IC,with all due respect,you going along with Ravars haze of unconsciousness is a bad look.
What trader in his right mind buys a "longer dated" option and hopes for a vol contraction??
Keep in mind BW said he will stop himself out on a fixed loss on the option price.There is no doubling down on a vol implosion as he will be stopped out.Ball game over...
Wrong on every level
What trader in his right mind buys a "longer dated" option and hopes for a vol contraction??
Keep in mind BW said he will stop himself out on a fixed loss on the option price.There is no doubling down on a vol implosion as he will be stopped out.Ball game over...
Wrong on every level
1. Agree 5-10% doesn't address vol/vega.
2. I admit, I don't know what I am talking about.
But hear me out, here is some simple math (today's real time quotes):
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1. Let's say today I buy one contract of 6 month ATM ($308) SPY call @ ~$15, IV ~16.
2. If SPY has a growth of 8% (5-10% range). In 6 months, SPY will be @ $323, I break even which is what the market priced the ATM option at.
3. So, the market is expecting 8% growth and there is no edge in buying ATM SPY call.
4. However, if in a week, IV drops to ~8 which is what @raVar said if IV dropped, the ATM SPY call will be ~$8, and I buy one more contract. My average cost will be ~$11.5.
5. In 6 months if today's market price is correct, I would have a profit of $3.5 a share?
Of course SPY won't stay @ $308, SPY might not grow to $323 in six month... But these are all probabilistic outcomes we are talking about at this moment???