Yes, this I know. I'd not want to risk more than 1%, maybe only .5 % of my equity per trade. Knowing that trendfollowing has a low hit ratio, I'd expect around 60% of my trades to be losers ! But I want 2.5 to 3R trades - that's it. The 40% winners should on average take in 2.5 - 3.0 x my average loss. Important is that the open trades are monitored - if I'm in the green zone, the underlying has gone 1R in my favor, I'd pull up the Stop loss on my entry level. Recent example is FX pair Pound vs US$ (GBPUSD), would have gone long @ around 1.2631 and my SL would now be placed there (initial SL @ 1.2590). Would now be in safe harbor (downward gaps on weekends of course are possible) and my profit target would be 1.2790 . I consider speculating as basically cutting losses when it makes senses, making sure they don't wipe you out, and trying to catch large moves long or short no matter what the underlying. Important is, the swap fees can bite into your P/L when trading currencies and you expect to hold them for > 1 day. https://www.forexchurch.com/forex-broker-swap-rates
... but is it doable in reality ?
- Thread starter janbillian
- Start date
indicators do not show anything that cannot be deduced from the chart it self........but no harm in using them if you find them useful
swap sometimes are they are not advantageous to the p/l?Yes, this I know. I'd not want to risk more than 1%, maybe only .5 % of my equity per trade. Knowing that trendfollowing has a low hit ratio, I'd expect around 60% of my trades to be losers ! But I want 2.5 to 3R trades - that's it. The 40% winners should on average take in 2.5 - 3.0 x my average loss. Important is that the open trades are monitored - if I'm in the green zone, the underlying has gone 1R in my favor, I'd pull up the Stop loss on my entry level. Recent example is FX pair Pound vs US$ (GBPUSD), would have gone long @ around 1.2631 and my SL would now be placed there (initial SL @ 1.2590). Would now be in safe harbor (downward gaps on weekends of course are possible) and my profit target would be 1.2790 . I consider speculating as basically cutting losses when it makes senses, making sure they don't wipe you out, and trying to catch large moves long or short no matter what the underlying. Important is, the swap fees can bite into your P/L when trading currencies and you expect to hold them for > 1 day. https://www.forexchurch.com/forex-broker-swap-rates
Yes, if you know the indicator's logic, one can guess e.g. when the crossover will take place. Of course, in the end we all bet on the future buyer / sellers' behaviour that is unknown.
Speaking of the swap fees when trading currency pairs longer than one day, they can be of advantage aka act as a slight loss "airbag" if the position you take in a certain pair has a positive swap - your account receives a certain credit based on the position size, days held and swap size. But this is, unfortunately, the exception !
Speaking of the swap fees when trading currency pairs longer than one day, they can be of advantage aka act as a slight loss "airbag" if the position you take in a certain pair has a positive swap - your account receives a certain credit based on the position size, days held and swap size. But this is, unfortunately, the exception !
Right now, it's a clear shortsetup in the pair GBP vs USD according to my analysis. Currently trading @ 1.2536, I'd now go short, SL 60 pips above entry, profit target 150 pips below fill.
In the currency pair GBP vs CAD (GBPCAD on tradingview) I'm bearish, too. Would go short here @ 1.6993 with a Stop loss 100 pips above my fill, profit target 300 pips below my fill.
yes it is buyers and sellers behaviour that makes market moves but it is not unknown....it is quite predictable sellers will come in as prices increases and buyer when prices fall.
however making money out of this knowledge is something else
the market moves in certain way
and if you focus on indicators, which you do not understand, how the indicator works, then you will use them wrong.
if you do not understand what screw driver does, you will use it on a bolt and then blame the screw driver.
RSI for instance measures relative strength: it will tell you when the move weakens...but weakening does not mean the move will stop or reverse....it may continue .. but at or in a less strong manner.
all moves gradually weaken and as the move gets weak, you will see moves in both directions...so both the bulls and bears can make money but, it is at this stage, the pigs get slaughtered.
that is all the market does...moves weaken, weaken some more and turn
if you have a 'strategy' and do not understand how the market moves -how moves weaken gradually and how it is a process ,if you do not understand this process, you will always be perplexed at market.
so when do you use a screw driver .....you learn this by not looking at the screwdriver....you learn this by looking at whether there is a screw, a bolt, a rivet, in front of you.
look at the market and understand the tools.
get this process right.. you have to understand both.....blindly using a tool will only end in frustration.
if you do not focus correctly, trading will soon become a living hell.....yes i have been there and all successful traders have been there.
yes i am not telling you how to do it.......do all this......that is not complicated but it is too complicated to post here. and it needs a focus that not everybody can have. that is something that cannot be taught.
and if you focus on indicators, which you do not understand, how the indicator works, then you will use them wrong.
if you do not understand what screw driver does, you will use it on a bolt and then blame the screw driver.
RSI for instance measures relative strength: it will tell you when the move weakens...but weakening does not mean the move will stop or reverse....it may continue .. but at or in a less strong manner.
all moves gradually weaken and as the move gets weak, you will see moves in both directions...so both the bulls and bears can make money but, it is at this stage, the pigs get slaughtered.
that is all the market does...moves weaken, weaken some more and turn
if you have a 'strategy' and do not understand how the market moves -how moves weaken gradually and how it is a process ,if you do not understand this process, you will always be perplexed at market.
so when do you use a screw driver .....you learn this by not looking at the screwdriver....you learn this by looking at whether there is a screw, a bolt, a rivet, in front of you.
look at the market and understand the tools.
get this process right.. you have to understand both.....blindly using a tool will only end in frustration.
if you do not focus correctly, trading will soon become a living hell.....yes i have been there and all successful traders have been there.
yes i am not telling you how to do it.......do all this......that is not complicated but it is too complicated to post here. and it needs a focus that not everybody can have. that is something that cannot be taught.
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padutrader, this is a great forum and like all forum lives by the quality of member's input. Please share your knowledge with all of us, so everyone can and will benefit from it !
My 3rd & last setup for this week, again a short trade in a currency pair, this time EUR vs JPY. I'd be short now at around 119,98 ; place the SL 70 pips above my fill and profittarget 210 pips below.
