Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Overnight short got stopped out within 9 pips from the high while I was asleep!!! Then EurUsd went down 45 pips from my stop level. *hit happens!

Looking forward to making good number of pips during the US session. We'll have several announcements and Greenman's speech--These should create decent playable perturbations in the market.

Happy trading,

Chinook
 
To me, the fact that the EUR wasn't able to complete this short-term bounce and completely failed, taking out all support suggests that we're going to see 1.1600 sooner than expected.

First stop is 1.1990 to 1.2000. A decisive break below 1.1975 to 1.1980 and we'll see 1.1600 fast.

1.1200 is also possible, even likely.

This move is clear as day and has been since mid-March and was further confirmed almost perfectly on the 8/18 high.

PH
 
Quote from Pejman Hamidi:

To me, the fact that the EUR wasn't able to complete this short-term bounce and completely failed, taking out all support suggests that we're going to see 1.1600 sooner than expected.

First stop is 1.1990 to 1.2000. A decisive break below 1.1975 to 1.1980 and we'll see 1.1600 fast.

1.1200 is also possible, even likely.

This move is clear as day and has been since mid-March and was further confirmed almost perfectly on the 8/18 high.

PH
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Pejman,

I think it's still early to declare Euro's failure. I think we need to go down to mid to low 1.19 and then if a bounce from there doesn't hold then the real downward trend will begin.

Chinook
 
You could be right although I'm still expecting a bounce from roughly here to 1.22-2250 (sold off to quickly) and the likes of trade-ya and other EUR bulls will not give up that easily (I think their eyes are lighting up at the daily support provided here)- although when they do throw in the towel I also expect a fast drop.

Lets see what transpires. NFP is looming....
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

EUR trades like sh*t. This is the bottom of EUR. I am adding aggressively here. Time to put up or shut up. Good luck to me. :0)
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I'm with you. I'm long and holding to it!

Chinook
 
Even I admit that is highly unlikely. I'd be more at 2% than 5% chance (1:20 doubt it). Right now, I'm just hoping for a move back through unchanged on the day for follow-through next week. I hope i'm wrong and we hit 1.2200. Neal.
 
Quote from chinook:

Pejman,

I think it's still early to declare Euro's failure. I think we need to go down to mid to low 1.19 and then if a bounce from there doesn't hold then the real downward trend will begin.

Chinook
More...

The downtrend began in mid March and was confirmed in early April. This rally since late April's climax low has been a bearish retracement, especially when looked at on the weekly charts. The recent failure at 1.1980 confirmed that the retracement has ended and the next down leg is about to start. Watch 1.1970. A break below 1.1980, followed by a break below 1.1970 will confirm the next down leg has begun.

The UDX has been working on a bottom that is yet to complete, but we've all known that the EUR is going to take the brunt of any dollar rally, so the UDX need not confirm a bottom for the EUR to confirm a top, as is happening now.

I would never take a trade based solely on the technicals. I develop a macro theme/idea and use technicals as a timing tool and a thermometer of supply/demand.

The large money funds have already established big dollar longs and the press is just now reporting that they're short USD and about to defend their positions (yah right). If they're still long EUR and their defense is failing, watch out because there will be a rush for the exits. But in all likelyhood, big money is already out of most of their long dollar positions and the technicals have been clearly signalling this for a few months now. It's been quite obvious since March 9th.

The only level remaining is 1.1970 then we'll be at 1.1600 in no time.

I wish the best of luck to EUR longs though. I'm rooting for you.

Best,

Pejman Hamidi
"The Rookie"
 

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With all due respect, what evidence do you have to say that the big money funds have already established large dollar long positions? I'm very curious as maybe I really need to improve my network of contacts. :)
 
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