Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from sulong:

Chinook,
What is it exactly, you look for on a chart, to decide to enter or not?
What role, if any, does S/R, supply/demand have in your decision to enter the market?

And, what is your criteria for a "reasonable stop"? Some range you've tested?
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Hi Sulong,

The problem is that I don't have an "exact" recipe. I call all of the variables that I take into account "Fuzzy Blend". Anyway, first of all, I do some sort of intermarket analysis including bonds, GBP and lately oil. Sometimes these markets and Eurusd are correlated almost 1:1 but sometimes not. Then I look at the FX futures volume. Which direction does the volume favor...Resistance/support also factors in my decision. I don't use any popular indicators except a moving average to track trends.

Regarding stops, I usually set them 3-6 ticks away from local minima/maxima. From my entry the stops are usually 8-15 ticks away. Of course, the hardest part is when to take profits. This is the part that drives me crazy.

What about your entry decisions and stops? Are you doing this
full-time?

Chinook
 
Quote from chinook:

OK. Long trade worked well as planned. Now I have no idea what this'll do next. But I don't think it'll go up straight. If it'll rally, it might test the lows. Depending on the price action, I might get short or long. I have a feeling that we'll see a smooth sine curve with a 30 pips peak-to-peak amplitude.

Chinook
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We only saw about lambda/2 sine curve before E/$ shot up. I might go long after it pulls back about 10-15 pips from 1.2320.

Chinook

Edit: I'll wait for a deeper pullback to ~1.2300.
 
Quote from chinook:

We only saw about lambda/2 sine curve before E/$ shot up. I might go long after it pulls back about 10-15 pips from 1.2320.

Chinook

Edit: I'll wait for a deeper pullback to ~1.2300.
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I ended up shorting at 1.2318!
 
Quote from chinook:

Hi Sulong,


What about your entry decisions and stops? Are you doing this
full-time?

Chinook
More...

Usually, I'm active only in the morning. This week has been very trying. I had computer problems sun. and mon., Then tues eve. there was a fire down the block, and all the phone lines in the neighborhood got burned up. That was fixed on thurs.
So that left me with this morn. for trading.

I trade strictly on S/R, S/D. the lion share of my activity is on usd/jpy, I find it easier to keep straight when I focus on just one trade at a time.

My initial stop is 9+ the spread, and then adjust as the trade progresses.
When my inital stop gets hit, it's usually one of two reasons.
I enter too early, ( read impatience) the most likely villain.
Or I've lost track of time, and enter too close to an econ. report.

:)
 
No offense intended Chinook, but you short EUR guys should really give it a rest. You are going to win small battles but lose the big war. The EUR is clearly going higher and trades really strong overall. It cannot sustain any appreciable dip and closed at a near-term high as recently as yesterday. It's clearly just basing and chopping getting ready for another move higher consistent with the long-term trend. Have you looked at a 2 year daily chart of this sucker? Please do so and then tell me how you can be short? You've got 50 pips to the downside at 10 big figures to the upside. Which do you chose? I sold $185 Million EUR today at an average of 1.2351 taking a loss on my overnight position and I re-entered at an average of about 1.2309 with a full position. You are going to miss a vicious move to the upside in EUR at anytime. I can't predict such short-term movements but it wouldn't surprise me to see EUR close higher today. Best of luck, Neal.
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

No offense intended Chinook, but you short EUR guys should really give it a rest. You are going to win small battles but lose the big war. The EUR is clearly going higher and trades really strong overall. It cannot sustain any appreciable dip and closed at a near-term high as recently as yesterday. It's clearly just basing and chopping getting ready for another move higher consistent with the long-term trend. Have you looked at a 2 year daily chart of this sucker? Please do so and then tell me how you can be short? You've got 50 pips to the downside at 10 big figures to the upside. Which do you chose? I sold $185 Million EUR today at an average of 1.2351 taking a loss on my overnight position and I re-entered at an average of about 1.2309 with a full position. You are going to miss a vicious move to the upside in EUR at anytime. I can't predict such short-term movements but it wouldn't surprise me to see EUR close higher today. Best of luck, Neal.
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Hi Neal,

You might be right about the long term trend of Euro/$. I'm just trying to catch small term swings. I was briefly long today too.
I agree that I've been mostly short biased this week and missed some nice upside moves. Last week, i got in some nice long moves.

Oil's going down!!!! Euro immediately responded to it...

I try not to have strong biases so I can play both sides.

Chinook
 
Thanks for your reply. While I agree that there is some short-term correlation between oil and all the other world markets (including EUR), I would offer that the overall and intermediate/longer term correlation is very weak. With that said, at this point in time, I would not want to be positioned in something that responds favorably when oil prices move lower. That is another trend not worth fighting. Scalping against the direction of the long-term trend is like pissing into the wind. You might get away with it, but sooner or later, you're going to get pee'd on. Anyway, I agree that 1.2380 seems to be resistance at this moment, however, it will soon get taken out and then it will become support. Nothing special about 1.2380. Best, Neal.
 
Incidentally, as a non-market maker or flow trader, you SHOULD have an opinion. One of your few edges is the ability to trade with the trend. With no opinion, or bias, you cannot have any basis in fact for decisions. Since you are not privy to order flow, you are essentially guessing if you are going to trade 2-sided. The guys with the edge or order-flow will eat you alive over time. Not wishing any harm, just adding my opinion. Best, Neal.
 
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