Man, I have this exact problem. My issue is patterns dont set up the same most of the time like they do in stocks. Ive found some things that work using vxx/uvxy, but it's still a very different trading style. Also during fed minutes when the market makes crazy swings right when news is released, I do really well in those conditions based solely off of price action and 5 minute candles. The futures markets also tend to kick you out of trades when using stops just to screw you over and go in your direction. It really bugs me, stocks have been very choppy/slow lately, especially the small cap markets. I would love to have something liquid/sustainable like the /es.
Can't win in futures trading
- Thread starter ctmvas
- Start date
Appreciate your providing this video..That being said, I've watched and closely followed half of it and as an experienced trader all I can say is that this must be a demo or paper trading account as this dude is reckless.
For one, he doesn't seem concerned with placing stops..Secondly, he did the "More-on" trade..that is, added to a losing position. Additionally, he doesn't seem concerned with knowing where the overall mkt is..just where his positions are(FB, AAPL & GILD).
I'm not going to even watch the rest of the video as no doubt it all turns out well(or you wouldn't of posted it ;-)).
I'll assume the mkt was up while he was putting on these 3 trades.
Should the mkt had headed south from this point, both his winning trades(AAPL & FB) would probably of soured quickly and his short trade, GILD, could of gone from a $1,500 loss to potential 3 or 4K loss.
Not the way to trade..........................
The definition of Professional is that you make a living from it, what ever it may be, as soon you stop doing this, you lose that status when you start losing, so Pro's don't lose.
Lol
I'm using a 42sma coloured, so i can see its direction no mattee how weak, and only trade with that.
Then I use a BB 42 1.3, a move outside will likely continue in that direction, if on wrong side, bail at a sensible place.
No SL is key
So getting long is positive slope on the 42 and exit on crossing back inside the BBs? ViceVersa for short?
T,
Did you settle on 42 by trial/error or did you run some software optimization?
I spent a number of years doing a lot of stuff manually, but recently tried using the optimization function inside AMIbroker AFL. I have found it pretty easy to use and the 3D display of performance/drawdown pretty clever on AMI's part when testing systems with a pair of parameters to optimize like fast and slow MA crossovers. Most of the optimizations I have experimented with so far showed very spotty (to me random) performance. But I have only started to play with it. I attached a MA + MA w/offset that I recently ran. Need to invest more time getting further up to speed with the tool.
Cheers!
Bruce
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It doesn't matter if they don't set up the *same*. All that matters is they setup *enough* that taking them produces a positive expectancy.
If you know this is going to happen why not:
- Increase your stop and adjust size that'll work risk-wise with that wider stop.
- Anticipate it about to happen and take advantage of it for a better entry.
- Get back in the trade if you realize it was a "shit happens" stop run and you were too early.
- Recognize areas where you'll be predated upon and let everyone else get punched in the face, then enter.
Have you back-tested your strategy? Or did you just wake up one morning and decide you want to trade futures? I have a feeling the reason most people fail at futures - on top of trading being difficult and blah blah blah - is because of the leverage. At $100-250 risk per trade it's easy to lose perspective and mismanage your position. Take just 5 losses in a row and that's $500. The irony of futures trading is they require much less margin than stocks, but the leverage is absolutely killer.
My advice: trade SPY instead of ES. That's the easiest way into futures, 98% of the time they do the same exact thing, and SPY has a more manageable tick size. USO is a really crappy proxy for crude oil so my advice is to stay away from that and just build capital/experience until you can play CL directly (and if you think ES is scary with leverage, just wait till you try CL and GC).
Once you can bank coin on SPY and can function clearly at the 500-1000 share level you're ready to move to ES.
Do the exact opposite of what you are currently doing and every trade should go in your favor.
I fight the urge to enter early as well. The fear of missing the trade is powerful, especially if you missed an earlier entry. Usually you get a second entry that is more confirmed anyway.
Really depends what and when you trade. I've seen stocks sell off into the abyss in a matter of seconds. Later entry can be risky with that type of exhaustion
I trade futures, the NQ and TF for the most part, so I can't speak with experience regarding stocks. There are always going to be days when you only get that one chance. However, there is always tomorrow. IMHO, chasing is the worst thing to do. It can put you in the wrong frame of mind once you enter. In current conditions, I can have 30-40 valid entry signals a week that reach the expected target. More than enough to miss a few.