... but is it doable in reality ?

It's holiday in my native Germany, but capital markets of course never sleep.

Peter Brandt, interviewed by Jack Schwager for "Unknown Market wizards", has a pretty astounding track record as a market forecaster. He is the founder of Factor Services LLC .

He has switched from bullish to bearish for the Bitcoin (BTCUSD), now has a price target of around 80% below its ATH.

That'd mean around 15,000 U$ - currently trading at around 57,700 US$ (may 1st, 2024) .

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/20...18-collapse-says-the-bull-market-may-be-over/
 
If you are satisfied with a 200% return in 16 years aka tripling your money in 16 years, I stick to my price target of around 56,000 - 60,000 points in the NDX / Nasdaq 100 in the year 2040 .

Volatiliy calibrated ATR has generated great returns on the long-side (remember, try NOT to short the US Stockmarket, its underlying strong upward drift will eventually wipe out short-sellers. Google for Jim Chanos and Kynikos Associates), and the most recent buy signal is fresh !

aZ9R08ZO
 
In addition to Markus Keil, I introduce another german star trader, Max Schulze.

Max began in 2015 with 30,000 €, now his equity has grown to close to 1.5 million € . In 9 years !

The book shown is in english, "The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence"

and is written by Stephen Briese .

 
orbit23 said:
If you want confidence in the system, you need to back-test. Without the confidence your psyche will break after an inevitable string of losers and you will not be able to execute properly. And without consistent execution, there will be no consistent results.
More...

It doesn't matter what your backtest told you, when you start losing money your dedication will wane. Also, I doubt there is any indicator based trading that works at all.
 
I, too, don't see clouds reversing the bull market as of now.

https://www.tradealgo.com/news/goldman-ups-s-p-500-target-for-the-third-time-says-6-300-is-possible

An easy calculation worth pursuing : The S&P 500 was certainly overvalued in early 2000, less than the NDX, though.

The high was back then at around 1,550 points - I thinks the fair value was 50% below this level, around 780 points.

Now compound with 9% annually, and I'd say we could be around 6,800 points at the end of 2025 .

If you have yet invested in a low cost index fund yet, now is a great time to begin - the S&P 500 is NOT overvalued !
 
Back to a single stock analysis, British American Tobacco (ISIN : GB0002875804) .

The company does face challenges - in the USA, a big market, regulators make life difficult, and acquiring Reynolds in 2017 was, in retrospect, a big mistake, resulting in a big writedown announced in december 2023.
The business in Russia is done and the company had to pay a hefty penalty because it did business with North Korea.

The share price lost 10% after the writedown was announced, gapping, but now the price has closed the gap for a third time ... my impression, it may be upward, Imperial Brands style, for BATS from now on.

The company has announced, in march 2024, a share buyback program lasting until late 2025.

Dividend yield as of now 9.3%

Must-read imho : https://eaglepointcapital.substack....for?r=6gq23&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

I'd be a buyer here, closing price yesterday (06/24/2024) 2,535 pence .

hdcN0aol
 
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