Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Well it was deja vu all over again for me. Overnight long got stopped out. US open quick short/long trades generated very nice profits. However, I resisted the short trend which started developing around NYC noon time. I'm not sure why I resisted it since it was very clear in my control panel. Perhaps, I spent all of my mental energy at that point. I gave back all the nice profits and more. Finally I decided to short which was little bit too late and scratched that trade. The late afternoon double bottom invited me to the long side, and I've been long since then. I usually don't hold positions between sessions. So this is an exception. Meanwhile eurusd tested the earlier session lows and slowly creeping up. I see that oil broke its short term downward trendline and is also creeping up.

Chinook
 
I was wondering why coinz wasn't posting in other threads. His status is "banned". His posts were initially entertaining but he went too much overboard by attacking and degrading other people.

Chinook
 
He's a dick. I'm happy that happened. I think that it was because he won the poll of the most hated ET member. LOL! *BUSTS UP LAUGHING AT HIM*!!!!
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

He's a dick. I'm happy that happened. I think that it was because he won the poll of the most hated ET member. LOL! *BUSTS UP LAUGHING AT HIM*!!!!
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He WAS a dick but that's immaterial to the intellectual merit of my post. I'd love to see some thoughts from you guys on the importance of diagnosing RANGE vs. TREND and the concomitant MM systems that would apply to each.
 
Hi JBT. I think that your issue is a valid one range vs. trend, however, one needs to super-impose a time-frame upon the assessment. In other words, one person's range trade is another person's trend. Personally, I see the EUR as strongly trending to the upside however, I am looking at the very big picture (start of the move). In other words, I am looking at the move from .8900 in early 2002 up to 1.2900 a few months ago and subsequent retracement to the current levels. To me, that is one hell of a trend! However, if you're horizon is shorter, like March '04-present, i can certainly see where you might see a 1.1800-1.24 range. Taken to an extreme, the market is always 'range bound' on a short-term basis (we make a range every day). Thus, while I think that your pursuit is valid, I think that first of all, it is difficult to ascertain the 'trendiness' or 'rangeiness' of a market until after the fact and second of all, the answer to that question will of course depend upon your preferred horizon of observation.
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Of course I can say that the market is currently range-bound between .8900 on the downside and 1.2900 on the upside. :-)
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LOL point well taken. In trading ultimately everything is discretionary including the definition of range or trend. But if we do look at the last 7 months of price action we've basically engaged in a 7cent trade (1.18-1.25) driven mainly by the suckiness of both US and EZ eco data. If I were to argue that this WWI 100 yard stale mate were to persist until Oct/Nov then range trading the pair ( ie buying between 1.19-1.2050 and selling between 1.2350-1.25) wil continue to work. After that, the overwhelmingly negative US balance sheet issues should decimate the dollar and we may eventually see 1.40-1.45.

For all those arguing that Europe hasn't come to grips with its eco problems -- true but to a much LESS extent than the US which basically credit carded itself into oblivion in the last 3 years. Contrary to all of the "free marketeers" beliefs on this site the Euro is surrepticioulsy becoming the reserve currency with Russia's implicit consent. Having the biggest guns in the world will no longer be enough if we can't pay for them. But I digress with all this geo-political talk.

Bottom line as I said earler -- long and strong EUR - which now trades more as the anti-dollar rather than as a currency with its own intrinsic worth.
 
It's all about a weak dollar story rather than a strong EUR story. Personally, EUR is currently my currency of choice due to it's volatility (but not overly volatile like Cable) and depth, etc. If anyone doubts the existence of a weak dollar trend, I ask them to pull out a longer term chart of the US $ index or even better the $/CHF. Is there any nicer trade location or more smoothly trending chart than a short $/CHF here? Hard to find a nicer chart. Just my 2 swissies
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

It's all about a weak dollar story rather than a strong EUR story. Personally, EUR is currently my currency of choice due to it's volatility (but not overly volatile like Cable) and depth, etc. If anyone doubts the existence of a weak dollar trend, I ask them to pull out a longer term chart of the US $ index or even better the $/CHF. Is there any nicer trade location or more smoothly trending chart than a short $/CHF here? Hard to find a nicer chart. Just my 2 swissies
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When I look at the longer term Eur/USD chart, I see the trend starting early 2002 and the Euro appreciating strongly against the Dollar. After the high at about june 2003, it makes a low that sets the trend. After this, the Euro spurs again and after a high, retest the trend in may 2004.

After that, it doesn't appreciate strongly against the Dollar, but makes a few small bounces before testing the trend again. The pattern seen in the overall trend (Euro appreciates strongly after testing the trend) is not visible.

Next to that, the rate pierces the trend to only bounce up after fundamental numbers (NFP release). That is not really a technical correction.

Now, the trends is pierced again. You can also see a downtrend developing.

I also believe (as mentioned by someone here?) that US weak fundamentals are already largely calculated into the market. People know that the US has a large (current accounts) deficit and accept it, because the US can bear the risk for now. The market is focussed on economic recovery. Economic (structural) recovery seems more at risk in Europe (where structural changes are necessary; protests in Germany, etc) than in the US (where oil is largely to blame).

But this is only my opinion as noob to the forex market. Don't shoot me if I made an error :)
 
Quote from Agassi:

Very interesting conversation...

Any comments on Victor Niederhoffer?? He always went against the trend. (At least that's what I thought, he always made fun of technical anaysis.). I was his tennis pro and he started laughing at my Japanese Candlesticks book that I was carrying.

He trades on Mathematical Theories (Time Series Analysis??) Any way, I am not a professional. But if any one can add any insight, that would be great.

See ya
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vic is a permanent bull. i played squash on his court in CT in july. he is one heck of a tennis player ! i have seen him crush players half his age and younger.

he holds TA in disdain since it can't be tested in the scientific manner--his mantra is "if it can be tested, it must be tested"



surfer :):)
 
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