Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

if i can prove to you the system, would you give in? (i don't have it... again it is an assumption) What would that experience tell you?

Isnt't this a problem with the way we percieve reality? Isn't a problem the fact that we THINK we know things just because WE have certain features?
 
Quote from alex.samant:

if i can prove to you the system, would you give in? (i don't have it... again it is an assumption) What would that experience tell you?

Isnt't this a problem with the way we percieve reality? Isn't a problem the fact that we THINK we know things just because WE have certain features?
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It is possible to trade without indicators and oscillators, but the trader is more effective with them and more profitable with them. You would need to prove that the price alone system outstrips the one with indicators and oscillators. Possible, but odds are heavily against this proposal. It's better just to keep the the full roadmap at your disposal. That is the route with all the posted signs. There is no reason not to use the signals coupled with price. That is very stubborn.
 
i used to rely on a system of trendlines and price projections to find out trends on higher level charts and then return to the lower level charts to find out support and resistance where the market would likely be able to turn in the direction of the main trend. This system was good, and although more efficient than it's oscillator and indicator peer, had to involve many calculations, susceptible to mistakes.

For instance, i will give you an example.

You can use a trendline on a 60 min chart to indicate the trend. If it is, say down, you would look to sell rallies. Now, on the 15 min chart you would expect a breakout to the downside of a trendline, after price has rallied and hit a resistance pivot point, in order to play short. You would take profits at pivot lines and midpoints in between.

This is a simple example, of how you can base your system only on price and MATHS.

Of course there are qualifiers for a trendline and means to project price into the future, but all that is explained in the works of people like Tom deMark, Steve Nisson, etc.


The same thing happens if you apply a moving average on the 60 min chart and look for a RSI overbought/oversold on the 15 min to enter your play.

These two systems follow pretty much the same strategy, but the first one is pure mathematics and it plays in a more exact fashion.

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This is an example to show you that, while you are right, it is easier with indicators, the linear nature in which they are calculated is a drawdown to potential profits and also puts you at greater risk because of the fact that most of them are lagging, the trend followers, and most of them are early, the oscillators.

I find it easier to rely on indicators because i have learned their behaviour, but in an objective way, price techniques are far better.

IMHO

It ony takes getting rid of ignorance and studying hard, and after that, testing, testing, testing, trading, trading, trading, losing, losing, losing, and then trading some more... and maybe at some point start winning.

:) hope i did not confuse anyone.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Daytrading as a way to keep from gambling with large amounts is wrongheaded at best by the way. Daytrading is gambling--Position trading is not.
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Interesting comment on daytrading vs. position trading. I have found that there is no particular edge or advantage to the trader in closing out positions at a certain time of day. The market structure doesn't seem to be set up that way. It seems to run in a continuous cycle blurring days, weeks etc. In other words, the market doesn't seem to care that you wish to be flat by a certain time. And there is a certain edge or advantage that can be gained simply by being willing to ride out positions between sessions and over multiple sessions. I guess after a certain period of time market participants tend to get worn out, give up and toss it in, and that's when those who are willing to ride out those positions capture an advantage. My method is to scalp around the positions I take - taking advantage of the short-term advantages to cash out, and play for better prices.
 
well, it's a two sided story.

Every session, the london, new york and asian sessions have their moves and one can be a day trader if he/she focuses on the session he is in.

It is no point in being a day trader and looking at 4 hour charts... That is the truth, you have to quasi-scalp. But in any way, you need to have a system that CLEARLY specifies when to exit based on price and time.

Now, if you, however have the strength to ignore sessions and trade whenver, you can do it, but you lifestyle is completely thrashed.

So my advice is that if you are from the US, trade the new york session, if you are in europe, trade the london session, and so on....

I think there is no human way possible to be in between. You either are a position or a day/session trader.
 
I wake up when the Asian Session begins (9 am Sydney time) and watch it for an hour or two if I see something good. Like yesterday I put on a short swisy trade at like 3am GMT (midday here - 9 pm ET). Then I might go for a swim, eat and if price has moved my way - put stop to BE. I have my targets which usually take between a few hours to a maximum of a day to be hit. I ALWAYS watch the European open and if I havnt put on a trade by then - this is my main action time (6 am GMT onwards). If my Trade hits the target in this time then that is it for the day. If there is something big on in the US Open (around 13.20 GMT when globex opens), I will put on a position if again I see something too good to pass up. I put my stop to Break even, even after half an hour of putting on a trade, set my target and then go out, relax or go to bed.

I am single, reclusive, slightly mad and can have this sort of lifestyle. Asia is a good time zone to do like this. I do not daytrade as 1 trade a day is about my average - that is about what my nerves can handle. I do not position trade as I am never in for more than 24 hours. And I ALWAYS trade across two or more sessions. I am NOT glued to the screen (check every 15 minutes unless I am onto something - then I'm glued...)

Hope this helps.

Quote from alex.samant:

Now, if you, however have the strength to ignore sessions and trade whenver, you can do it, but you lifestyle is completely thrashed.
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Agree that the lifestyle thing is complex to work out. I spent the past few years getting into auto trading, and now have a system set up that technically runs well enough for me to be comfortable stepping away more and more and the system portion is profitable enough since turning it on to give me confidence in its future performance and comfortable with how it trades.
 
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