Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from alex.samant:

do any of you trade with pivot points? just curious...
they work on currency futures, but on the forex, sometimes it gets blurry
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If you mean reaction highs/lows then yes on FX Futures--only a fool trades the cash. They are very easy to see--I use them for stops.
 
i just bought some Euros (basis 1.2740 in Dec. futures). I'm a long-term position trader and haven't been active in Eur in a long time. Will continue to buy dips and trade EUR from the long side looking for a large and extended move to the upside on a longer-term basis based upon a combination of fundamental and technical factors.
 
the EURUSD was in a very narrow multi-week range, inside a narrow multi-month range. Near dated Implied vols collapsed to ~ 6.5% (near all time low apparently - unable to verify). this implies trend following traders and gamma buyers have been getting killed and are therefore sparsely represented in the current population of position holders in this cross; ie gamma sellers and mean-reverters are ascendant (profitable) but it is their stops that provide the fuel for movement.

so now we breakout on news and i think the market is on average skeptical as to whether the breakout has legs because "we all know the dollar is going to get weaker in the long term"...

=>probably the right bet here is to just sell downside breakouts or sell rallies.

Q1
 
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