Candle Counting - A market timing near "holy grail."

[bone]

Patterns and replications in the markets do not last - they get traded away or arbitraged back to zero. That's what defines a successful trader - patterns and consistencies get exploited for fun and profit until they no longer exist.

I can not recall seeing the exact same chart set-up for a trade in over 20 years - each one has it's own characteristics and personality.

We live in an era where there are literally armies of quants and analysts who are employed to do nothing more than filter and sift and ferret out these "consistencies" and trade the holy crap out of them until they disappear. You have automated signal and pattern screening software...

The one constant is that the markets are always changing.

How many times have we seen a young lad find a nice technical set-up, he thinks he has found the holy grail, he projects forward about how his life has been changed forever and that now he is a whale in the goldfish bowl. It lasts four days, maybe four weeks - if he is lucky, maybe four months.

I can think of no other market strategy more inconsistent and drawdown intensive than "market timing" in the traditional sense of the term.

 

[RangeTrader]

Your system must suck... LoL!

I see the exact same daily technical setups 2-4 times per month, and identical weekly setups 3-6 times per year, and identical monthly setups 1-2 times per year...

 

[RangeTrader]

All these different price patterns "Wedges, Head and Shoulders, Etc etc..."

I pay zero attention to them.

The price patterns are unimportant. The market has set targets and times for reaching them. The pattern it makes as it moves between different targets is unimportant.

The price patterns people are watching are more of a "Obfuscation" mechanism to lead them away from the truth... LoL...

 

[bone]

Quote from RangeTrader:

Your system must suck... LoL!

I see the exact same daily technical setups 2-4 times per month, and identical weekly setups 3-6 times per year, and identical monthly setups 1-2 times per year...

Then shut up and trade it with real money, Steve Nison. Works just like any wave count. BTW, the software for candle and wave counts changes on-the-fly. The charts always look better after the settlement than during the trading hours with dynamic data.

 

[FreakofNature]

The blind leading the blind, dangerous business.

 

[RangeTrader]

What were seeing here is how paranoid traders are in reality...

Look at how shorts covered on the three afraid of a rally, then price pushed down to the five today.

The number of sudden 3-1 and 5-1 Switches that exist in the market is statistically impossible. Basically, it's a proven fact as George Taylor and any good swing trader in the last hundred years knows.

For those that need this little tip. They will find this information quite useful.

My job is done here.


This game is so much like poker... There are little tricks to interpreting price action. People trading off these numbers series are in essence "giving away their cards" for all to see! How the market reacts to their repositioning is the most important thing to know. Sometimes their effect is the butterfly that breaks the camels back.

 

[FreakofNature]

Quote from RangeTrader:

What were seeing here is how paranoid traders are in reality...

Look at how shorts covered on the three afraid of a rally, then price pushed down to the five today.

The number of sudden 3-1 and 5-1 Switches that exist in the market is statistically impossible. Basically, it's a proven fact as George Taylor and any good swing trader in the last hundred years knows.

For those that need this little tip. They will find this information quite useful.

My job is done here.

Your rules are far from objective, in fact they are extremely ambiguous.

You come out as the typical trader who got a trading platform, learnt to code indicators and is now having the time of his life in hindsight.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from RangeTrader:

I realized that one of the key techniques I use to judge the market is just candle counting... So I tossed the counts up on my candles... (Yes, I am just too lazy to count so I need an indicator for it. )

Everyone knows the market moves in 3-5 day cycles...


If the market is going into a solid downtrend with weekly aligned technicals... It can go for two entire full daily counts.

Understanding these counts will tell you how far your pushing your luck holding a trade after shorting an exact top or buying an exact bottom. Your odds of reversal against you go up extremely after the 3rd count.

Most market timing techniques that really work are just stupidly simple...

==========
Good points, Range Trender;
but now that you published it, watch for more 7+/ day cycles

''Luck'', as you wrote, while many lotto players mention it frequently;
lotto, is really a stupid tax on people that can not do math.

.Actually your comments are better than average;
i like a 200 day average also Not that 200 days has much to do with 7 or 3 count candles ,LOLWisdom is profitable to direct.

 

[RangeTrader]

As for patterns repeating... Look at a monthly chart... Same exact thing over and over.

Dip, rally, dip rally, dip rally... Break range... Bigger dips, smaller rallies, bigger dips, smaller rallies... Reverse, repeat...


Let me read you uneducated people in here a good quote.

“there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” - Edwin Lefevre

If you notice. My previous chart does show entry and exit areas at exact tops and bottoms with green and Red Diamonds. But, if I showed you my futures trading entry/exit chart you would get dizzy...

I use a dynamic adaptive support/resistance system that shifts automatically minute by minute. It doesn't display the previous support/resistance levels. It shows only current ones for the last few minutes price action so it's only possible to watch it in live trading or replay.


I have honestly done candle counting by gut instinct for years... Only recently did I realize what exactly I was doing. I mean... Everyone knows corrections have two solid sell weeks, but it's actually a three week count if you do it by the rules properly.

 

[gaj]

range - i've been using some variation on 3 and 5 bars for a while now. they're not infallible, and can cause lots of heartburn if you just go into them blindly...but i've got it as part of my system and when i ignore them, i often give back hard earned money.