... but is it doable in reality ?

Pair GBPUSD is now approaching 1.24, I'd move the TP to 1.23 and the SL on entry price, so no loss is realized if the trend reverses to uptrend or alternatively, to 1.25 in order to secure a small profit. EDIT : Same with GBP / CAD, would pull the SL to breakeven or slightly below to secure a small profit !
 
Last edited:
system?

the market is a trap......if not which idiot is going to buy high and sell low?

they are forced to.....the shorts are forced to close by buying high and the longs vice versa...

any 'system' that does not take this reality into consideration is only depending upon the uncertain movements of the markets to make money.

you can make money without knowing the direction of the market if you understand risk management.

however if you understand that market are a trap and learn to trade this then the money you make increases hugely.

ultimately you need to increase your risk reward.......it is not about a system or strategy or knowledge about market......if you do not make make than you risk you are always going to be in danger of eventually blowing your account.

any business is always going to be about what you put in and what you get/take out.

how do they trap you......any reversal signal when there is a trend will not work......or it will fail or end up a trap..

meaning that you will get a reversal signal and then most often you will get a confirmation signal- like a bar breaking the low of another bar, in a sell signal,- and then the trap is sprung.....the market reverses up and then everyone is chasing the market up-longs and shorts [who are buying back what they sold]

that is what fuels the trend........

so forget all the bull shit you see in technical analysis books.....

if you can spot this process this trap then you will make huge money.

if this trap is not there then market will chop
 
if you do not understand this trap then the only way is to trade probability......that is why you hear so much about probability and high probability trades.
 
janbillian said:
Knowing that trendfollowing has a low hit ratio,
More...
i do not think so

it depends whether you understand what causes and sustains a trend.

i dare say not many people know that.



if you dont then you only have probability to trade with and so what you say applies.

and why on earth would you restrict your profit to 2 or 3 or even 10 times risk when there is a trend......
as long as trends sustain there is no point in getting out.

unless you have no idea how long it will sustain.....which again comes to the question of whether you know why a trend sustains
 
O.K., my "final final" FX setup I present for this week. I think the pair EURCAD looks like a good short candidate here. It's now trading around 1.5240, I'd initiate a short position with a 40 pips above entry SL, and 160 pips below entry profit target.
adn5MEEk
 
+ (markets will close in a few hours) a long setup for the pair USDCAD (US$ vs canadian Dollar), I would initiate a long position @ now around 1.3589. SL would be placed 60 pips below entry price, Profit target would be as of now 150 pips above entry / fill.
cyNV43ok
 
janbillian said:
Guys and gals, this is one hell of a forum. I reside in Munich, Germany, and have too long not been active in this great forum. Back in 2006, I got a long-term investment idea via pm here - pre IPO "Invest in Mastercard, it is a company that profits from American's endless debt lust", the member wrote me. Didn't invest, obviously would have been a homerun. NYSE symbol is MA.

Now, I admire Tom Basso a lot, he was interviewed by Jack Schwager for vol. II of his market wizards series in 1991, "The new market wizards". I discovered him on FB in 2016, he's on track for his best year as a trader as trendfollowing has so far worked perfectly in stockindexes - COVID19 was so far "mana from heaven" for this trading approach. :thumbsup: If you haven't already checked out Tom's interview with M. Covel, I think it's worth your valuable time, can be found on YouTube !

Some of you are experienced, too, obviously - what your take on what I call a 2:1 setup or 3:0 setup? I use tradingview as my source, took Directional Movement (DMI) without the ADX line, I've colored it white & the Aroon indicator (thus two indicators) below the chart + the EMA34. Directional Movement & Aroon are basically momentum indicators, I take the crossover of the signal lines as a long or short signal, the bar must close above or below the EMA34 and the close should be near the EMA34 (difficult to quantify exactly in ticks or pips) - as the SL will be placed on the EMA34 level and the take profit should be 3 x SL .

Setup for entries ? Long if I have an "above" EMA34 close and one of the indicators has a signal line crossover, positive momentum crosses negative momentum. Vice versa for a short entry.

1NCtrS21


The DAX/GER30, timeframe 3H, the second signal (short entry) would have been a loser, the other two signals been winners. Not a "well chosen" example, just to illustrate the approach. See the dart's direction for the direction of the trade.

I'd be shooting for a 20% annualized return. Too ambitious in the eyes of experienced traders here, thus the thread's title ".... but is it doable" ?

It's basically a bet on momentum taking an underlying to levels beyond your entry, which is what trendfollowing is all about.

Feel free to contact me on Facebook, too, this is my profile there -> https://www.facebook.com/jan.billian
More...
%%
Its not doable for me because i never found one of your indicators useful [or barcharts much help unless IBD uses them];
less is more.
 
When it comes to trading, almost everything can be considered doable. You just need to know more about Forex and get help from the best forex brokers and you’ll be able to do good in any aspect you want, whether it is about earning the profits more than what you have expected.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top