Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Hmmm.... I just went back through all the Yellen headlines and stories on the Dow Jones Newswire and they didn't mention the comment on the $. Does anyone know how much a Reuters' terminal is?
 
The sudden move late in the session nuked my shorts! I'm glad I got stopped out before the Globex session break. I had decent profits but gave back most of it. Oh well, hopefully we'll see some wilder action tomorrow.

Chinook
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

What did he say that was bullish for the EUR and GBP anyway? I can't find why the market is reacting like this. Not that I am complaining. I have the biggest long EUR position on that I've ever had in my life now.
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Lucky you. You got a late day bonus of 60 pips so far :) Otherwise, we'd still be around 1.2180.

Chinook
 
Sometimes better to be lucky than smart. I think it was the Yellen comments that caused the move. $/Yen isn't moving much. Strange movement in FX land thus far.
 
I agree about being lucky than smart. It's much easier when one accepts that this is almost like a game of chance.

I'm betting that we'll go back to 1.2180 later tonight. I'm short now. This feels like short covering than real buying.

Chinook
 
I would be nervous about being short here. The biggest moves often start this way (seemingly for no reason). I might agree with you if the after-hours move wasn't as sharp. However, the fact that they could take it up so aggressively on nothing means that there is a real lack of EUR sellers. If the demand/supply equation were more balanced, they wouldn't be able to run this thing up so high. It traded up to 1.2249 which is about +60 ticks from the close. That is a REAL significant move especially with vol. as low as it's been in the EUR. To me, the fact that it could be driven up this much (and sustained for more than a few minutes), regardless of the reason, shows a real lack of supply of EUR for sale. Best, Neal.
 
Chances are that trade numbers on friday will be very bad given the high oil prices, but this might be priced in already ... Most big rides seem to come when the movement is counter-intuitive at first. Then the movement gets pushed a long way and stops triggered along the way exacerbates the move. :)
Given the disappointing Japanese GDP revisions, the USD feelings seem mixed - and very cautious with regards to Al-Qaeda.

Sometimes "normality" seem much safer than the "exceptional" alternative. That probably makes the EUR and CHF a good choice many times.

Given the gloomy 2005 outlook in the US and the EU, which will be the safer haven ? I opt for € on the long run, but follow strong USD patriotism many times. I guess tomorrow will likely see a continuation of the last few days move - hunting down more stops as the week ends - possibly cooling down with narrow profit taking.
 
At the expense of looking like talking my book (which I am), days like tomorrow could yield a 2+ big figure move in the EUR. Nobody was able to buy the EUR on this move. It happened during US hours 4:30-6:00 pm, EST. That is no man's land. Nobody around the globe is really trading at that hour. The EUR is going to come into the numbers tomorrow pressing the highs (up maybe 50-70 ticks) and nobody is going to want to go buy it up that much prior to the figures. That will set up a very likely scenario that the EUR rallies further after the figure. I can see (hope) that the EUR is +150 ticks tomorrow after the figure and then people will throw in the towel and start buying it taking it +200 or more. My best guess is that we go into the weekend pressing the 1.2370 level which is a key level causing people to either go long the EUR into the weekend or risk another big run-up in after hours (Sunday night/Monday) with big buy stops set off on a break of that level. I had a dream about this once :-).
 
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