But what about copper ?

trefoil · Jan 21, 2014

Just checked the Kitco Base Metals site, looked at the charts for the non-ferrous metals. All of them look like they're putting in a bottom, building a nice long base. Not quite time yet, but looks like it will be soon, for some action to resume here.
Read a story in the Financial Times a week or two ago about some big London commodities hedgie being taken out on his shield, complaining that not only were the prices low, volatility was too. That got my attention, as low volatility is a sign of low attention and low expectations. Been watching the commodities since.

syswizard · Jan 22, 2014

It'll be interesting to see how steel, copper, lead, aluminum are priced if a crash in gold occurs.
Metals have no chance of price increases in light of deflation....which has not yet been eliminated as a possibility for 2014.

syswizard · Jan 23, 2014

Amazing that copper is not down more than a penny or so in light of the swooning equity markets and news that China is not doing that well relative to expectations.

And why is copper holding up ? Once again, same-old, same-old....
low stock levels on the LME: 328,375 tons
That's really low.

Gold is up and the USD is down...and that supports copper prices as well.

syswizard · Jan 23, 2014

Copper futures on the CME now down 4 cents across all contracts.....
Here is the reason:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-factory-data-show-contraction-stocks-drop-2014-01-22

The “flash” version of the HSBC/Markit China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a six-month low of 49.6, down from a final December reading of 50.5, with the data sending Chinese stocks and the Australian dollar all lower.

Economists had expected the flash PMI — which usually includes 85%-90% of total responses used for the final report — to print at 50.3, according to a Bloomberg News forecast. Results below the 50 level indicate contraction, while those above 50 suggest growth.

syswizard · Jan 31, 2014

Drip, drip, drip downward we go. March contract now down to $3.20.
I am amazed copper is still above $3.00 given the latest developments in China and emerging markets. Who is holding it up ?

PieterSteidelmayer · Feb 6, 2014

Relatively low immediate physical available for supply is preventing a major drop, but there is significant forward supply capability in the medium term (2-3 months). It'll shift to over-supply just as soon as the large players are hedged. You'll need to pack a parachute.

Handle123 · Feb 6, 2014

Handle123 said:
I keep rolling over my short positions in Copper and rolling in Long positions on Nat Gas. Just a matter of patience

Nothing has changed for me in these two markets, still rolling over, doing spreads. Charts say for short term selling puts in Copper.

syswizard · Feb 6, 2014

PieterSteidelmayer said:
Relatively low immediate physical available for supply is preventing a major drop, but there is significant forward supply capability in the medium term (2-3 months). It'll shift to over-supply just as soon as the large players are hedged. You'll need to pack a parachute.

It's been a strange-at-best market. With the emerging market crisis, this thing should be way, way under $3.00.
It's really a conundrum as Europe is reflating.....and the slowdown China could be temporary.
Suddenly, this is not a clear and definite short.

PieterSteidelmayer · Feb 6, 2014

syswizard said:
It's been a strange-at-best market. With the emerging market crisis, this thing should be way, way under $3.00.
It's really a conundrum as Europe is reflating.....and the slowdown China could be temporary.
Suddenly, this is not a clear and definite short.

Europe and China got nothing to do with it. They're just a context. Supply & Demand are the only factors. Demand is relatively stable - supply is currently lower than required to meet demand which would ordinarily be pumping the price way up. The only thing stopping it fly is that major supply will be coming in within the next few months.

It's a definite short.

syswizard · Feb 6, 2014

PieterSteidelmayer said:
Europe and China got nothing to do with it. They're just a context. Supply & Demand are the only factors.

China has EVERYTHING to do with the price of copper. Of course, the generic "supply and demand" situation always dictates....but we are talking SPECIFICS here.
Remember: Speculator Dennis Gartman has been a copper bull.....for quite some time.