Can you beat someone who religiously buy and hold bitcoin from inception with trading?

[HolyGrailSeeker]

It's so difficult to trade Bitcoin or any other alt coin. Just having a stop loss is difficult because with these heavy manipulated markets the exchange owners and big players know where everyone keeps their stop losses at and they will always move the market to trigger it before shooting the other direction. You actually save more money not having a stop or using a phone alert system.

Swing trading is where it's at. Holding is less risky and less profitable than swing trading, but safer

Very true. Alot of ppl are also heavily leveraged. They get rekt sooner or later.

 

[Pekelo]

India plans to ban private cryptos. Local market crashes, withdrawals blocked.

After China, the second most populous country following the same banning policy. That is 1/3rd of humankind out.

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

And buying 1000 dollars worth and now being rich beyond your wildest dreams isn't hindsight.

I haven't looked at the chart but it will depend on how you define a trend. I define it as making higher highs and higher lows (reverse for down trend) A ranging month might not change a trend.

I'm not sure you will have the moves you did in the past, but trading the trend tends to out perform buy and hold. Of course you get whipsawed at times but you don't lose a lot. All you need is a couple cases with an extreme drop where you sell high and buy low to outperform buy and hold. After a situation where you have sold then bought back at a lower price you will have more shares that when you started.

If you have an instrument that never changes trend then buy and hold will end up the same as a trend follower because the trend follower will have held because there was no reason to exit.

Depends on where you buy and hold. If you bought at the infancy or the bottom of a bear market it is hard or near impossible to outperform that.

Trend following systems while on paper outperform buy and hold but it is curve fitted to more than a decade worth of btc prices data. If you were to use the system while the market is at play it is different and you have to continue to optimize the strategy. Consider emotions, human mistakes, stress, trading fees, slippage and liquidity issues (at the start) maybe just maybe the perfect trader with the perfect system would eek out a tiny bit more profits than someone who buy and hold. But why earn 20% more for 10 times the work?

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

Dear OP, let me explain why your question is dumb:

You could have asked, can you beat a constant Tesla stock buyer since the IPO? Obviously we can't...

Or instead of BTC or TSLA, you could have used any high return stock. The point is, nobody knew back then they would perform this way.

But if you ask: Can you beat a constant buyer of a crypto from now on? That is a valid question. Most of the big move is behind BTC, so we shall see how averaging in would work for you.

Personally I believe playing the wheel on crypto stocks is a better return, because:

1. Even if it runs up, you probably wouldn't sell, thus you would time the top wrong.
2. You make money, no matter what the stock/crypto does (well, almost). Time works for you.

If you are honestly interested in the answer, you can check out Baron's crypto journal. And stop asking dumb questions...

No one truly knows until it's played out. That is why trading/investing is part art part science. If someone is well to do, dumping $1k on something that looks like a promising revolutionary idea like btc isn't far fetched.

 

[deaddog]

Depends on where you buy and hold. If you bought at the infancy or the bottom of a bear market it is hard or near impossible to outperform that.

Trading will always outperform buy and hold if you have wild swings. You said yourself that on paper trend following systems outperform.

You don't optimize the strategy in real time you follow it. I'm not talking day trading. Do it weekly. What stress? follow your plan.

2 reasons to do the extra work. 20% more is a good one. No stress when the market is trending down because you are not losing part of your net worth each week. Drawdowns with a trend following system are usually less.

 

[divoc]

India plans to ban private cryptos. Local market crashes, withdrawals blocked.

After China, the second most populous country following the same banning policy. That is 1/3rd of humankind out.

You keep saying this in all the threads here.
Do you understand their definition of private cryptos?
I think obviously not.
With the US Goldman sachs and Fidelity's worldwide reach in financial markets and especially those in India, do you think Bitcoin and Etherium are private?
No!
Do you read?

 

[Pekelo]

You keep saying this in all the threads here.
Do you understand their definition of private cryptos?

Sure. A non-government issued coin is a private coin. Does that help you?

 

[nickiewinters]

I don’t think there’s any benefit of holding crypto. You never know when the government will wake up and ban it in your country. Trade it and earn as much as you can until you’ve got the time.

 

[johnarb]

@HolyGrailSeeker the events of the past few weeks show how difficult it is to hold btc from pennies all the way to now? Imagine holding 10,000 btc's at $1,200 ($12M) and watch it drift down to $1.5M over the course of 2 years (2014-2016)

Or see the value from $170M all the way to $35M (2018-2019)

And now, from $690M all the way to $420M in a few weeks time

@nooby_mcnoob How many thousands of btc's did you own at pennies and what was your reason for selling at a few $ price/btc? Would love see your perspectives on this

Price action is everything. So long as it trends down I personally would not be buying it. I learned that the hard way, eg don't buy downtrends, don't add to underwater positions. But once it pivots up I buy. I usually add to positions at 2day highs and scale out at 2day lows for the stocks and ETFs I trade. But btc is very volatile, I don't trade it. This latest drop could well be a buying opportunity, or the start of more selling.... who knows. Best wishes to those trading it. Not a trading recommendation.

 

[HolyGrailSeeker]

@HolyGrailSeeker the events of the past few weeks show how difficult it is to hold btc from pennies all the way to now? Imagine holding 10,000 btc's at $1,200 ($12M) and watch it drift down to $1.5M over the course of 2 years (2014-2016)

Or see the value from $170M all the way to $35M (2018-2019)

And now, from $690M all the way to $420M in a few weeks time

Yes, it is hard to hodl. But if you really believe in it you should. This is no different from billionaires whose company stocks they own fluctuates in the billions.

If you want to get to the point of being f**k you type of rich, then you have to learn how to deal with the fluctuations emotionally. Or in your above case, just cash out the $12 million if you think that is money that is good enough to last your whole life.