... but is it doable in reality ?

I've done another calculation on the Nasdaq 100 / NDX, close on July 5th 2024 was 20,391 points.

My base thoughtline is, the NDX reached, in october of 2002, its catharsislow of 790 points - the internet bubble had burst, the intraday high in 2000 was 4,750 .

The index went "online" so to speak in 1985, with a level of 125 points. I simply consider 790 points as fair value in early 2000 (instead of ridiculous 4,750 points when some companies had reached absurd valuation levels based on realistic future earnings estimates).

That equals an annualized return of 14% -> it'd mean around 23,600 points at the end of 2025 !

And now hold on to your seat, 45,000 points in 2030 .
 
I've found this on LinkedIn ... am active there too, this is from somebody I (unfortunately) don't know personally, but these are very wise words I want to share with readers of this thread.

Kudos to the author, Jamie Ebersole, he's the founder of Ebersole Financial LLC.

Quote Jamie, "It's unfortunate that we turn fund managers into superstars and celebrities. Most are lucky or unlucky like everyone else. Right place, right time. Wrong place, wrong time. Cathie was lucky, then unlucky. She has been a good businesswoman and capitalized on that opportunity. People threw a lot of money at her. Returns are good, so we puff her up. Returns are down, so we kick her. Let's stop idolizing people who really aren't much different than you and me.

To be honest, most fund managers make their money from fees, not stellar returns. Name one fund manager who has become a billionaire by just trading their own account and not leveraging it with OPM? But, we have marketing dollars to spend! If 95% or more of all managers underperform the benchmarks over most timeframes (according to SPIVA and most other sources), why are they all in the top 1% of earners? I still can't tell why the Hussman funds have any assets in them, but they still do."

Cathie of course is ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood.

Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund : https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutu...strategic-total-return-fund/hstrx/performance
 
The first half figures are in for British American Tobacco (see page before in this thread), the market reacts very positively. Price now 2,633 pence .

I stick to my expectation that the combination of share buybacks and positive development in the risk-reduced product segment will make the share price rise and the dividend will be raised in the future.

The market leader, however, is Philip Morris International, it derives its biggest revenue share out of risk-reduced products among the tobacco giants.

My idea for an investment portfolio in tobaccos ? I'd invest a third in Altria, a third in Philip Morris International and the remaining third in British American Tobacco.

https://www.pmi.com/media-center/press-releases/press-details/?newsId=27911
 
janbillian said:
To be honest, most fund managers make their money from fees, not stellar returns. Name one fund manager who has become a billionaire by just trading their own account and not leveraging it with OPM?
More...
There are many but you won't find them in any Wall Street publications. They are private and don't need to advertise or don't want to publicize.
 
I think the "b" in billionaire thins the field. Of course I can't say with certainty, but I believe very few can claim to have become billionaires if they started with very little net worth.

The classical business model of aggressively marketed (mutual) funds is of course fee income independently of performance.
 
janbillian said:
This is such a great story, for those of you who want to break into finance professionally.

14 Minutes, worth your valuable time.

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There are so many of these geeky videos floating around on YouTube, mostly from Asians who make it sound easy to leap from the bottom to the top. But is it...especially in the US? :banghead: :banghead::banghead:

 
janbillian said:
I think the "b" in billionaire thins the field. Of course I can't say with certainty, but I believe very few can claim to have become billionaires if they started with very little net worth.

The classical business model of aggressively marketed (mutual) funds is of course fee income independently of performance.
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Agree.

However, there are quite a few "b" who invested with Buffett from years ago and we never heard of them.

The rank of "b" hedge fund managers is also thin and I am not sure if there are any of them on ET? Maybe dest?
 
Of course, not everyone can "leap from bottom to top", @schizo . But there are some great videos on YouTube available that can help undergraduates perspective of at least landing an interview.

@22:21 :
 
All good things are three, this is what formerly was known SAC Capital Advisors, essentially the family office of the very wealthy Steve "Stevie" Cohen who had a supreme information edge :) . Simply click the link to see it on YT .

 
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