Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from TRADERguy:

Ouch...did you get stoped out? I was thinking the 20 area but I gave it a little more room becuese of the time i.e. thin conditions.
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Yes, I got shaken out. This is my worst shake out recently. It went down free falling and then snapped right back. I'm not sure if I'll risk more tonight. Maybe if it retraces down to high 20s.

You're trading the FX Futures right?

Chinook
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Trades well now for the first time in days. I like the way it held with $/Yen going over 110. I'm talking my book of course, but, it is showing some rare recent strength here.
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Vols are getting decimated... the 7day atm straddle is trading at 100pips, unbelievable. The bear gamma leads to a vol-contraction, but this is ridiculous. I hope you're not long-vol Neal.
 
no i'm not long vol. do you think that i have all the bad positions? lol. that's one that i managed to sidestep. now that you mention it, seems really cheap (thinking of buying some), lol. seriously, probably has more to do with the time of year than anything else (nobody expecting any impetus for movement this vacation week).
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

no i'm not long vol. do you think that i have all the bad positions? lol. that's one that i managed to sidestep. now that you mention it, seems really cheap (thinking of buying some), lol. seriously, probably has more to do with the time of year than anything else (nobody expecting any impetus for movement this vacation week).
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Nah, Bro... I remember a post in which you were mentioning going long vol before the Jul non-farm report. The Sep 14th 1.2100 straddle is valued at 186pips. That should come in to 150 before the number, best to wait until shortly before the non-farm to buy gamma. On the Thursday prior to the release you'll be able to buy the one-week gamma for 125 or so.
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Chinook, i've got to give you an A for honesty.
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Thanks! I would to keep an honest thread so we can have some sincere discussions here. Plus, hopefully I'll get some feedback and perhaps motivate more idea exchanges.

Chinook
 
Thanks Riskarb but you must have me confused with someone else. I rarely trade options and actually have never traded options on the EUR (or really studied them much for that matter).

Chinook, I hate to say it but a long here against a stop at tonights low might be a good short-term trade. I'm really starting to suspect that I'm getting married to my positions! lol :0)

P.S. I'm not adding to positions here but I did just set some stops at tonights low and a little below that on some of the EUR that I'm carrying from the day session. With a snap-back like that, I don't think it should see that level again tonight and if it does, I want out of some of my position.
 
I'll try not to open new positions during the early Japanese sessions unless we make a significant double top or bottom. I'd better wait until 2-3am EST when the Europeans start trading. E/$ rarely trends during the Japanese sessions these days.

Chinook
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Thanks Riskarb but you must have me confused with someone else. I rarely trade options and actually have never traded options on the EUR (or really studied them much for that matter).

Chinook, I hate to say it but a long here against a stop at tonights low might be a good short-term trade. I'm really starting to suspect that I'm getting married to my positions! lol :0)

P.S. I'm not adding to positions here but I did just set some stops at tonights low and a little below that on some of the EUR that I'm carrying from the day session. With a snap-back like that, I don't think it should see that level again tonight and if it does, I want out of some of my position.
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Yeah, I went down like a ripe pear falling down from a tree shaken by a hungry bear :) Anyway, I might re-enter during the European session if there's a retrace. But probably I'll go to bed early and get rested well for tomorrow.

Chinook
 
I got out at 1.2161. Probably too soon but I had a good bit of leverage on this trade so I took my 20 pips. I'll get back in if there is more directional movement.

Cheers
 
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