Quote from chinook:
Pejman,
Are you betting on any side? What time frames do you usually trade?
Chinook
I don't bet. I trade multiple time frames depending on my data. Intraday multi-day reversal patterns (20-30 days) are always my favorite. I also like the long-term trend as established by daily and weekly data. My data on most asset classes goes back to 1980. When considering a trade because I have an idea or there is a macro theme developing, before I lay on any position, I examine all time frames on the technicals and use either the short term time frame, or all time frames, as my timing edge to get an optimum entry price.
Also, it all depends on the market as well. Although I don't use technicals as primary reasons to put on a trade initially, I do use technicals to manage a position while the primary non-technical reason remains valid. And I also use technicals to alert me when that primary reason may be changing, so I start doing extensive research. Whatever "tool" I use to trade, I've spent the past 12 years studying that tool as extensive as I can. I read so much, all the time, that it could be considered "OCD", but I guess it's a good thing, no?
IMHO, one needs to be aware of all time frames such that they are aware of potential pivots in the market that don't come as a surprise. There are several economic/business cycles that have varying time spans, as Schumpeter likes to say, that each time frame is a reflection of those various cycles like Kondratief for example, which is extremely long-term (multiple decades).
Why shouldn't one sell and take profits in a long-term trade that's not done yet because he feels it's about to hit a major level on short-term or intermediate time frames, or make a counter-trend move like a multi-day reversal that forms on an intraday chart over 25 days? Taking profits and re-establishing at better prices is always the best feeling, but I'm willing to pay up if I got out and it didn't reverse, and will simply consider the higher cost as a small insurance policy. Either way, it's an effective strategy for me. I don't think this is the "holy grail", nor that I'm anything but a never-ending student of the market, and there are others on this board that I have tremendous respect for like trade-ya1, who is willing to take large positions and employ risk discipline only seen in the most skilled traders.
Sorry for the long answer version.
Lastly, regarding our present topic of the EUR/USD, I feel the EUR has topped and is now in a defined downtrend and setting up for an initial move to 1.1600. But I'm probably wrong as there are others that disagree with me and I'm sure they have much more knowledge than I.
Best,
Pejman Hamidi
"The Rookie"
