Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Thanks for the mumble chinook 
try spell checker....
[00:55 EUR/USD: Slow Start To The Asian Session] Sydney September 15. A tight range of 1.2240/60 so far this morning, but market sentiment appears to be turning a little bearish as the 1.2300 offers prevail. There are stops at 1.2220, just below the overnight low at 1.2226 and if there is to be any volatility today, they appear vulnerable.
<pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2385(M) |hourly highs Aug 16, 17 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at]
: 1.2325(M) |daily high Aug 23 |flat on a failure | [1.2292]
: 1.2305(M) |daily high Sep 10 |buy a break above |
: 1.2290(M) |trendline resistance |expect stalling |Open|14/09/04
[1.2250] 01:00 GMT WED 15 SEP : | TIME 14 11|
: 1.2225(M) |daily low Sept 13 |buy a bounce | |
: 1.2205(M) |pullback low Sept 10 |buy a bounce |TGT |
: 1.2160(M) |daily low Sept 9 |buy a bounce |Stop|
: 1.2115(M) |failure highs Sept 7 |buy a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>EUR/USD is consolidating the rally from 1.2030-1.2310 last week but the band is narrowing and now seems to be locked 0.2230/1.2290. This consolidation may need to continue for the next day or so. Intraday traders can trade the 1.2230/90 band but keep stops tight outside the range.Ultimately we prefer the rally to resume, close above 1.2310 signals upmove underway.
I thought the pair hit it on nicely around 21:00 EST ...
edit: It was a quick 8-tick long-affair after all, and the reports say :
[01:31 GMT Sep 15th] USD/JPY remains ensconced in a core 109.50-110.00 range and it seems fading break-outs towards 109.00 and 111.00 extremes remains profitable. From an Asian high of 110.13 yesterday, it fell to as low as 109.37. USD/JPY is trading back at 109.65/70 at writing on the back of Japanese importer settlements at the Tokyo fix as well as short-covering, in this pair and in some of the yen crosses. No break-out near term is in sight with bids still seen firm in the low-109 area and offering interest strong towards 110.50, if not just above 110.00. Yesterday, Japanese exporters were repeat sellers on moves towards 110.10. Expectations for more range trading is evident in option vols. One-week vols are trading on the 7% handle now and term vols looks to be breaking back below 9%. On EUR/JPY, the bullish bias yesterday may have been a bit premature. Despite strong technicals, it seems fresh moves higher in the cross will require a decisive EUR/USD break above 1.2300, something that might not be in the cards yet. The cross fell to 134.10 overnight before stabilizing. With the market still seen long, some more weakness may be seen.
<pre>| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2385(M) |hourly highs Aug 16, 17 |flat on a failure | [FLAT at]
: 1.2325(M) |daily high Aug 23 |flat on a failure | [1.2292]
: 1.2305(M) |daily high Sep 10 |buy a break above |
: 1.2290(M) |trendline resistance |expect stalling |Open|14/09/04
[1.2250] 01:00 GMT WED 15 SEP : | TIME 14 11|
: 1.2225(M) |daily low Sept 13 |buy a bounce | |
: 1.2205(M) |pullback low Sept 10 |buy a bounce |TGT |
: 1.2160(M) |daily low Sept 9 |buy a bounce |Stop|
: 1.2115(M) |failure highs Sept 7 |buy a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>EUR/USD is consolidating the rally from 1.2030-1.2310 last week but the band is narrowing and now seems to be locked 0.2230/1.2290. This consolidation may need to continue for the next day or so. Intraday traders can trade the 1.2230/90 band but keep stops tight outside the range.Ultimately we prefer the rally to resume, close above 1.2310 signals upmove underway.
I thought the pair hit it on nicely around 21:00 EST ...
edit: It was a quick 8-tick long-affair after all, and the reports say :
[01:31 GMT Sep 15th] USD/JPY remains ensconced in a core 109.50-110.00 range and it seems fading break-outs towards 109.00 and 111.00 extremes remains profitable. From an Asian high of 110.13 yesterday, it fell to as low as 109.37. USD/JPY is trading back at 109.65/70 at writing on the back of Japanese importer settlements at the Tokyo fix as well as short-covering, in this pair and in some of the yen crosses. No break-out near term is in sight with bids still seen firm in the low-109 area and offering interest strong towards 110.50, if not just above 110.00. Yesterday, Japanese exporters were repeat sellers on moves towards 110.10. Expectations for more range trading is evident in option vols. One-week vols are trading on the 7% handle now and term vols looks to be breaking back below 9%. On EUR/JPY, the bullish bias yesterday may have been a bit premature. Despite strong technicals, it seems fresh moves higher in the cross will require a decisive EUR/USD break above 1.2300, something that might not be in the cards yet. The cross fell to 134.10 overnight before stabilizing. With the market still seen long, some more weakness may be seen.