can price action predict market moves

[vincentnyc]

i don't use elliot waves, bollinger band, macd, rsi, fibonacci, moving averages or even volume etc.

i use what works for me. areas of interest...support and resistance based on my strategy and technique (not just any areas of support of support and resistance). i also filter stonks based on my criteria (i.e. 52 weeks high). And not just any 52 weeks high. there are other criteria which i won't go into.

 

[DiceAreCast]

Most that are classified by exchanges as professional and who undertake and manage risk, which excludes those who make markets, liquidity providers, dealers, brokers.

And who exactly are those professionals? Link, please?

I'm generally not interested in the research of others as I rely on my own research and custom developed tools (among which I have a statistical model not based on charts) to help my trading. It's all TA, of course.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Most that are classified by exchanges as professional and who undertake and manage risk, which excludes those who make markets, liquidity providers, dealers, brokers.

You did not provide a link which proves your claims. Further more - that's only one subset of professional market participants.

I know that I personally have never had any interest in being a market maker, nor any illusion that it's something I could do profitably as a retail trader.

 

[stockpredictor]

Yep, anyone can set up a spreadsheet. That does not prove anything at all. Again, TA sometimes works, most of the times it does not, else everyone on Wallstreet would be using it. They don't.

Not everyone can call the trades live, which I did as evidenced by lack of edits and multiple other users agreeing. Highs/Lows of day were caught a statistically significant number of times. Wallstreet guys go bust often, they're not invincible. TA is a broad science, not the retail triangle HS trash.

 

[bone]

I am also very wary of the notion of "predictive power". For anything.

You take the very best risk vs. reward you can, and however you can model it. An awful lot of successful traders that I've personally seen in my career model price, among other metrics.

I don't think anyone minimizes the value of prices, but to start with past prices have very little predictive power of future prices in isolation. There is a reason professionals look at the market holistically because the past prices of an asset itself only impact its future price by a margin. But one step further down into the basement is to pretend that some chart formations have predictive power. They don't, that myth has been debunked by every professional trader and yet the lazy retail crowd is hooked to charts as if there is no tomorrow. That only allows for one conclusion, professionals know things a retailer does not. And retailers don't have access to an infrastructure that allows for cross asset correlation analyses and the like. That does in no way mean that if a retailer sticks to the only data that are at his disposal that profits are guaranteed. The high loss ratio among retail traders is a testimony to that fact.

 

[Master Pu]

Evaluating past vs future price performance, the reason charts make sense, is because often what happened in the past still may have the same level of interest in the future. If you don't know what can happen to price, reversal and consequent range expansion, even if it's 50/50 expectation, after it failed to go through a past key level, then if I was a professional trader, I would at least keep this level of ignorance to myself and not go public with my evaluation of past vs future of price behavior #pasthasnomeaninginthefuture

 

[DiceAreCast]

... hence why I excluded market makers. Sigh...

You did not provide a link which proves your claims. Further more - that's only one subset of professional market participants.

I know that I personally have never had any interest in being a market maker, nor any illusion that it's something I could do profitably as a retail trader.

 

[DiceAreCast]

You can obtain all that information without charts.

Evaluating past vs future price performance, the reason charts make sense, is because often what happened in the past still may have the same level of interest in the future. If you don't know what can happen to price, reversal and consequent range expansion, even if it's 50/50 expectation, after it failed to go through a past key level, then if I was a professional trader, I would at least keep this level of ignorance to myself and not go public with my evaluation of past vs future of price behavior #pasthasnomeaninginthefuture

 

[bone]

Charts and Technical Indicators are a statistical study whether anyone cares to admit it or not.

I would recommend the book Modeling Financial Time Series with S-Plus, by Zivot.

 

[Master Pu]

You can obtain all that information without charts.

Yes, this is true. Visually though, charts offer a quicker referencing point.