Candle Counting - A market timing near "holy grail."

I see a lot of idiots on ET shorting or going long right into the face of a 1-2 count on the reversal...

It's quite hilarious. Your odds of getting trapped and stopped by the market when trying to fade trend during the reversal counts is 95%+...

The market doesn't like to just go up or down for a day... It likes to push for multiple days...


Yawnnn... Anyway.

This week is kind of annoying. No super high odds trade setups... We either need to go higher for a few days or lower for a couple... To either short or do longs...
 
What are the reversal counts you ask?

The reversal counts are the confirmed buy candles. The two at the market turn that are key to judging how long a move will last.

Unless we get some serious gains out of the gate tomorrow it's heading toward a black Friday/Monday scenario...


The more oversold the market is going into the counts the better... Especially in a bear market like right now. Id be a lot more bullish if this wasn't a wave B of a A-B-C corrective move...


If you look back at may you'll notice two "doomsday" reversal counts... The reversal signals are firing and all the traders are trying to buy... And the market isn't moving! LoL... What comes next... Well DUH!

Just read the tape people! :cool:
 

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Ever heard of Tom Demark?

Let's give credit where it is due lol.

Also, I've came across a few of your threads and I just get a weird feeling that you are either selling something or planning to sell something.
 
Tom Demark?

Never heard of him... Here is a quote from George Taylor...

"The book trader simply follows the trend of prices as they are recorded in his book and the book more or less records the rhythm of the market for Buying, Selling, and Short Selling and once into this swing it records it in a very dependable manner. It is a fact and records show it. For many years back the market has a definite 1-2-3 rhythm varied at times with an extra beat of 123-1 and at times 5. These figures represent days. The market goes up for 1-2-3 days and reacts. The 4th and 5th figure is the variation."

The market has certain fundamentals to it's movement which are facts. It's not possible to really design fundamentally new types of trading systems because the market still plays by the same rulesets as the last hundred years. You can just improve upon the past.


The market trades in precision patterns following a precision ruleset. If your going to swing trade you have to play by the rules that traders have used to move the market since forever...


Most people on ET that have been around the market for a year or more know where it's going over the next few weeks or days generally in my opinion. They just fight the tape or don't have the balls to put money on it.
 
There is however a way a new system of trading could come to be... We simply get together the biggest trading firms and traders in this market... Then decide upon a new pattern of market manipulation.

This pattern style was created back in the 1930's or so... So getting all the pro traders to switch their techniques and to move the market in cycles in a different style would be asking a bit much...

You would find it easier trying to get history re-written... LoL!


Just let price teach you how to trade. Look closely at price and study it's patterns... The math is all there in the open for people to discover it if they are really looking.

I just let price teach me the correct way to trade. That is my methodology.
 
Added in count continuation rule to skip non two candle engulf headfake reversals and do a count continuation on re-engulf.

This matches the fundementals of market movement properly and my lower cyclic indicator.

If the market doesn't pull below/above the previous two days on a one day/week reversal... Before continuation. It's just a continuation. Not a new count. Nobody was blown out by the move so the market is still overextended in the direction of movement.


I mean, most good traders know this by traders instinct alone... But all traders instinct can be explained by math too.


This is better... But I still need to make it show the five when there is new highs then a reversal to a 1 down... So it shows both the three/five up or whatever and the one down on those sharp reversals.

The 11th was technically both a five up and a one down...
 

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I added in a buying low violation rule but decided to ditch it... It created a single false count back in 2005. These events have happened like three times in the last fifteen years. Buying low violations without an engulfing reversal headfake... That is...

It's where buyers come in at the lows after more than four selling days and hold it above the lows for a couple days without an engulfing reversal.

The next push down into new lows is a buying low violation in my book...

Little different than George Taylors interpretation of it I think...
 

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Ok, finally happy... It now shows the current count and the dual valid counts that often happen at sudden reversals at the numbers 3 and 5.

This reduces the need to manually do candle counts or use gut instinct to solve them...


Funky chess game we all play... Big giant money chess game... Who still has Long pawns in play into Thursday/Friday?

I don't have the cahones to hold a long position through the EU meetings... :D Don't care if the odds say it's going a bit higher before we head toward new lows...
 

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Quote from tiddlywinks:

Fibonacci time series can be useful across ANY time frame. Combined with a bar count some internal trading characteristics of the particular instrument can be gleaned.
More...

I disagree. These are self-fullfilling prophecies. These patterns only exist in the market because of traders. So the timeframes they exist on reliably and repetitively are the ones the majority of traders are watching.

I have managed to statistically prove this in backtesting.

The time series may work on other timeframes... But it's only very useful for interpreting price action on the timeframes traders are using it heavily.


Same for the 3-5 day cycle and all this other stuff... It exists because people think it exists... So it comes to life as a self fulfilling prophecy. LoL!!! :D

If you think it takes a lot of traders to make the market match a pattern you are very mistaken...

A mere 5% or less of the market following one set of rules probably has enough of a butterfly effect on the market to shape the natural momentum patterns into what they are. With all the alogo and quant trading it's no wonder the market patterning behavior has become more repetitive and fractalized in recent years.

A lot of very large traders follow range break rulesets... That is one of the most important things to know.
 
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