Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

This pair is balancing the top of a distribution curve that dates back to June. 2970 is the top and expected target at this point.

Notice that the current month distribution looks fairly balanced. We have tested the top. If buyers do not carry us up from here, we will likely revert to the testing the middle to bottom of the curve and could go South to look for buyers.

The Magenta colored line at the top (2932) is strong resistance. You can see that it stopped the assault today. If we build value here and move up, it is a strong signal. Otherwise, look for moves down as indicated on the curve.

Some may think this is unrelated, but I do not. The USDJPY has a very strong chance of breaking out of its current balanced distribution. If it heads up, then it is going to move strongly.

DRT
 

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

The Euro on the daily chart has taken 17 calendar days to achieve the top that was created on Aug 4. That is not storming ahead. Beyond that, the weekly chart shows a developing divergence potential on price and indicators. To achieve a divergence, we would need to take out the May Highs and then reverse. Of course, we don't have to take out the highs or have a divergence to reverse lower and the weekly chart is showing the signs of weakness. While the daily chart does not outright say lower yet, the weekly is brewing this weakness. Intraday shorts should be looked at seriously from this point on if you are an intraday trader. and long termers like myself (I am not short yet), should watch the weekly and daily for a reversal.
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Thank you for the explanation. Very interesting commentary.

Cheers,

Ivan
 
Without some kind of divergence signal or similar short sinal on the daily or perhaps the hourly, I would most likely not get short until the reaction low of 8/14/06 is taken out. The daily chart does have a good bit of momentum, it's just the "storming ahead" that I question.
 
Why don't you gin one up for us and post it. I am not much of a technician.

--bull

Quote from dentist007:

usdbull.i am very confused by the lines you have drawn on the last chart you posted.from what i can see from youre chart.the downtrend line should have been drawn from the high of feb 05 connecting to the high of aug 05.the line extended.then a new uptrend line drawn when this downtrend line was breached.imo,these should have been the only significant lines on that chart
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