Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from TRADERguy:

In general, I've learned to take predictions of experts with a grain of salt. Although the reports you mentioned basically got it right so far. Only it went down quickly and couldn't get through resistance below 1.2900 so now it's going up. btw- if it's anything other than technicals I missed it because I was "busy" watching The lord of the Rings and then Las Vegas. :)

Cheers,

TRADERguy
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it went below 1.2900 already-- i believe it will go up and see maybe even 1.2950 but then come down into the mid-high 1.28s -- only wish i knew when those two points would be :>
 
Now what does everybody think about the Fed meeting. Let's assume that they raise a quarter and leave the statement basically unchanged. Any other scenario should be a no brainer except for the possibility of a whipsaw like last Friday. Any thoughts anyone?

Cheers,

TRADERguy
 
Quote from fandelem:

The reports I've read said that during the asian session they are anticipating the euro to go down.. interesting that it is doing the reverse.. I wonder if it will keep it up.. hmmm..
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Everybody has a different style. I completely ignore the reports in my trading decisions. Big and surprise moves happen when most people expect the opposite.

I believe that one can make great money in FX, trading according to the phases of the moon while using basic money management principles with 100% discipline.
 
Just watching markets a little to see if there is anything dominantly stepping ahead of the rest of the signals. It seems like continued range trading.

International trade numbers tomorrow will probably be a little mover - esp. with regards to pre-empting FOMC statement later in the day wednesday. Double deficits is the main reason for this - along with projected USD 50 bn deficit increases a year for the next 10 years - or what timeframe the pundits called it on Bloomberg.

Long term long buyers seem to have been the aggregators of the € rise, with short-term speculators mostly being bearish on € all the time since the range breakout. I guess habitual trading in a range for so long is tough to kick; seems like a losing habit to me still. Otherwise, it seems corporates are also mostly watching the plays unfold.

Some stop-running below 1.2900 also does not get too much attention of traders, while the big option-related prizes around 1.3000 and above still loom in the back of our minds.

edit: adjusting size (-10%) of demo spot trade resulted in the software (Trading Station) liquidating the whole position. LOL. Well, just entered in a new long at the right size then ... these guys are full of tricks. When pushing entry button - they always , always (!) set your target to something like 10 pips worse than best bid/ask - just to see if anyone is butter-fingered enough to send it away ? It doesn't exactly add to any confidence in using any of these forex dealers for doing my FX business.
:D
 
On Bloomberg TV now - James McCormick, Lehman Brothers London says we'll see 1.35 next year. He was voted best FX analyst by 50 fx firms.
He says ECB won't intervene or cut rates anytime soon. US rates are competetive, but haven't proved anything much - external US investment needs is big problem.
USD will have to move more down towards asian currencies (well, that's the US admins wet dreams anyways .. hehe).

Overall he seemed a USD bear - although he didn't provide much meat to the news.
 
Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Let's see what kind of tricks we'll see :)

I can't believe what you wrote about the trading platform! They might as well transfer money from their customers account directly every day! Which company is this? I hope we see more competition in the FX futures business so CME lowers it's commissions.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Some stop-running below 1.2900 also does not get too much attention of traders, while the big option-related prizes around 1.3000 and above still loom in the back of our minds.
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what kind of option contracts are there past 1.3000 you know of?

i have found that while i can keep up on news and run my predictions that way, the "options news" portion screws me everytime .. wish i could get a handle on that.
 
Quote from chinook:

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Let's see what kind of tricks we'll see :)

I can't believe what you wrote about the trading platform! They might as well transfer money from their customers account directly every day! Which company is this? I hope we see more competition in the FX futures business so CME lowers it's commissions.
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Trading Station is what FXCM and RefcoFX uses - made by CandleWorks.

It seems that our hopes are the Philadelphia Stock Exchange XL platform - I saw another thread where there was a recent announcement. Otherwise I mentioned it in another thread about Reuters and CME in FX Brokers. I think the post today showed it would be around $0.50 per contract ... quite a difference.
 
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