Catching Tails

What's up, Elite cash register ringerz.

Lots of paper trading this week, testing the third wave on top gainers.

Five wins, one break even, and one loss.

While playing with indicators, it became obvious that a bollinger band breakout on the 15 minute chart is an ideal buy signal, and the last lower bollinger band price poke is a perfect place to put the stop (several cents under).

My biggest issue is the need to let winners run. The big winner was BIOF, where I took 1/4 the profit that was possible.

:eek:

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Elite capital allocators, I hope you all had a huge week of consistent profits.

As for me, it was another week of testing on sim, the ABC12 top gainer third wave breakout setup. Overall it's proving to be satisfactory. I haven't kept exact stats but win rate is roughly 60% and the p/l is dominated by outlier wins. Opening 3-5 positions a day, 500 shares each, the account is up ~$1300 in 7 trading days.

In a typical day, out of 5 opened positions, 2-3 will fizzle out and be small losses, 1-2 will be small "melt up" wins and 1-2 will be tails - outlier wins (:D ).

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Good evening, trading spectators.

This week the ABC12 setup got smacked, bigtime in my sim account. Nary a single outlier win was to be had, after strings of small losses (8-10 in a row). I believe I had about 2 wins and 20 losses, roughly.

All profits were given back and in an orgy of reckless abandon, basically letting my every impulse run wild on a 5 minute chart, I gave back an additional $1300 today. It is amazing how wrong my natural tendencies are.

The conclusions are obvious:

1. I'm basically no better than a Muppet, psychologically.

2. ABC12 on a 15 minute chart is no guarantee.

3. I looked thru all my losses and they were mostly caused by the passing of 5th waves on the hourly chart. This explains why the setup worked so well last week (when my list of top gainers were all still in third and fifth waves on the hourly charts). In addition, 3 losses were caused by having my stop above the C wave, and would have been healthy wins if my stop was not so tight.

4. Sim trading is a great way to save your account if you want to experiment on new ideas.

5. ABC12 on a 15 minute chart does not work if the hourly chart shows a full 5 wave advance, come and gone, with negative momentum divergence :eek:

6. The Market, selling off in a healthy correction, may have influenced the lack of follow thru on all the individual stocks

7. After consulting one of my subscription services, a combination of indicators was discovered that may help filter out these erroneous trades in the future.

:)
 
Quote from HurricaneUS:

unsubscribed :D

I guess marketsurfer was right.....TA doesn't work.
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Thanks for sharing your insights, tales of woe, and extraordinary events witnessed during the course of your own journey to trading professionalism. It is members like you that make ET such a vast resource of helpful wisdom for apprentice traders such as myself.
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

Thanks for sharing your insights, tales of woe, and extraordinary events witnessed during the course of your own journey to trading professionalism. It is members like you that make ET such a vast resource of helpful wisdom for apprentice traders such as myself.
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+1
 
Quote from cdcaveman:

+1
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Let's see....

Wide Tailz has just admitted that he can't trade worth shit

...and cdcaveman is a small account piker, probably on welfare, bombing money from friends, bankrupt, and thinks he's an option expert but is instead a general loser at life.....did I miss anything
 
Quote from HurricaneUS:

Let's see....

Wide Tailz has just admitted that he can't trade worth shit

More...

No better than a Muppet, psychologically. My natural instincts are opposite what would make money if I let my impulses act unrestrained. This is not to be construed as inability to generate a trading system with positive expectancy, and execute it. I have automated systems, probably not as secretive or sophisticated as yours, but they make money. Discretionary trading is a sport that I'd like to master. This thread encompasses the development process to that end.


...and cdcaveman is a small account piker, probably on welfare, bombing money from friends, bankrupt, and thinks he's an option expert but is instead a general loser at life.....did I miss anything
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I seem to have missed where you became filled with hate for those around you...... unless you only subbed this thread to see me fail.
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:



6. The Market, selling off in a healthy correction, may have influenced the lack of follow thru on all the individual stocks

:)
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How very interesting that the ABC12 (long) setup began to fail exactly when that blue moving average turned over...... to the day

:eek:

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Market mood briefly turned around this morning and ABC12 tactics (long) caught 3 small tails and had one stop out. I also had a spike fade active over the weekend on APPY (short).

Overall + $185 realized (sim).

Quote from HurricaneUS:Wide Tailz has just admitted that he can't trade worth shit
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I believe it was my trading long in a falling market, for the most part.
 
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