Bye, bye YEN Carry Trades...?

Quote from Mvic:

I am long here @8210, thinking we are going to get a spike next week above 8300 then when the bonus money is available mid month it will pour in to EMs and the yen will give up on 8200 and make new lows for the year.
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This is shaping up as highly accurate, creating an excellent set up: tiny drawdown (6 or 7 ticks), with .8300 possibly taken out today. Equities meltdown in Europe with follow thru here this morning looks to be cause.

Nikkei held up pretty well overnight after yesterday's equities drop in New York, which is why I commented last night (early in Tokyo session) that I thought YEN would not strengthen much. Will it pivot at .8300?
 
I'm out this trade at 79 average for +69. I am loaded with EEM puts and didn't want any additional risk overnight if todays rout turns in to just another minor dip. If it does Yen goes to new lows quickly. Infact I will be looking for a level to go heavy short the Yen if I see buying come back in to equities.

If selling increases and technicals confirm in equities then yen could pop back to 84-86, maybe higher if this is a significant correction. Either way it is a risky play as the moves in either direction could be swift. Options on the futures are still very cheap and probably a good way to play the yen here.
 
Time and patience are not meant to be used when you're holding an interest negative position.

Time and patience will eat your account.
 
Quote from Chood:

I'm shorting the near-month YEN future this session, on belief that gradual fall in price of JGBs make YEN less attractive in the near term (3 mos or so). This set up isn't about fundamentals, but about what will return best in the short run (the expectation). JGBs aren't it.

Shorting between .8250 up to about .8270, up to four total, with stop for all 70 ticks from avg in. Looking for .8120.
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Early gains in JGBs tonight (Tokyo Monday) erased and routed after hot GDP number. I may regret not keeping my YEN shorts, although my instinct tells me that other markets will provide better opportunities over the next weeks. Price action in USD may look like a sideshow compared to equities.
 
Japan's current account surplus widened at the fastest pace in three years in April as exports rose and a weaker yen increased the value of investments abroad.

The surplus expanded 50.3 percent to 1.99 trillion yen ($16 billion) from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for the gap to widen to 1.84 trillion yen.

Anybody realizing that in the near future Japam has to raise rates ?
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

. . .

Anybody realizing that in the near future Japam has to raise rates ?
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I'd say fall in JGBs shows that everybody realizes it.
 
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