Then you would be wrong. 5 min is not noise in futures and never has been. Fills in ES are easy since hundreds of contracts can trade per tick so with limit orders there is NO slippage when one is trading 1 - 3 contracts. Maybe you are confused with high frequency stock trading which I don't do. No need for the server to sit on top of the exchange when my trades can last 30 min and sometime not even move for 1 min in either direction. Also, I am looking to make multiple points in profit not 1 tick in profit. In ES 4 ticks are 1 point.
Candlestick probability
- Thread starter Amatrue
- Start date
Then you would be wrong. 5 min is not noise in futures and never has been. Fills in ES are easy since hundreds of contracts can trade per tick so with limit orders there is NO slippage when one is trading 1 - 3 contracts. Maybe you are confused with high frequency stock trading which I don't do. No need for the server to sit on top of the exchange when my trades can last 30 min and sometime not even move for 1 min in either direction. Also, I am looking to make multiple points in profit not 1 tick in profit. In ES 4 ticks are 1 point.
In order to become a BILLIONAIRE, you don't need to look deep into the future. You only need to know 1 bar or candle in advance. If you know that the next bar is going up, BUY; if it's going down, then SELL. Do that all day, every day with just 1,000 shares. You would be filthy rich in no time. I repeat, knowing 1 bar in advance can make all the difference. But the question is, is that possible?
You should test it yourself! 
Without revealing any secrets - I can say that you lack context. I have several signals which in isolation would probably be net losers - yet provide reliable signals when context is added.
Without revealing any secrets - I can say that you lack context. I have several signals which in isolation would probably be net losers - yet provide reliable signals when context is added.
OP, I would suggest you focus on being 40-60% accurate at predicting that you're taking a trade in a real-time uptrend or downtrend on a volatile trading instrument. When you can do that, having a long-term positive expectancy with your system is no big deal.
As far as guessing what price will do after the close of the current candle, I suggest you decide based on PRICE in relation to **something**. That something can be anything you want because your entry is a real-time position, highly relevant to where the market is vs. where you expect it to go to give you either a reward to risk ratio advantage or a winning pct advantage (you can't have both all the time highly in your favor as they are inversely proportional measures). If you base your entry on one indicator vs another then you are ignoring WHERE price is in real-time (aka lag) and that is going down the wrong road, imo.
As far as guessing what price will do after the close of the current candle, I suggest you decide based on PRICE in relation to **something**. That something can be anything you want because your entry is a real-time position, highly relevant to where the market is vs. where you expect it to go to give you either a reward to risk ratio advantage or a winning pct advantage (you can't have both all the time highly in your favor as they are inversely proportional measures). If you base your entry on one indicator vs another then you are ignoring WHERE price is in real-time (aka lag) and that is going down the wrong road, imo.
Last edited:
"No big deal"??
You just described a coin flip, and associated that with positive expectancy. That's a pretty *big* deal.
^^ THIS ^^
Candlesticks are very small sub class of price patterns. There is program DLPAL S that can find many of those with required statistics but determining if they are fitted or robust is a challenge. Some turn out to be predictive.
Wise statement. As I always say, start with a hypothesis and see if the data match.
mr amatrue,
yes, there is.
No there isn't, it's just teachable then you blame the user for not doing it right when it fails, the only way to make money out of candle stick patterns is to sell a course on them, which is why so many believe, they've bought the cool aid and they won't accept they've been mugged!!