Can Start Buying Natty Now
- Thread starter Comanche
- Start date
Not so massive when you consider a few weeks of below average winter weather can wipe out that deficit entirely. We were hitting 200-250bcf (7%) withdrawals per week this winter.
On the other hand, no winter weather and who knows.
A fascinating market -- inelastic supply, elastic demand.
Still short, although several very interesting waves are coming off the coast which may develop, would still love to see 4.50 cash, but ready to switch at any time. First time i have seen a wave that has caused me some concern, but give it 2-3 days to see if it develops, time will tell. The Sahara dust seems to be diminishing. 
Yeah, the move in crude was big, but it was only 2.5% off of it's low compared with the nearly 13% that natty rallied from low to high on the session. Natty rallied from 5.65 to 5.97 just in the last 30 minutes of trade! The only catalysts I am aware of are potential tropical storm activity in the Atlantic and the attacks on Pemex's Mexico operations that affected as much as 25% of Mexico's natty production, but that were not expected to affect imports to the US according to Mexican officials. Everyone I know was perplexed by the magnitude of the move, including myself, but there doesn't always have to be a reason, as I am oftentimes forced to remind myself...
... just watch em sell it down to 5.25 again.
(within 1 week)
(within 1 week)
Yup. A lot of bull suckers are getting killed these days, trying to pick the bottom.
SHORT THEM