mr turveyd,
yes, there is.
why not disprove a couple of these and put mr bulkowski in his place?
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...st-right-here-baby.335635/page-8#post-4993294
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Candlestick probability
- Thread starter Amatrue
- Start date
yes, there is.
why not disprove a couple of these and put mr bulkowski in his place?
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...st-right-here-baby.335635/page-8#post-4993294
Al Brooks price action trading idea
is based on bar by bar changing
probabilities. Although it requires
looking back for more than one bar.
His theory is that HFT algorithms
use previous bars to determine trades
so the previous bar predicting next bar
is a consequence of HFT programs.
Brooks uses 5 minute charts. In my view
markets should just use Stiglitz
discrete periodic matching.
is based on bar by bar changing
probabilities. Although it requires
looking back for more than one bar.
His theory is that HFT algorithms
use previous bars to determine trades
so the previous bar predicting next bar
is a consequence of HFT programs.
Brooks uses 5 minute charts. In my view
markets should just use Stiglitz
discrete periodic matching.
So in my trade on CL today, I decided to do 2 contracts. High resistance was far away, so I wanted to kill one of the contracts if I saw a candle go above minor resistance or take small profit at a minor support. So I see a candle form above the minor resistance and try to kill one of the contracts but end up instead adding another contract.So I eventually am able to kill 2 contracts and have 1 left to now go to around minor support. I am now down $ 100. I then add a long contract on ES since it's near a minor support, and then of course ES candle starts break support so I kill that trade with just a 1 tick loss which is around $ 12 so no big deal.
Of course after making a higher candle, CL reverses short and then goes near my 1st target so I kill it to reduce my overall loss due to stupid mistakes.
Now remember oil report came out today which was bearish with a strong build up of oil. So with high supply you get lower prices which is what they teach in basic Economics which may be a good class to take if u trade.
So I did not remember that sometimes you will get these head fake candles and/or false breakouts to trap longs before price reverses back down. I should have just left the trade alone and of course not over traded by fucking with ES.
I then put a limit order to get me back into my short right under the head fake candle, which was filled and then I was able to get out again at minor support to turn a losing night into a minor profit.
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No there isn't, it merely appears that was as when you back test you only see the times it works not the times it doesn't, there 50/50 so mignt aswell flip a coin.
Oracle isn't reading candles, he's playing a range and previous support / resistance levels.
"No big deal"??
You just described a coin flip, and associated that with positive expectancy. That's a pretty *big* deal.
^^ THIS ^^
There's a difference in this coin flip, Tom. It's a biased coin. When you win, it goes 1.5x+ farther in your direction than against you.
You're welcome to contend and demonstrate anything you wish, but what you have right now is a 40-60 probability range, and having that imbue positive expectancy. "Nope." That's what was responded to.
mr turveyd, show me.
Your the 1 making huge claims, you show me, if this was the case trading would be easy and we'd be rich already.
Off out back in 5hours then I'll show you that your wrong from your own charts.
The answer is "it depends." Regardless of chart time frame, i do find a probability of the current candle movement, when the previous candle was an engulfing candle as described here ...