Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Yes, disappointing that they managed to cut it down to under 1.23 as well. I was inclined to believe 1.2355 would hold also.
Well, anyway - I feel comfortable buying some small dips for small targets. My ISP has been quite unstable over the weekend and this morning. A few seconds after I entered a trade around the 1.2270-area I lost my connection. Luckily I already had a target set for the 1.2280-area, and was quite strongly convinced that we would at least bounce back up there because of the running stops that seemed to meet support around the 70-area.
Now, for the day as a whole I don't know; it seems most of the move has been done while US markets were closed, as you pointed out. So any very big moves is not something I would be looking for during the US session. Some tighter range-trading is more of a possibility - also because I think we will pop through the 1.2280-level quite a few times.
Maybe I should be satisfied with +22 ticks/pips on 2 trades after all the problems my ISP has; when it rains in Brazil the world stops - although it's just a quick shower - not pouring down or anything. Weak infrastructure hanging from posts in the street and not weather-resistant (and more costly) buried cables is the norm here.
Seeing as the EuroFX now trades under 1.2260 it might be just as well to count one's blessings.
We're back in the old rut again now if there isn't some great news ahead. I guess all of this comes as a prelude to the infamous NFP on friday - it's expected to the best in 3 months. We will see. At least all categories of traders can feel the frustration of the range-mentality on their shoulders. At least the 1.2235-area should be a final supportive level for today, so no worries there.
The good thing is that we probably have a bigger range towards friday, but possibly a flatter thursday ? Just guessing anyway, I'll stick to scalping now as trying to catch the very big fish is also a lot of guesswork right now.
Well, anyway - I feel comfortable buying some small dips for small targets. My ISP has been quite unstable over the weekend and this morning. A few seconds after I entered a trade around the 1.2270-area I lost my connection. Luckily I already had a target set for the 1.2280-area, and was quite strongly convinced that we would at least bounce back up there because of the running stops that seemed to meet support around the 70-area.
Now, for the day as a whole I don't know; it seems most of the move has been done while US markets were closed, as you pointed out. So any very big moves is not something I would be looking for during the US session. Some tighter range-trading is more of a possibility - also because I think we will pop through the 1.2280-level quite a few times.
Maybe I should be satisfied with +22 ticks/pips on 2 trades after all the problems my ISP has; when it rains in Brazil the world stops - although it's just a quick shower - not pouring down or anything. Weak infrastructure hanging from posts in the street and not weather-resistant (and more costly) buried cables is the norm here.
Seeing as the EuroFX now trades under 1.2260 it might be just as well to count one's blessings.
We're back in the old rut again now if there isn't some great news ahead. I guess all of this comes as a prelude to the infamous NFP on friday - it's expected to the best in 3 months. We will see. At least all categories of traders can feel the frustration of the range-mentality on their shoulders. At least the 1.2235-area should be a final supportive level for today, so no worries there.
The good thing is that we probably have a bigger range towards friday, but possibly a flatter thursday ? Just guessing anyway, I'll stick to scalping now as trying to catch the very big fish is also a lot of guesswork right now.
Deutsche Banks's Euro sentiment survey today:
Sentiment Survey of European Importers and Exporters
The euroâs latest rejection from the mid-$1.24s has
drawn a collective sigh of âI knew itââ from market
participants. The sideways range of the last few
months appears unbreakable. At least the belief that it
will be maintained is so strong that the behaviour of
medium-term traders is sustaining it â a sort of selffulfilling
prophecy. This weekâs survey reveals that this
group sold euros on balance over the course of the
last five sessions. They may even have been the
principal sellers near last weekâs peak. As a result,
our Bull/Bear-Index® has slipped fractionally below the
level that prevailed a fortnight ago.
The abrupt revision of medium-term opinion is
noteworthy. Just last week this group expressed rising
optimism on prices near $1.2250. In the meantime
there have been no discernible changes in the
fundamentals: the economic data was mixed; the G7
meeting was expected to be (and was) essentially
neutral for exchange rates; and the modestly rising oil
price is widely considered to be dollar-negative. The
only thing that did change over the course of the
week was the euroâs spot price. And this
information alone was sufficient to justify mediumterm
sales.
Long liquidation by medium-term players means
that this group is in a position to rebuy on dips. Of
course, there is no doubt that some demand will
emerge at the lower border of the range, i.e. near
$1.20. But given the narrow range from which
medium-term traders are currently trying to extract
value, one should not be surprised to see their bids
appearing in the middle of the range. As for the
upside, a return to the upper border will attract more
selling interest than ever unless it happens so
quickly that nobody has the chance to react. Panic
moves are therefore subject to very strict preconditions.
<pre>
EUR USD: 1.2360 (+0.8%)
Survey responses: 167
Bullish Bearish Unchanged Total
Exporters 35% 39% 26% 51%
Importers 57% 11% 32% 49%
Total 46% 25% 29% 100%
Variation -4% +2% +2%
</pre>
Sentiment Survey of European Importers and Exporters
The euroâs latest rejection from the mid-$1.24s has
drawn a collective sigh of âI knew itââ from market
participants. The sideways range of the last few
months appears unbreakable. At least the belief that it
will be maintained is so strong that the behaviour of
medium-term traders is sustaining it â a sort of selffulfilling
prophecy. This weekâs survey reveals that this
group sold euros on balance over the course of the
last five sessions. They may even have been the
principal sellers near last weekâs peak. As a result,
our Bull/Bear-Index® has slipped fractionally below the
level that prevailed a fortnight ago.
The abrupt revision of medium-term opinion is
noteworthy. Just last week this group expressed rising
optimism on prices near $1.2250. In the meantime
there have been no discernible changes in the
fundamentals: the economic data was mixed; the G7
meeting was expected to be (and was) essentially
neutral for exchange rates; and the modestly rising oil
price is widely considered to be dollar-negative. The
only thing that did change over the course of the
week was the euroâs spot price. And this
information alone was sufficient to justify mediumterm
sales.
Long liquidation by medium-term players means
that this group is in a position to rebuy on dips. Of
course, there is no doubt that some demand will
emerge at the lower border of the range, i.e. near
$1.20. But given the narrow range from which
medium-term traders are currently trying to extract
value, one should not be surprised to see their bids
appearing in the middle of the range. As for the
upside, a return to the upper border will attract more
selling interest than ever unless it happens so
quickly that nobody has the chance to react. Panic
moves are therefore subject to very strict preconditions.
<pre>
EUR USD: 1.2360 (+0.8%)
Survey responses: 167
Bullish Bearish Unchanged Total
Exporters 35% 39% 26% 51%
Importers 57% 11% 32% 49%
Total 46% 25% 29% 100%
Variation -4% +2% +2%
</pre>
Yes, although I'm not very thrilled about how they deliver quotes (sometimes splitting trades, and many times delivering quotes in non-chronological order - i.e changes in bid/ask before the engulfing trade is posted). I understand why, though - updating information you need to trade is first and foremost - but it still could be delivered optimized though ... X-Trader via velocity does so e.g.
Otherwise I like the very good performance on numbers-release etc.
I also use quote.com and others for backfill and historical data - even for EuroFX.
Still having the fastest quotes out there gives a little edge I think - although I'm a long way from their servers and get bad ping times.
Truly a yawning US session for the EuroFX today. I might say the same about the asian sessions lately - although last night was a fair amount of slide. European sessions look a little more spicy .. but ... getting up freakin' early is not my definition of 'fun' anymore (I used to trade european equities first when living in Brazil).
Well, friday's NFP will at least get some voltage going in those junked up veins of traders.
Well, friday's NFP will at least get some voltage going in those junked up veins of traders.