Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from trade-ya1:

Thanks for your reply. While I agree that there is some short-term correlation between oil and all the other world markets (including EUR), I would offer that the overall and intermediate/longer term correlation is very weak. With that said, at this point in time, I would not want to be positioned in something that responds favorably when oil prices move lower. That is another trend not worth fighting. Scalping against the direction of the long-term trend is like pissing into the wind. You might get away with it, but sooner or later, you're going to get pee'd on. Anyway, I agree that 1.2380 seems to be resistance at this moment, however, it will soon get taken out and then it will become support. Nothing special about 1.2380. Best, Neal.
More...

Neal,

My problem is that I don't like macroeconomics and I don't want to sort through fundamental data. That's why I don't position myself long-term sand I really have NO idea what will happen. In my short-term time frame, if I lose thrice 10 pip trades but win once 50 pip trade than I'm happy. I'm short now but I can be long within 10 minutes if I feel that long side has more potential. Actually, we can be both making money in our time frames. Of course, you're a Megadolon compared to me :)

Cheers,

Chinook
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Incidentally, as a non-market maker or flow trader, you SHOULD have an opinion. One of your few edges is the ability to trade with the trend. With no opinion, or bias, you cannot have any basis in fact for decisions. Since you are not privy to order flow, you are essentially guessing if you are going to trade 2-sided. The guys with the edge or order-flow will eat you alive over time. Not wishing any harm, just adding my opinion. Best, Neal.
More...

I see what you're saying but our time frames are different. I trade with what I see as the trend in my time-frame. I have my opinion in the short time-frame. But I try not to get stubborn with it. My limited analysis is also showing EUR still in uptrend in larger time-frames. But in my short-term frame I'm betting downside.

Chinook
 
I don't trade fundamentals either. All you need in the currencies is to trade the trend (for that matter all products). If you can lose 10 pips three times and make 50 once, you are the king of the world! I just question the ability to do that with consistency since there seems to be no legitimate edge to the method. Luck can play a big factor in this game and can often fool one into thinking they have some edge. Best, Neal.
 
I understand what you are saying. I suppose that my belief is that the shorter the term that you look at trends, the less valid and more random they are. Nonetheless, I understand your thought process and your trade certainly seems to be accurate at the moment. Warm regards, Neal.
 
If you draw a trendline from the highs of 1.2925 along the tops, you'll see that it first hit the recent highs at 1.2380...as well as MACD divergences against the 1.2380 high, as well as 4 tops up there...looks like pretty decent resistance there. Looks like its easy to overlook someone else's opinion when you're blindly 'talking your book'.
 
lol, i like the phrase, 'blindly talking your book'. i think that is highly appropriate for some people on these threads. i don't find your analysis valid. thanks for providing me with the liquidity that i need to effectuate my trades. i always recognize that i could be wrong and that's why i always utilize stops. nonetheless, i am not wrong in this instance. :-)
 
trade-ya1,

I do think that I have an edge in tracking down the short-term trends. But Markets change. I also don't know how consistent I'll be in the future. Of course, luck helps us too. In a way, I see myself as gambling. It's OK as long as I don't lose control.

Sometimes, indeed the shorter time-frames are random. But sometimes the E/$ price chart might look random but not the GBPUSD. For me the trick is to wait patiently for those moments and then open a position. Of course, sometimes I have to feed my ego and wild gambler side and enter into random trades but that's OK too if I could keep my losses small. This trade is going OK so far I moved my stop loss to break even. I maxed out my leverage. If the price goes more in my direction, I have to unload some before higher margins kick in.

By the way, what kind of leverage do you use in currencies 1:50, 1:100 ?

Chinook
 
I understand. I use about 10:1. That is about standard for real money trading of commodity/currency products. The crazy leverage offered is ridiculous.
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

I understand. I use about 10:1. That is about standard for real money trading of commodity/currency products. The crazy leverage offered is ridiculous.
More...

I just made a quick calculation. The intraday margin for Euro FX futures is about 1:100--quite crazy too.

Chinook
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top