Can you beat someone who religiously buy and hold bitcoin from inception with trading?

[HolyGrailSeeker]

Trading will always outperform buy and hold if you have wild swings. You said yourself that on paper trend following systems outperform.

You don't optimize the strategy in real time you follow it. I'm not talking day trading. Do it weekly. What stress? follow your plan.

2 reasons to do the extra work. 20% more is a good one. No stress when the market is trending down because you are not losing part of your net worth each week. Drawdowns with a trend following system are usually less.

I don't agree totally. It depends on when you get in to buy and hold and which stock/crypto you bought.

If say you bought 10,000 btc at 0.06. There is no way in blue hell a trader can make more by trading.

Reason being as a trader most of the time you don't go all in 100% of your capital. You will use a portion to place a trade to minimize risk. An investor who got in at a cheap price of a strong stock/crypto will make exponential gains as they are always in 100%.

On top of that a trader will face execution friction at some point too. To take advantage of trend following system you have to get in and out quick at precise price points and a small % difference could mean losing the positive edge if the mistakes/slippage are compounded over time.

 

[johnarb]

Yes, it is hard to hodl. But if you really believe in it you should. This is no different from billionaires whose company stocks they own fluctuates in the billions.

If you want to get to the point of being f**k you type of rich, then you have to learn how to deal with the fluctuations emotionally. Or in your above case, just cash out the $12 million if you think that is money that is good enough to last your whole life.

That's why I posted the picture when it went to $5 but a few weeks before that it was at $30, imagine the emotional stress of that, if holding 10,000 btc's

And it's easy to make decisions in hindsight, but you don't really know where the top is, like right now, if I'm hodling 10,000 btc's, do we think it's going back above $69K or is it another multi year bear market and it's going back to below $10K?

Current m2m value is $480M+ and if it goes to $8K, that's $400M of wealth gone, or put another way, the difference between 9 figure wealth and 8 figure wealth

I can tell you 2014 my crypto portfolio was valued $50K at the peak and I never had that kind of savings, I was literally working paycheck to paycheck sometimes I have to time paying the rent on the day of my payday (direct deposit) or even a day late if payday landed a day later

When we hit that bear market in 2014 and 2 years I lost all the profits, do you know how much it destroys the psyche knowing you let so much money slip away and not knowing if btc will ever come back?

2018 bear market was easier to handle even though the amount of $ lost was hundreds of thousands of $ because I knew it was a bear market that will not last forever same as in 2014-2016, just gotta wait for the bull market cycle and all the cryptos projects were building and I posted so many news here on ET during the bear market of bitcoin and cryptos adoption

Everyone on ET could see the shits I posted here during the bear market, but people would just make fun of my posts, it's ok, I even got tired of posting them and I spent my time working more hours at my dayjob

The person who can give us insight of being that early when bitcoin was worth pennies is @nooby_mcnoob but he doesn't want to share, so that's that

I got so many questions coz I don't even know what wallet was available at that time and where did he buy and also sell, since Coinbase was not around when bitcoin was worth pennies

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

That's why I posted the picture when it went to $5 but a few weeks before that it was at $30, imagine the emotional stress of that, if holding 10,000 btc's

And it's easy to make decisions in hindsight, but you don't really know where the top is, like right now, if I'm hodling 10,000 btc's, do we think it's going back above $69K or is it another multi year bear market and it's going back to below $10K?

Current m2m value is $480M+ and if it goes to $8K, that's $400M of wealth gone, or put another way, the difference between 9 figure wealth and 8 figure wealth

I can tell you 2014 my crypto portfolio was valued $50K at the peak and I never had that kind of savings, I was literally working paycheck to paycheck sometimes I have to time paying the rent on the day of my payday (direct deposit) or even a day late if payday landed a day later

When we hit that bear market in 2014 and 2 years I lost all the profits, do you know how much it destroys the psyche knowing you let so much money slip away and not knowing if btc will ever come back?

2018 bear market was easier to handle even though the amount of $ lost was hundreds of thousands of $ because I knew it was a bear market that will not last forever same as in 2014-2016, just gotta wait for the bull market cycle and all the cryptos projects were building and I posted so many news here on ET during the bear market of bitcoin and cryptos adoption

Everyone on ET could see the shits I posted here during the bear market, but people would just make fun of my posts, it's ok, I even got tired of posting them and I spent my time working more hours at my dayjob

The person who can give us insight of being that early when bitcoin was worth pennies is @nooby_mcnoob but he doesn't want to share, so that's that

I got so many questions coz I don't even know what wallet was available at that time and where did he buy and also sell, since Coinbase was not around when bitcoin was worth pennies

That is why there is no 100% correct answer, it depends on an individual's goals and tolerance level.

If you want a technically correct answer. You have to trade a billion like how you trade $10k. A 10% loss is a 10% loss. But to one it is $100 million to the other it is $1k. Psychologically it affects your psyche the larger amount to trade so practically you will scale down although the correct technical answer would be trade in terms of percentages and not dollar amount.

 

[virtusa]

If say you bought 10,000 btc at 0.06. There is no way in blue hell a trader can make more by trading.

The first word in your post is already a problem.
There are millions of people trading crypto's. 99.9999% never bought at 0.06. So your 0.06 price is not realistic.
When was BTC trading at 0.06? Exact date?

I found september 2014 at 408$.
If a trader makes netto 1.27% a week, he has the same return as the BTC holder since 2014, without the risk of te huge crashes.
On top of that the thousands % of increase are becoming more and more difficult to realize as BTC is at a much higher price now. That reduces the chances that the returns that BTC made in the beginning, can be maintained. From 0.06 to 0.12 is +100%. To jump up today 100%, BTC should move up almost $48.000.

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

The first word in your post is already a problem.
There are millions of people trading crypto's. 99.9999% never bought at 0.06. So your 0.06 price is not realistic.
When was BTC trading at 0.06? Exact date?

I found september 2014 at 408$.
If a trader makes netto 1.27% a week, he has the same return as the BTC holder since 2014, without the risk of te huge crashes.
On top of that the thousands % of increase are becoming more and more difficult to realize as BTC is at a much higher price now. That reduces the chances that the returns that BTC made in the beginning, can be maintained. From 0.06 to 0.12 is +100%. To jump up today 100%, BTC should move up almost $48.000.

This can be said of every bottoms of the bear market. It will be hard for a trader to beat someone who bought btc at $3k++ in 2018.

There's a reason why crypto billionaires become billionaires by holding. I've never heard of a crypto trader becoming a billionaire.

 

[virtusa]

This can be said of every bottoms of the bear market. It will be hard for a trader to beat someone who bought btc at $3k++ in 2018.

Wrong, I will show you how you beat the hodler:

• buy 1 BTC in june 2019 at $3,000
  
• sell that coin in dec 2019 for $13,000
• buy for $13,000 end of 2019 so you get 1.625 BTC
• hold till today

Hodler has $47,000 (1 BTC)
Trader has $76,375 (1.624 BTC)

 

[Dennella]

If you can identify the right buying and selling opportunities, there’s nothing better than trading. There had been a huge price difference in bitcoin’s highs and lows. Bitcoin, after reaching $60k has crashed to even $24k which was a great opportunity to own more bitcoins. If one had sold his holdings at the highest price, he could have bought in again at the lowest price.

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

If you can identify the right buying and selling opportunities, there’s nothing better than trading. There had been a huge price difference in bitcoin’s highs and lows. Bitcoin, after reaching $60k has crashed to even $24k which was a great opportunity to own more bitcoins. If one had sold his holdings at the highest price, he could have bought in again at the lowest price.

Again, I've never heard of any crypto billionaire trader. Literally all of them became billionaires simply by holding. I rest my case.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

@nooby_mcnoob How many thousands of btc's did you own at pennies and what was your reason for selling at a few $ price/btc? Would love see your perspectives on this

I think I bought $1K worth in 2011. I sold because Bitcoin wasn't actually private.

My perspective hasn't changed. Bitcoin isn't the crypto for me. Gold backed crypto would be nice, except you can't get decentralization since someone has to custody the gold. So the winner for crypto*CURRENCY* will be government backed crypto, or a fiat-linked stablecoin.

But I agree that if you are YOLOing you need to be comfortable with the fluctuations and YOLOs should be a thing you do.

 

[virtusa]

Again, I've never heard of any crypto billionaire trader. Literally all of them became billionaires simply by holding. I rest my case.

Billionaires in the crypto world only became partially rich from holding coins. So your statement that crypto billionaires became billionaire thanks to holding coins is very inaccurate.

1. Bankman-Fried’s net worth more than doubled to $22.5 billion thanks to a recent $900 million funding round for his crypto exchange FTX, which valued the company at 18 billion. The net worth of Bankman was calculated on the value of his company, not on the number of coins he had. It is possible that the major part of his billionaireship came not from holding coins.
   
2. Armstrong co-founded Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange by trading volume, and owns 19% of the company. His estimated net worth is $11.5 billion.
3. Larsen is the co-founder and chairman of crypto payment protocol Ripple and was the only crypto billionaire featured on last year’s Forbes richest list. His estimated net worth is $6 billion.
4. The Winklevoss twins are the founders of crypto exchange Gemini and each worth an estimated $4.3 billion.
5. Ehrsam Fred, a co-founder of Coinbase left the exchange in 2017 and now works for crypto investment firm Paradigm. His estimated net worth is $3.5 billion.
6. McCaleb a co-founder of Ripple and Stellar, was responsible for launching Mt. Gox, the first major bitcoin exchange, which he sold before it got hacked. His estimated net worth is $3 billion.

All these billionaires were co-owner or co-founder of an exchange and made there billions mostly there.