Can Start Buying Natty Now

Quote from Bear Plunger:

Yup. A lot of bull suckers are getting killed these days, trying to pick the bottom.

SHORT THEM
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Its fascinating how the psychology behind price changes as price stabilizes and makes new lows.

ie.. it is much easier to short 6 considering we've been flirting with 5.25 already, and we have an october expiration ahead of us with no gulf storm activity (yet). OTOH, a few months ago I remember buying 7.50, 7.25, 6.50, etc. with all hands and fists and DEATHLY afraid to short it (with so much unknown ahead of hurricane season).

The best trades are the most painful.

that vx spread is around 82c right now. the hj is at 37c. The hj price makes sense to me here; the vx does not. I'd sell it at 1.00, but not here (considering there is a lot of support for the spread in this price zone). My 'common sense' tells me that VX is a sell down to the 30 or 40c range. But I don't have the balls to do that (not after what I've been thru in this market).
 
"Yup. A lot of bull suckers are getting killed these days, trying to pick the bottom."


schnitzel small position on weakness days and lighten up position during strength)

this is how to build a longterm long position

when crude was $20 cheaper, THAT was the time to buy. but nobody wanted it.

NG is in a similar boat. all we need is some geo event, or whatnot and it will ramp

it's a commodity. if you don't overleverage and you have a longer time frame, weakness is a great buy opp
 
wow.

i sold a fair portion of my UNG IRA holding today. 40.10

again, my longterm strategy with commodities is buy on weakness and sell on strength. don't chase.

beautiful natgas!!!
 
sweet i killed ung. had 4800 shares avg $34.38. just kep averaging in as it held the bottoms. sold all today as i think a huge recession will take natty to $4 or less
 
Quote from whitster:

wow.

i sold a fair portion of my UNG IRA holding today. 40.10

again, my longterm strategy with commodities is buy on weakness and sell on strength. don't chase.

beautiful natgas!!!
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thats some 'long term' strategy you trade...

:)

[ 1 week? ]
 
i wasn't expecting 15% + in a week lol

when I bought oil, it took a few months to get 25%

but when something i own moves that far, that fast, i take some profit. imo, doesn't pay to get greedy or euphoric.

i still have 1/3 and will add on weakness, but i was expecting this to take longer to move this fast, AND remember i hold these as much as a hedge, as i do as a directional trade
 
Hi guys,

I have been holding my position and reinforcing it as well. My average price is now 6.10 so I am now positive. Pfew, at last !!! Funny because I posted a Technical analysis on my website yesterday, saying that if 6 was broken, NG would be heading towards the gap zone between 6.8 and 7. It''s on the road !!
 
fwiw, when it comes to commodities, i don't even pay much, if any attention to TA (for swings/hedge trades) except that i buy after there has been prolonged weakness and wait to sell into strength

that prevents chasing and gets me a good (historical price)

commodities are "different" in that the best cure for low prices IS low prices as has been oft-commented on. it's also why scale traders do very well in commodities.
 
Quote from Sequoia:

Hi guys,

I have been holding my position and reinforcing it as well. My average price is now 6.10 so I am now positive. Pfew, at last !!! Funny because I posted a Technical analysis on my website yesterday, saying that if 6 was broken, NG would be heading towards the gap zone between 6.8 and 7. It''s on the road !!
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the 'irrational exuberance' in NG doesn't last long.

About a few hours.

This is a super-bear.
 
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