Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

I have not looked out at the longer periods, but I have noticed that when one pair goes up another one goes down on the 5min, 1 hr, 3 or 4 hr chart. Some also move together...

These pairs I cited do not do this. I have held postions for several days with them not reacting to each other the same...

Take a look, and see for yourself in realtime...

Michael B.



Quote from SteveL91:

I'm not really sure if finding non-correlated pairs is really necessary. Also, over what time frame is the data showing those three pairs to move independently of each other? I'm just curious if it's a long-term relationship or short term (i.e. years vs. months).

For what it's worth, from my admittedly very limited experience, the currency markets seem to move in cycles where there will be one or two (maybe more?) "favored" currencies. For example, now it seems the Yen is being pursued rather aggresively in most cases. Now, I have no idea if it's valid; it's merely something I've noticed.
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How do you guys handle taking profits in FX markets? I usually go after intraday trends swings of 30-40+ pips. I know there's no one fits all answers. If you think the market is in a range, then one can take profits at set targets but then you'll miss a lot if a nice trend starts. If you think the market is trending and trail then you might give back more than %50 of profits. Possibly best answer is in scaling in and out.

Lately, I missed some good trends believing that the market will be in a range. Before this I was trying hunt trends and giving back profits in a range bound market. I feel like I was 90 degrees out of phase with the market.

Once you exit a position thinking that the trend is over after a 100 pip High-Low day, you might see another 30-40 pips free-fall or straight vertical line in your charts. Then the market will continue maybe 30-40 pips in a more zigzag way.

How do you manage positions once you're in a trade? I guess the main question is do you try to predict if there'll be more trending or choppiness coming up.

Thanks,

Chinook
 
Quote from chinook:

How do you guys handle taking profits in FX markets? I usually go after intraday trends swings of 30-40+ pips. I know there's no one fits all answers. If you think the market is in a range, then one can take profits at set targets but then you'll miss a lot if a nice trend starts. If you think the market is trending and trail then you might give back more than %50 of profits. Possibly best answer is in scaling in and out.

Lately, I missed some good trends believing that the market will be in a range. Before this I was trying hunt trends and giving back profits in a range bound market. I feel like I was 90 degrees out of phase with the market.

Once you exit a position thinking that the trend is over after a 100 pip High-Low day, you might see another 30-40 pips free-fall or straight vertical line in your charts. Then the market will continue maybe 30-40 pips in a more zigzag way.

How do you manage positions once you're in a trade? I guess the main question is do you try to predict if there'll be more trending or choppiness coming up.

Thanks,

Chinook
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Trading intraday I always find that if I'm really happy with my profits, it's usually a good time to exit the trade. If it turns out to be a trend day you can always get back in for more. I find that I can think better after I exit the trade. Also, I try not to beat myself up over missed pips. Realize that if you average 20 pips a day and use 10 to 1 leverage you will double your account in less than 10 weeks. As long as you increase your position size as your account grows, the compounding effect will turn $10,000 into $1,000,000 in about 14 months. If you get 100 pips in a day and miss the next 30 or 40, so what? You have just made enough for the whole week. Congratulate yourself and be patient enough to wait for the next high reward to risk trade.

Cheers
 
Quote from TRADERguy:

Trading intraday I always find that if I'm really happy with my profits, it's usually a good time to exit the trade. If it turns out to be a trend day you can always get back in for more. I find that I can think better after I exit the trade. Also, I try not to beat myself up over missed pips. Realize that if you average 20 pips a day and use 10 to 1 leverage you will double your account in less than 10 weeks. As long as you increase your position size as your account grows, the compounding effect will turn $10,000 into $1,000,000 in about 14 months. If you get 100 pips in a day and miss the next 30 or 40, so what? You have just made enough for the whole week. Congratulate yourself and be patient enough to wait for the next high reward to risk trade.

Cheers
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Sometimes I tell myself that I can't believe I made xxx pips within couple of hours, then it's a sign to call the day off! But anyway, I'm still trying to be systematic in profit taking so I don't beat myself up.

Thanks,

Chinook
 
Crude oil started sliding down but Euro spiked up around 10:30am EST. Now oil is at its support around 42.6 and Euro did a small spike down.

Chinook
 
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