But what about copper ?

[trefoil]

There is a supply deficit, an artificial one. And even that isn't causing the price to rise. Take the hint. Massive supply on-line in 2-3 months. We'll be sub-3.00 spot for the first time in 4 years before the end of April. I am done trying to advise others of the information that is already out there in the public domain with respect to Copper and what that most likely means to price development. Good trading.

OK, I think I have the thesis you and syswizard are favoring: off exchange hoarding, deliberately done, that will quickly be revealed if the price rises. Is that it, or is there something else?
I wouldn't be surprised re copper, as like any other industrial commodity it's subject to substitution: PVC pipes can easily sub for copper pipes. That still leaves electrical wiring, but that's a big market that can and has gone south already.

 

[syswizard]

There is a supply deficit, an artificial one. And even that isn't causing the price to rise. Take the hint. Massive supply on-line in 2-3 months. We'll be sub-3.00 spot for the first time in 4 years before the end of April. I am done trying to advise others of the information that is already out there in the public domain with respect to Copper and what that most likely means to price development. Good trading.

This is EXACTLY the case....the word "artificial" SO MUCH depicts this market.
As you see in my prior posts, I keep asking "Who's holding this market up ?"
At one point I thought Michael Farmer was doing it.....
Once the $3.00 is broken, it's "lights out" for this commodity.

 

[trefoil]

All the base metals got a bump on the China import/export numbers just released. I guess it would be correct to assume you guys don't believe those numbers?

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

All the base metals got a bump on the China import/export numbers just released. I guess it would be correct to assume you guys don't believe those numbers?

I guess your idea of 'bump' and mine are a little different. The actual numbers are largely irrelevant as is whether you believe them or not; all that matters is the market's response to them.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

OK, I think I have the thesis you and syswizard are favoring: off exchange hoarding, deliberately done, that will quickly be revealed if the price rises. Is that it, or is there something else?
I wouldn't be surprised re copper, as like any other industrial commodity it's subject to substitution: PVC pipes can easily sub for copper pipes. That still leaves electrical wiring, but that's a big market that can and has gone south already.

Off-exchange hoarding can and does occur, but in this case the real deal is the over-supply coming down the line.

Don't get too fixated on utilization of the physical; there are $7 trillion in derivatives sloshing around the markets every day and very little of that has any real world significance. The guys who actually need to purchase and take delivery of physical are a savvy bunch. They're not going to buy forwards if they know they can purchase at market cheaper at that same forward date.

 

[syswizard]

They're not going to buy forwards if they know they can purchase at market cheaper at that same forward date.

A couple of months back this market was in fairly steep contango. Now it's flattish....and that action presumably indicates a stronger market in the future.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

A couple of months back this market was in fairly steep contango. Now it's flattish....and that action presumably indicates a stronger market in the future.

Just check out production quotas at Oyu Tolgoi, Grasberg , Escondida and Xstrata’s Southern Peru combines.330,000 additional tons coming on-line. That's around 7% growth in a market that's got used to less than 2% since 2007 and that with a historically strong spot. We now have a barely supported price even with the current supply constraint. But there's no point me banging the same drum with different sticks as it's going to sound the same whatever. Fundamental analysis of Copper suugests a strong decline in price. New factors may emereg which will require a re-assessment of that posiiton, but as it stands right now, for me, it's heading south.

 

[syswizard]

but as it stands right now, for me, it's heading south.

But not today....strong 4 cent move upwards. Once again, the LME stock levels remain low (303,825 tons)....not good, not good.

 

[toolazy]

message to shorts:

intensity and number of riots increasing globally. this can happen because of misery too many people live in. see news everywhere.

there is no other way to avoid/postpone day of reckoning than reserve banks/politicians producing more cash, and distributing in non conventional way to avoid revolution and all the fuss that brings this mess to rich.

people buy with this money unfinished appartments and lock them up. This trend is gaining traction. Even I am looking into this. it does bring employment.

Why then someone would not buy copper and save. Seems to me pretty good alternative to unfinished appartments. get some jobs to miners

 

[syswizard]

@toolazy:
What were you drinking before making that post ?
All of the energy and activity involved in construction and then they close the place they just built ?
That's productive and sustainable ?

Sorry, no way...that's bogus economics....that's what's happening in China right now.