channels

Are you really that stupid? Sure, sometimes you can draw a channel. What do you do when you can't? Which condition is more valid? (Hint: the only thing that matters is "up" and "down.")
 
Quote from dv4632:

I never had consistent success doing stuff like that intraday. But channels did work better than anything else I tried.

When I think about it now, the big money that moves the market likely does not know or care about channels or ma's on 5-min charts. So maybe I was trying to be too precise about them, I don't know. Also might not have been taking enough higher timeframe context into account.

I think they are useful on higher timeframes though. I still look at the intraday channels in hindsight, you never know, someday I might come up with a way to use them.

But here's Friday in NQ to illustrate one conundrum I used to have. Obviously we are moving up as of market open, but I drew two possible channels a trader could have used. And there's a third possibility, you could have copied the upper parallel of the red line up to the 15:00 high from Thursday. If someone was trying to base intraday trades off these channels they could have very different results over time just based around how they drew their channels.

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LOL....
 
Quote from traitor786:

It really was a ruff draft so I didn't think it was worth putting up the pictures and it would get cluttered.

DV4632,

The large Trend lines may tend to hold more. You may even find that none of them fail. There is a reason for this. Chop of half the second half of the chart and work with the first to draw the lines and then extend them...

Statistically you need to make sure your actions are fare.

You mention using long term and short time time frames independently. If both exist then the long term will at some interfere with the short term and if you are only looking at the short term you will be in shock

Why is the anomaly you may see so drastic?

Long term trend lines have big money when a channel is hit the volume is huge and price move may be huge.

If you are only looking at the microscope of small player in the 5 min only the big boys that are looking at the hourly will come in and knock the socks off you.

People like to enter the market when a trend line is hit, the larger the trend line, the more volume you will see. this means that also small trend lines may show volume when a line is hit.

we have channels and volume.
one can also use indicators.

Entry and exit must have exact rules in order to compute.

You have no rules to draw trend lines. So there will be no consistency to compute. In this case, indicators will be better as exact rules are always needed.

Conversely, you can make rules for your trend lines. Trend lines MAY tend to catch moves better then indicators.

While experimenting it is fine to mess about.
A simple rule can be to only look at the 5 min chart and no matter what use the highest point in the first hour as a place to make your first trend line.

As you can imagine it will be not as profitable as other ways ( i would not suggest it ) but it is a valid system. cause it has an exact rule. from there you play it and see how often it yields a certain % of money.

Maybe instead add a moving average and find a pivot closest to a moving average cross over. Or if you find a volume plays a part through a trend line you can use that.

Nothing that is precise is wrong though it may be not profitable.
Nothing that is not precise is right and that will always at some point catch up to you .


My channels have numbers on them this is some thing that can be used in conjunction with other things to pin point where my channel ends and a new one starts.

The only way to build rules is to go through each day and observe.

I once printed out hundreds of line charts, they had 3 days of data superimposed one on the other. I went through them and saw that there was a coralation between yesterday and today that seemed to be consistent. but the mind is bad at keep track. It always over estimates the things is recognises. If you think of the number 37 long enough you will see in every where you look.

make rules, then you can back test and know that your future trades will be of the same type.
Consistency out weighs strategy in my view. with consistency, we are given math, once you have math,, well then the future is in your hands.

I know its not fun, So lets make it fun

http://chartgame.com

No need to email or anything, just open it and start playing around. unfortunately there is no channels , but in your case this will be a good thing.

Forget about the channel totally, pull up the Bollinger band on the right pane and buy and hold. keep going and going and going.

It will not take long before you notice that 2 bars hitting (vs touching) a line may mean some thing and when that does happen it stops in its tracks some where.

From there, it gets a bit tricky. But options show up. you can either calculate how often option 1 shows up vs option 2 and play the odds or you can find out why option one occures and why option 2 occures.

If you learn why you take the trade in the correct direction each time. if not, you take the trade and are right X% of the time and are right X% of the time.

I do not think it is possible to win the game. but i do know that when a thought comes to mind numbers drop and then they start to gu up again. Do not play with time frame )unless you do so in each chart )

Now you are moving forward as entry rules are being made.

Again it is just a game and very few tools are given, it is not about wining but rather learning that the market consistently does things.
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chartgame is fucked up.
 
Quote from Duref Mudgins:

Are you really that stupid?

read: Restak, Llimas, Doidge, DANA Guide, Kervan, Schoek ans Shah.

then read: "The Way Things Work", then Tufte, theen Buckingham and Coffman,

Then naroow down to Edwards &Magee, then Harris, then Achelis and finally Scott Adams.

LOL...

Sure, sometimes you can draw a channel.

Consider the above comment; change the word "you" to "I"

What do you do when you can't?

LOL

Which condition is more valid? (Hint: the only thing that matters is "up" and "down.")

Obviously. this is why trendlines are called RTL and LTL.

Look how close this airhead cam to looking at one bar.

Look how close he came to looking at two bars.

Scott Adams nailed him on page one.

If he has 17 steps to do he starts with step 17 and changes it.
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LOL..... up down!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!
 
The boundaries of price movement and volume movement are projected into the future so the trader "KNOWS HE KNOWS" where the contained future moves into the Present.

The Present is where all markets operate.

so check out the amout of time that both of these propositions are true. If you are able, then continue to think as you absorb the words below to bbe able to OWN them and not fuck around with ANYTHING ELSE.

The container of price and volume each have boundaries. They ALWAYS have boundaries.

Why? Tarding space is divided into two regions. Where the variables ARE and where the variables ARE NOT.

The boundaries are on the sides of the space the variables occupy.

To make money a person DOES NOT have to DEAL with where the variables ARE NOT.

so check out the amout of time that both of these propositions are true. If you are able, then continue to think as you absorb the words below to bbe able to OWN them and not fuck around with ANYTHING ELSE.

If you can recognize that you NEED to have all of this in your long term memory, then you can continue to learn what else you need in your long term memory. So far you have posted everything ASS backwards. Why? Because you cannot think or grow. It may NOT be stupidity.
 
NOW, I am going to take you through some reasoning.


Draw and post one bar.

Note when, in events, the ends of the bar occurred. The former event is 1; the latter event is 2.

The above is always true.

draw one bar, over and over on separate sheets of paper, until you can remember how to order the ends of one bar as events in an order that are munbered correctly. This may take few weeks.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

NOW, I am going to take you through some reasoning.


Draw and post one bar.

Note when, in events, the ends of the bar occurred. The former event is 1; the latter event is 2.

The above is always true.

draw one bar, over and over on separate sheets of paper, until you can remember how to order the ends of one bar as events in an order that are munbered correctly. This may take few weeks.
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This is a philosophical post.

we discovered by reading truths, that space is divided into parts. The middle part is useful.

Sides of space are being considered.

A person made a mistake suggesting "up and down"; that is his problem. If he uses this concept for price, he is fucked.

we have to look at the purpose of trading and findout how ALWAYS something allows that to be possible.

The answer is price movement.

favorable price movement is what makes money.

Unfavorable price movement is what loses money for a person in the wrong place in the PRESENT.

Only the Present matters for making money.

So if you can put these facts in your mind permanently, then you can go further in growing your mind.

If you can't, then what you invent as an alternative will fuck up your mind.

Price space has two sides.

Reason which side ends making money because you are no longer in a space between the two "outside" spaces where price is not any longer CONTAINED".

One side is the correct answer the other side is incorrect ALL of the moments of the Present.

Notice the future keeps coming into the Present moment after moment.

The correct answer ALWAYS is the right side. Sometimes the Right side is the up side and somethimes it is the down side.

Because of this "UNCERTAINTY" up or down cannot be used. Only the RIGHT side is ALWAYS the correct side.

If aperson canot reason through this it does not mean he is stupid. It just means his mind is fucked up. A lot of smart people have fucked up minds.

Work on figuring out if your mind is fucked up. If it is, then you have caused this to happen as a consequence.

If you have an intimate relationship, ask if you can do something new with your partner.. If you get a yes, try "unfucking" for a while. Unfucking can't be done.

So pay attention to mindfucking yourself. It does not help to put on a mind condom. Mindfucking is not a disease. Mindfucking is unnecessry and it is not even fun to do. Reread Schoeck.


philosophically, in trading it is a good idea to associate continuing to make money with staying in between the boundaries of where the variables are operating.
 
Quote from frenchfry:

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so you need to consider several things.

this is an example of mindfucking yourself.

A bar has an orientation to price.

Thus it has price ends.

You can screw around with the open and the close, but you will not be learning anything.

so throw the sheet of paper away and remind yourself about leanring to make money.

How does making money work?

Study a bar on a sheet of paper. You enter on one end and exit on the other end. YOU ALWAYS MAKE MONEY.

If you always enter on the open and exit on the close, you are taking risks. there does not have to be risk taking in making money.

1 is assigned to the former end and 2 is assigned to the latter end.

We may become interested in monitoring and ananlyzing trends. Thses words are gerunds. Gerunds are going to come up again soon.

Thanks for posting. Post a few more bars with 1's and 2's. Lets see if we can prove that bars have ends in terms of making money with price change.

Then we can look at TWO BARS.
 
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