Catching Tails

[Wide Tailz]

HEK taking the shape. I'm seeing a possible bear flag on the general market indices, however, which may invalidate this bullish setup.

Typically when a trade like this fails you just get a muted C wave instead of a healthy 3rd. When it succeeds you get an accelerating spike on huge volume that impales the top bollinger band.

 

[Wide Tailz]

What's up, elitists.

Another week paper trading the ABC12 on top gainers, in the direction of the general market trend.

+ $485 this week, but I only traded 2 out of 5 days.

Same story - lots of minor wins & losses with one or two outlier wins making all the money.

Quote from HurricaneUS:

Wide Tailz has just admitted that he can't trade worth shit

I have to almost force myself to take my signals. It feels very awkward. Considering how inappropriate my natural trading impulses are, this is a good sign.

A few more positive weeks of resultz and I'll open the tap on real money again. I just want to be sure I'm not delusional about all this.

 

[college ruled]

Will someone please explain even briefly what "catching a tail" means? I've even seen a thread here about catching a 'wide tail". I assume a wide tail is better catch?
What's a "tail"?
Sounds like something i should know about.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Slang term related to a bell curve statistical distribution - the "tails" are the very outer sides of the graph where the data points that do not match the average. Stock prices, when they take off and obliterate the range, are sometimes called "fat tails".

Since I am basically following the trend, hoping to catch these freak moves, the catch phrase I like is "catching tails". Big money is harnessed if you are on the right side of these moves. One win can make up for 5 losses.

 

[college ruled]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

Slang term related to a bell curve statistical distribution - the "tails" are the very outer sides of the graph where the data points that do not match the average. Stock prices, when they take off and obliterate the range, are sometimes called "fat tails".

Since I am basically following the trend, hoping to catch these freak moves, the catch phrase I like is "catching tails". Big money is harnessed if you are on the right side of these moves. One win can make up for 5 losses.

ok...u'm trying to picture this..

 

[college ruled]

Quote from Wide Tailz:

Slang term related to a bell curve statistical distribution - the "tails" are the very outer sides of the graph where the data points that do not match the average. Stock prices, when they take off and obliterate the range, are sometimes called "fat tails".

Since I am basically following the trend, hoping to catch these freak moves, the catch phrase I like is "catching tails". Big money is harnessed if you are on the right side of these moves. One win can make up for 5 losses.

Is this a sophisticated way of saying I want to sell tops and buy bottoms?

Who doesn't?

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from college ruled:

Is this a sophisticated way of saying I want to sell tops and buy bottoms?

Who doesn't?

no its not..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat-tailed_distribution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

read all this.. then ask questions... tails are the part of the distro that is outside the middle 95-98% of the distro.. its the part of reality we don't know anything about really.. because we have such limited data... the unknown unknowns..
read that stuff then ask questions..

 

[Wide Tailz]

I see a lot of posters saying The Market was dead today.

Here is why I like these smallcap top gainers: BIOF lit off from its base today and more than made up for the other 7 positions that did nothing. When you catch one, it's for real.

+ $330 on the day, sim of course.

This whole style seems a lot like what pennystockers do: buy them by the dozen, hope one pops, although I have found that buying runners or spikes from a long base have done the best.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Greetings, Elite financial combatants.

What a market this week!

I hope you all captured the down draft and / or range.

As for me, I slept in and did not close out my positions Tuesday morning before the waterfall, and gave back all profits, and more.

Then, while experimenting with the parabola / spike fade (short) technique, had a couple wins and losses for no real gain.

Then, yesderday I put on about 5 ABC12 / third wave breakout (long) trades which captured $500-700 profit, closed out successfully this afternoon.

Overall down slightly for the week, but much wisdom gained in the mean time.

The takeaway: ABC12 / third wave breakout (long) setup on top gainers works under all market conditions other than a waterfall (c wave) puke down. I'm surprised how resilient the setup is.

On the other hand, the spike / parabola fade (short) setup is very dependent on the volume profile leading up to the climax. The short signal should be as crisp or loose as the volume dropoff. Interesting stuff, and insights that could only be gained by taking the pressure off and trading sim.

 

[Wide Tailz]

Greetingz, my good friends.

No real action on paper or live over the past couple weeks. Market mood has been bearish so I've been waiting for a third wave short setup on the daily for SPY, so I can pile into FAZ. If I had a margin account I would be shorting individual stocks using the ABC12 / third wave breakout setup.