China Economy

[drsteph]

Quote from Thermactor:

i think you're being hyper sensitive about perceived anti-semitism

I gotta step in here -

That 'cross of gold' speech was about the deflationary effects of gold monetarism and what it did to farmers who had borrowed money and were faced with declining agricultural prices and fixed dollar value loans.

I don't think it had anything to do with zionism or anti-semitism, but back then sometimes anything went, so if it did, I am ignorant.

Those who avocate for a gold standard should do so and think about what it means to have permanent deflation - it will essentially ensconce those who have wealth permanently and prohibit those who do not from attaining it (without rare, lucky exceptions).

 

[trefoil]

Bryan was a scummy little bastard, of the variety of politician who uses code to get his message across. The people of the time knew to what he was referring in those last couple of lines of his speech. To wit:

The currency issue itself was loaded with anti-Semitism as the Populist returned again and again to crucifixion metaphors to argue against the gold standard. The reference was clear. The same Jews who were responsible for the death of Jesus were responsible for the currency crisis.

So, it isn't as if Bryan didn't know what he was doing when he put those closing lines in his speech.

From <a href="http://projects.vassar.edu/1896/antisemitism.html">Vassar's 1896 Project.</a>

And as of today, you can find a Bryan apologia on a "revisionist" (as in Holocaust denier) history site: <a href="http://revisionistreview.blogspot.com/2006/02/appearance-of-information-wall-street.html">The Appearance of Information: The Wall Street Journal and William Jennings Bryan</a>.
I hope I don't have to argue that a Holocaust denier is, prima facie, an anti-Semite. That would be too much.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from trefoil:

Per capita is obviously not the same as the gross sum. Obviously.
And, all your article asserts is another obvious thing: PPP is an approximation. As is exchange rate parity, of course. However, if you have a currency that has been deliberately manipulated to an absurdly low level, as is the case with the remnimbi/yuan, then using PPP is going to be a much closer approximation of reality than using exchange rate parity. .

PPP comparisons are meaningless for these 'king-of-the-hill' type debates.

Y? Because the deciding factor is military power.

US military technology is at least 3 generations ahead of PRC.

For China to play keep up, advanced military hardware must be imported --- priced in USD or EURO.

So the parity conversion goes right out the window since all definitions of parity are comparisons relative to cheap production at HOME.

When the YUAN goes abroad to buy goods, fogetaboutit.


Second. Exchange rate parity is the most accurate GDP measure (for China).

Granted, its rigged by an easy 30%.

But what makes anyone think the world economy would continue tickety-poo if China let the Yuan float?

The net effect would be akin to China dumping US Treasuries and the US dollar (and economy) would tank.

Empty wallets for Chinas' most loyal customer is bad news for the Reds.

Whats keeping this money pump boom afloat is cheap Chinese goods. Once thats gone, this 'recovery' is done. Thats basic economics right there.

 

[arealpissedgoy]

Avid readers of Barrons and WSJ always stick out like a sore thumb. Keep on underestimating the Chinese.

 

[achilles28]

China remains far too dependent on the wallets of foreigners to sustain their economy.

US consumers could easily survive a global downturn.

China could not. And will not.

They're running a mercantile system that banks ~1/2 of its GDP on exports to wealthy nations.

Their fate is inextricably tied to ours.

 

[dhpar]

Quote from achilles28:

Y? Because the deciding factor is military power.

US military technology is at least 3 generations ahead of PRC.

bit off topic but need to correct this misconception.

Military power is defined more in terms of inverse of the worth of individual life than the military technology. What I mean is that all military technology is not that useful when the value of US life is 100x the value of life of e.g. Iraqi.
Defined this way you can see that US is in fact quite weak militarily - check out Iraq/Vietnam for instance. How do you think China compares?

What do you think US does when China takes Taiwan for instance? US will shit through their pants and try to save the face with statements like "Taiwan is China's internal issue" etc.

 

[achilles28]

You're way out in left field on that one.

By that logic, the Taliban and Saddams' Iraq should have decimated the US.

Both regimes held very little regard for human life relative to their adversary and look what happened.

Smart bombed back to the stone age by 'humanists'.

 

[stock_trad3r]

has the bubble burst? When will the so called china bubble burst?

 

[dhpar]

Quote from achilles28:

By that logic, the Taliban and Saddams' Iraq should have decimated the US.

well you may be surprised but that's exactly what they did. do you think they mind their losses? NOT. Do you think they enjoy US losses? GUESS!

so who is the winner...

Quote from achilles28:

Both regimes held very little regard for human life relative to their adversary and look what happened.

That is exactly the point.

 

[Tracy McGreedy]

Nope. It's global and the US and China are inextricably tied to one another. 40% of S&P500 earnings derived from Asia. US depends on Chinese labor. The chinese need the US for exports. However, some interesting trends. Chinese middle class rising. US middle class getting destroyed.

China then cuts export spigots, to feed domestic consumption of fab goods.

The US is in a bind here.. reconstruction time again. build the new peon working class tho via foreclosures and bankrupcy and illegal immigration to manufacture their own cheap goods.

Quote from achilles28:

China remains far too dependent on the wallets of foreigners to sustain their economy.

US consumers could easily survive a global downturn.

China could not. And will not.

They're running a mercantile system that banks ~1/2 of its GDP on exports to wealthy nations.

Their fate is inextricably tied to ours.