Bye, bye YEN Carry Trades...?

Agree… but the West needs to tread very cautiously here ...a sudden bursting of the liquidity bubble will be disastrous for everyone
 
There is no doubt it would cause problems, but won't it burst anyway? Releasing all this "liquidity" is just turning perfectly run corporations into the housing market. Highly leveraged and prone to a huge collapse.

At some point the private sector will refuse to take on more risk. Then what? With breadth getting more narrow we could make the case its already happening.


The global markets need less government participation.
 
Just saying can't be sudden...needs to be gradual..which is what I think they are trying to do...what do you think would really happen if the chinese stop buying the 40 some odd yards of treasuries they have been averaging yearly or begin unloading the 400+ they already have?
 
Quote from Chood:

Can you smell it? Diaper change for rickety YEN longs, wondering why cool data tonight hasn't sent the cash rocketing below 121.
More...

The FEAR is growing. Will payrolls force 'em to capitulate? Will they have the stones even to hang on into that news?
 
Quote from Chood:

As a result of massive research, Job-like patience, and the deft timing a professional such as myself can accomplish, I created a short YEN position about 8 ticks better than the mid point of this session's range, which is about where the price looks to close.

I would like equity in the trade of about one-third of my target going into USA's payrolls -- .8210 would work -- because, from that level, a good jobs number would give me a fifty-fifty change of reaching my target. At a 2 to 1 reward to risk, that would be a good trade.
More...

I'll trail my stop to entry, which is .8257 avg'd in, after Monday session is in full swing. Presently, I have the equity I want, one third the way to my take profit (.8120), but only after the boost of a good US payrolls. That's why I'll trail the stop to break even.
 
I am long here @8210, thinking we are going to get a spike next week above 8300 then when the bonus money is available mid month it will pour in to EMs and the yen will give up on 8200 and make new lows for the year.
 
Quote from Chood:

I'll trail my stop to entry, which is .8257 avg'd in, after Monday session is in full swing. Presently, I have the equity I want, one third the way to my take profit (.8120), but only after the boost of a good US payrolls. That's why I'll trail the stop to break even.
More...

I'm done. Broke even with trailing stop.
 
Nikkei well bid early today (tonight for me), suggesting very little expectation that YEN will strengthen any time soon versus USD.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top