Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
>Just saying that my name is a joke: Ivanovich. I'm not Russian
Ok. I should guess
Gongratulations with CABLE!!!
I've been figuring out what forex is over 6 months or so, yesterday I opened a demo with Oanda and at midnight (Moscow time) I've made my first order with EUR/JPY, just because it's around historical year minimum:
At that time price was around 130.90 and went on higher. I don't know why but I decided to make this order:
Long 500,000 units @ 130.84 with stop @ 130,63
And went sleep. At morning it's very astonishing not to see the price is around 131,5, but that before the price after 131,7 changed direction on opposite and drawn to 130.79 and only next the big rally was started.
Now I'm thinking whether to take profit or hold the position and what next stop order to make.
update: I think now it's really the start of the trend and what's going now is catching for stops or euro session correction.
Ok. I should guess
Gongratulations with CABLE!!!
I've been figuring out what forex is over 6 months or so, yesterday I opened a demo with Oanda and at midnight (Moscow time) I've made my first order with EUR/JPY, just because it's around historical year minimum:
At that time price was around 130.90 and went on higher. I don't know why but I decided to make this order:
Long 500,000 units @ 130.84 with stop @ 130,63
And went sleep. At morning it's very astonishing not to see the price is around 131,5, but that before the price after 131,7 changed direction on opposite and drawn to 130.79 and only next the big rally was started.
Now I'm thinking whether to take profit or hold the position and what next stop order to make.
update: I think now it's really the start of the trend and what's going now is catching for stops or euro session correction.
>Are you using the game account?
A year ago I've started learning what equity market is and few months later what forex is. Until nearest future I didn't make real orders. Concerning that order it was demo, but i would have done the same as it was real one, honestly
>What part of Moscow you live around? I'm near Mayakovka.
Lucky man to escape traffic jams
I live in Southwest area and lucky to breathe fresher air
A year ago I've started learning what equity market is and few months later what forex is. Until nearest future I didn't make real orders. Concerning that order it was demo, but i would have done the same as it was real one, honestly
>What part of Moscow you live around? I'm near Mayakovka.
Lucky man to escape traffic jams
I live in Southwest area and lucky to breathe fresher air
Hello mate,
So what's your next move?
I went long EUR/JPY at 131.22, but it hit my stop loss 130.80. It looked as though EURJPY was good for a rally to 133 till the end of the week, but even though its recovered to 131.80, I'm relunctant to get back in, simply because of my money management rules and because of daily limits on trade. Perhaps I should be more flexible but for now, I have to stick to the plan.
I'm still short EURUSD at 1.2227, but I think after greenspan USD will strengthen up again. I'm waiting till Friday before even considering taking a loss on this one. Might hold it over the weekend even and have a long stop loss on this one. Am I mad (Skalpz please chime in and remind me you are over a 1000 pips down, it makes me feel better. For a while I read over that sentence to give me solice, but the effect is wearing off...)
Any advice?
Honestly, I was more kidding on the "Uncle Ivan" comment than anything else. I don't know any more or less than anyone else.
But from where I stand, the EUR is at critical mass. It's looking for direction, and being pulled in both directions as the market tries to get a grip on what you and I are discussing right now.
Key risks for EUR: The EZ is standing on the brink of emotional panic. Now, before you go "you're overstating that, aren't you?" I'm not talking about truth, I'm talking about perception. All it takes is for one more setback on a political front for one of the members and the Euro will be back in slam mode. Add to this the Eurozone's dismal economic performance AND the growing possibility that the ECB will be cutting rates soon to appease Germany, France and Belgium, and you have a big weight on the EUR.
Key risks for USD: Last friday's NFP number was nothing short of sickening. But that number has always been exceptionally random. We had two disappointing numbers in the beginning of the year, and everyone was chanting that the Fed would put hiking on hold. They never did. Then we had a powerhouse number and it was full steam ahead. Now again we're back at a lower number and people are calling for the Fed to pause in one of it's next two sessions. People are bringing up that "Soft patch" phrase again (it's getting worn out). But what if they're right, and old Al decides to hold? That would signal to the market that the Fed is concerned about growth in order for them to back off the "neutral" target of 3.75% at YE. Also, G8 is coming into play, and China is in attendance. While unlikely to get China to move, the market will do again what it does best - speculate. Causing USD to drop against JPY.
So what do I suggest? I suggest staying the hell away from the Euro for the next week or so and playing some GBP or AUD. They seem safe bets (key word: Seem) at the moment, which is why I went with them before and am looking to re-establish into them on a dip.
I like the CAD as well, because it's more of a technical player and less of a fundamental maniac.
Cheers.
-Ivan
But from where I stand, the EUR is at critical mass. It's looking for direction, and being pulled in both directions as the market tries to get a grip on what you and I are discussing right now.
Key risks for EUR: The EZ is standing on the brink of emotional panic. Now, before you go "you're overstating that, aren't you?" I'm not talking about truth, I'm talking about perception. All it takes is for one more setback on a political front for one of the members and the Euro will be back in slam mode. Add to this the Eurozone's dismal economic performance AND the growing possibility that the ECB will be cutting rates soon to appease Germany, France and Belgium, and you have a big weight on the EUR.
Key risks for USD: Last friday's NFP number was nothing short of sickening. But that number has always been exceptionally random. We had two disappointing numbers in the beginning of the year, and everyone was chanting that the Fed would put hiking on hold. They never did. Then we had a powerhouse number and it was full steam ahead. Now again we're back at a lower number and people are calling for the Fed to pause in one of it's next two sessions. People are bringing up that "Soft patch" phrase again (it's getting worn out). But what if they're right, and old Al decides to hold? That would signal to the market that the Fed is concerned about growth in order for them to back off the "neutral" target of 3.75% at YE. Also, G8 is coming into play, and China is in attendance. While unlikely to get China to move, the market will do again what it does best - speculate. Causing USD to drop against JPY.
So what do I suggest? I suggest staying the hell away from the Euro for the next week or so and playing some GBP or AUD. They seem safe bets (key word: Seem) at the moment, which is why I went with them before and am looking to re-establish into them on a dip.
I like the CAD as well, because it's more of a technical player and less of a fundamental maniac.
Cheers.
-Ivan
One last thing I'd like to add. If you want to short EUR, do it around 1.2330 or so with a tight stop at 1.2345.
the 1.2340 is being perceived as a double top, and there are rumors about some CBs selling into that number. But stops are right around it. So if it breaks, it might break hard.
the 1.2340 is being perceived as a double top, and there are rumors about some CBs selling into that number. But stops are right around it. So if it breaks, it might break hard.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Just saying that my name is a joke: Ivanovich. I'm not Russian
Where are you originally from - English does seem to be your first language? And have you managed to learn Russian?
Congrats on the engagement by the way.
Things are in limbo at the moment till Greenie gives direction - I'm still sitting short USDCHF, USDJPY at the moment and watching carefully - as you say EURUSD is trying to break upwards although not finding it easy going. Lets see if the stops are irresistable.
From the states, and yes - I know pretty good Russian. Having a russian girlfriend who won't speak English to me on Wednesdays and Sundays helps. Every time I try to speak english on those days she purposely stares blankly at me and tells me in Russian that she cannot understand me.
It's good practice. And thanks on the best wishes
It's good practice. And thanks on the best wishes