Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

[chinook]

Quote from trade-ya1:

I lead a crazy life. I can't sleep when the market is moving against me because I feel like I need to get out if things move strongly. I can't sleep if the market is moving for me because I want to watch and see how much it's moving and I get too curious to sleep. Problem: trading too much size. Solution: cut size significantly. Alternative: stay awake until i drop. Better just watch Howard Stern show.

I go through a similar phase too. Plus, I don't think I make the best trading decisions when I load too much size.

Chinook

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from chinook:

I go through a similar phase too. Plus, I don't think I make the best trading decisions when I load too much size.
Chinook

... and this is the main reason I scalp -- I sleep like a small baby.


BTW nice death-spike after the numbers.

 

[sulong]

Quote from zirjeo:


ok so one trader sells and another buys moving the currency pair higher, I assume these are large market makers and not small traders like myself?

One trader or thousands of traders, it don't matter. All that matters is the "price action"

otherwise if its just a small fish why wouldn't he want the price to fly up in his direction?

It don't matter what "he" wants. What matters is "his" breaking point.(Stop out point)

now im lost, how is this showing a loss for those that entered i thought they didn't want price to exceed, and what is the best perceived price at the time?

In writing "showing a loss", I was attempting to to illustrate which price I was referring to.

Traders who have a specific entry strategy, know what their entry price ought to be before they enter, and also their "add to" price.

the econ report was not positive so now everyone is selling their positions or being stopped out. others are shorting and jumping in for the ride down.

Yes.

 

[csaunders]

Yeah baby! - lets see if 23 breaks now. I reckon so... lets see with what kinda follow through (if it does)

 

[TradingWise]

Quote from csaunders:

Yeah baby! - lets see if 23 breaks now. I reckon so... lets see with what kinda follow through (if it does)

If 23 breaks, the downtrend will probably be gone. Don't know if it will break that easy.

Nice spike, double one actually.

 

[Gringinho]

<pre>
| [ EUR/USD TRADING PAGE ]
| [SPOT] |[TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE] |[RECOMMENDATION] | [POSITION]
: 1.2465(M) |daily high Jul 19 |flat on a failure | [LONG at]
: 1.2385(M) |hourly highs Aug 16, 17 |take profit, buy break | [1.2245]
: 1.2325(M) |daily high Aug 23 |raise stops on a break |
: 1.2305(M) |daily high Sep 10 |flat on a failure |Open|09/09/04

[1.2286] 13:00 GMT TUE 14 SEP : | TIME 23 26|

: 1.2225(M) |daily low Sept 13 |sell stops below | |
: 1.2205(M) |pullback low Sept 10 |buy a bounce |TGT |1.2380
: 1.2160(M) |daily low Sept 9 |buy a bounce |Stop|1.2215
: 1.2115(M) |failure highs Sept 7 |buy a bounce |
============|==========================|=========================|=============</pre>
Rebounds out of 1.2225 again and has broken above previous session tops around 1.2280. Hourly studies are bullish and there is scope for a push higher to test the 1.2305 resistance level. Long trades are in play although as daily charts test overbought levels we are wary of further gains past here. Will flat another failure for profit if given the chance.

[12:56 EUR/USD: Loses Conviction On Approach of 1.2300] Boston, September 14: Dealers report profit-taking on rallies with an overhang of longs still in the market from Friday"s rally. Small stops above the 1.2285 level were tripped but there was insufficient momentum to try and tackle offers toward 1.2310. With the ZEW quite weak, many are having trouble getting aggressively bullish in EUR/USD, forcing them to look elsewhere for USD-bearish plays. Dealers note commercial selling by the ECB on rallies this morning, helping keep a lid on things.

[12:06 GMT 14th Sept] Support in [EUR/USD] at 1.2225 has kicked in now and the pre-data sell off by German names now looks to have abated. With the publication of the ZEW immanent traders witnessed German dealers sell [EUR/USD] and with the publication of the poor number the rumour mill was rife with calls of a leak but the damage had already been done. Ahead of today"s double-header of US data the USD has stalled in the broader market but with the EUR also slipping intraday on poor numbers the outlook is bearish. Having toyed with a bullish attempt at 1.2300 in early European trade the bias could remain in limbo if the USD is hurt by retail sales. However retail sales are expected to be poor and the market looks to have priced in a weak number of -0.1%. What traders are now musing over is a continued poor capital account figure. Over the last three quarters there has been an outflow of some USD40Bn and a continuation of this trend is likely to damage USD sentiment in the longer-run. [EUR/USD] is likely to test 1.2200 on a positive number but the downside still looks well fortified so we still favour a gradual move back to the top of recent range around 1.2260.

 

[chinook]

After the initial spike, the bonds went south. I ended up shorting EurUSd too early and kept shorting it. Ayway, I'm trying to make up for the initial losses now--I'm almost there.

Chinook

 

[csaunders]

Quote from TradingWise:

If 23 breaks, the downtrend will probably be gone. Don't know if it will break that easy.

Nice spike, double one actually.

I still have hope for the downtrend to continue up to circa 1.24

EUR taking strain now... although should get a second breath.

 

[chinook]

I'm obsessively trying to make up for the morning's losses. I made back about 80%. I'm still short biased. But the 1.2250 level might be the inflection point here...

Chinook

 

[Gringinho]

I have a slight long bias myself - but am currently not in a trade. The deficit issue is a mounting serious problem, and the previsions of slower world growth in 2005 is not boding well for the US being capable of attracting even more money to finance the growing deficit.