Challenge to Dan Zanger's results

[fxpeculator]

Quote from VictorS:

I had never heard of Dan Zanger until this thread. According to this article www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/04/082504.asp he has continued to do well.

2003 +150%
2004 over +100%

Oh, by the way, he says he's still highly leveraged and prefers bull and range markets.

Why get offended by another person's financial success? You see it in every industry.

Your forgot 2000-2002, what happened to those years? This is when Zanger got smashed. If someone received some GOOG stock at the IPO and just held at 2X leverage, would they be a great trader/investor based on these returns? This return would have beaten 99% of fund managers within the pst-IPO time window while most likely 99% of fund managers would have more talent than the GOOG holder.

He himself states his trading approach only works well in a bull market. Zanger deserves credit for "good" work but he is not a Soros, Marcus, Tudor Jones, Kovner, Simons, Livermore, Rogers, Dennis, Henry, etc.

 

[jorgeamado88]

Quote from fxpeculator:

Your forgot 2000-2002, what happened to those years? This is when Zanger got smashed. If someone received some GOOG stock at the IPO and just held at 2X leverage, would they be a great trader/investor based on these returns? This return would have beaten 99% of fund managers within the pst-IPO time window while most likely 99% of fund managers would have more talent than the GOOG holder.

He himself states his trading approach only works well in a bull market. Zanger deserves credit for "good" work but he is not a Soros, Marcus, Tudor Jones, Kovner, Simons, Livermore, Rogers, Dennis, Henry, etc.

I disagree with your implication that a great trader shall be profitable in all markets. Although "great trader" is not a precise and objective quantifiable term, I think my personal view of what a great trader is is different from yours. Of course, that doesn't make me more correct than you.

If a trader is able to profit handsomely in a bullmarket and being able to stay out of trading ranges/bear markets, I would say that's a great trader.

I get the feeling that you think one should be able to make just as much money in a bear market as in a bull market, but in equities market conditions are much more important than say in forex or doing orderbook scalping to bring up two examples.

As for your GOOG example, I don't think it's a good one. I guess what you mean is that someone who got GOOG in the IPO and is still holding on has just been lucky. But that's just one stock. If you repeatedly manage to catch big moves in stocks like GOOG (he mentioned TZOO and RIMM in one of the interview pdfs), and on average are profitable - then you're not just dumb money but have crossed over to be a profitable trader. As for Zanger, he seems to have a high enough frequency of trades to make it not just being lucky.

But, Zanger is definitely interesting - I would like to thank you for starting the thread and making me aware of him. The strongest point to critisize on his webpage is the deeply flawed historical performance, which only includes top picks and not all trades and their outcomes. Also, as far as I can see you will have to enter and exit trades on your own - so I guess it's more a service of making people aware of potential movers than a detailed trade advisory service.

And like you say, he's had some really serious drawdawns - which means he's still got issues to work on, and which means his trading style is (too!) risky. I read in one of the pdf's on his site about the day he was heavily margined into fiber stocks when Nortel Networks came with an after-the-bell profit warning. The next day, I think it was 32% his portfolio got hit. Market exposure like that just shouldn't happen.

 

[fxpeculator]

Quote from jorgeamado88:

I disagree with your implication that a great trader shall be profitable in all markets. Although "great trader" is not a precise and objective quantifiable term, I think my personal view of what a great trader is is different from yours. Of course, that doesn't make me more correct than you.

If a trader is able to profit handsomely in a bullmarket and being able to stay out of trading ranges/bear markets, I would say that's a great trader.

I get the feeling that you think one should be able to make just as much money in a bear market as in a bull market, but in equities market conditions are much more important than say in forex or doing orderbook scalping to bring up two examples.

As for your GOOG example, I don't think it's a good one. I guess what you mean is that someone who got GOOG in the IPO and is still holding on has just been lucky. But that's just one stock. If you repeatedly manage to catch big moves in stocks like GOOG (he mentioned TZOO and RIMM in one of the interview pdfs), and on average are profitable - then you're not just dumb money but have crossed over to be a profitable trader. As for Zanger, he seems to have a high enough frequency of trades to make it not just being lucky.

But, Zanger is definitely interesting - I would like to thank you for starting the thread and making me aware of him. The strongest point to critisize on his webpage is the deeply flawed historical performance, which only includes top picks and not all trades and their outcomes. Also, as far as I can see you will have to enter and exit trades on your own - so I guess it's more a service of making people aware of potential movers than a detailed trade advisory service.

And like you say, he's had some really serious drawdawns - which means he's still got issues to work on, and which means his trading style is (too!) risky. I read in one of the pdf's on his site about the day he was heavily margined into fiber stocks when Nortel Networks came with an after-the-bell profit warning. The next day, I think it was 32% his portfolio got hit. Market exposure like that just shouldn't happen.

Great reply! Points Taken

 

[Samson77]

You have to respect the guy for his hard work and tenacity and also for his ability to hold on to the money.

The thing that bothers me is WHY the flashy high hype web site now?

It's just not necessary in my opinion.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from spect8or:

Abso-freakin-lutely.


People call what Zanger did "luck", and he himself admits he in the right place at the right time, but so what? A million other traders were in the same place at the same time but couldn't hold a candle to him.

Imo, it wasn't "just luck". I think it takes great "skill" (or the right mindset) to realize when conditions are extremely favorable to your trading approach, and then just put the pedal to the metal and try and cash in, 'cos, hey, this might be a once in a lifetime opportunity.



I wouldn't dream of comparing myself to Zanger, but in the only year I made any money trading, '02, I was an extreme bear in a bear market. But I didn't push hard enough. I was trying to be "consistent". Consequently, I didn't make anywhere near as much as I coulda-shoulda-woulda.

=======
Even though it maybe a bit late,Zangeralso had a neat homebuilder leader chart pattern on ESIGNAL website;
yes i prefer nicely stairstepping volume and there are opportunities when it doesnt.

Also Mark Weinstein won that option trading contest -100k into 900k/3 months, with a conservative money manage flair;
did NOT pyramid profits.

 

[virgin]

Htrader,



If you are any good than with compounding 50 % a year, you also get
your 30000 % in 15 years, that's why
consistency is so important.

My edge is already working 9 years
in bull, bear and range markets consistently ( standard deviation less than 20 %)

Trading for me is a challenge, a challenge to beat the market, now that
I have to achieved that, I just want to
improve my sharp ratio year after year.

That finally it's all about the bucks comes probably from an American.


Don't get me wrong, I have the fullest
respect for Dan Zanger but I wouldn't
call him consistent same goes for
Larry Williams

 

[MogulB]

Does anyone kow who the firm was that audited his results?

"So far I've had the first twelve months of this incredible record audited by a firm that specializes in auditing professional money managers".

Quote from fxpeculator:

Alpha (Coefficient) Definition: The calculation of a (alpha in Greek) in the formula for the slope of a line: a + bx = y. If b (beta in Greek) is set at zero, thereby eliminating market price volatility, alpha will measure the investment return for a particular security when compared to the baseline of the S&P Index. Alpha measurements that are positive (e.g., plus 10) mean that the particular stock will yield dividend returns 10 percent greater than the average of the S&P. An alpha of zero is equal to the S&P dividend return; and alpha of minus 5 is 5 percent lower that the S&P. Thus, alpha measures investment return and beta measures price volatility of individual stocks versus a commonly accepted baseline.
(Source: The Complete Words of Wall Street)




http://www.chartpattern.com/about_dan.html


Hello stock fans my name is Daniel J. Zanger and I'm a technical stock analyst and I focus on the most explosive stocks in the stock market today. I do an evening newsletter four times a week for active traders and proactive investors focusing on these stocks for long positions and when appropriate, for shorting.

I'm also the world record holder for the largest percent change for a personal portfolio for a 12 month period of time and an 18 month period of time in the history of the stock market. So far I've had the first twelve months of this incredible record audited by a firm that specializes in auditing professional money managers. For one year the record is 29,233% using margin on high flying Internet stocks during the market bubble from 1998 through 2000. Read the audit "Effron" using the link at the bottom of this page.

I have been featured in FORTUNE MAGAZINE (see link above) and appeared on a segment of EXTRA TV. I was also the weekly host of my own half-hour show on the Business Channel in LA. and I currently have a one hour radio show on KFNN.com on Friday evening at 6 pm EST called Money Matters. I've also been featured in numerous leading trade magazines such as those on the scroll at the top of the home page of this web site.

Over the last fifteen years, I've spent over 10,000 hours studying every type of chart pattern formation imaginable. From Cup and Handle patterns to Falling Wedges, Ascending Triangles, Bull and Bear Flags and too many others to list here now. And lucky for us these patterns repeat over and over and over again!

I combine these patterns with stocks that have unusually higher rates of growth and low number of shares that float. For the average stock I list, growth rates must be up at least 40% for both earnings and revenues growth for their most recent quarters and most stocks that I list have growth rates up 80, 90, 100 and sometimes up 200% and more. It's these high growth rates combined with stocks that have low number of shares that float that make them so explosive.

By registering today, you'll get three weeks of my newsletter "The Zanger Report" (See Sample Report) free. My letter comes out Sunday through Wednesday evening and it's packed with numerous stocks charts and their patterns. I'll give you the ins-and-outs of the Stock Market, what stocks to keep your eye on with their buy and sell points as a result of their chart patterns or trend lines.

 

[psytrade]

arthur anderson?

 

[NTB]

Who is this Firm "Effron" that audited his results? Why wouldn't he go with a reputable firm and audit all of his results not just the first 12 months? I'm just curious about this.

 

[virgin]

How can he know he has the world record ?

Where all trading records from all people in the whole history audited ?

The odds are good he has the world record but we can not be 100 % sure.