Bull Trapping Part II or Sell the Bounce

All I've heard from a few contacts in the trucking business the last 1.5 months is complaints about unprofitable rates and a lack of runs...local/regional/cross-country

it was running fine up until june when they all started losing weight and every time i saw them they had lost a few more pounds... :)

Quote from RichardRimes:

Nice call to you too :p
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Took a week off into the no communication zone. Peeked at the markets and it appears to be doing a repeat of last August where it dribbled to intermediate highs first week then sold off into the end of the month.

Interestingly "Sell the news" was in force as B of E raises and the market gaps down and opens at the low of day as the slow squeeze was on until end of day.
 
Quote from duard:

... last August where it dribbled to intermediate highs first week then sold off into the end of the month.
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Damn, Friday was nearly a key reversal day. However almost is in horseshoes and handgrenades.

Today was a real nowhere day which happens alot pre-FOMC.

So in the mean time the Biggest of trends is up, the big trend is down and now we are neutral in the big and little trends waiting for a cue. But I've been calling for a bear and even if the feds pause on hikes that doesn't mean that you can yell "ALL CLEAR" for the biggest of trends until 2007 IMHO.
 
Quote from duard:

Friday was nearly a key reversal day. However almost is in horseshoes and handgrenades.......

......even if the feds pause on hikes that doesn't mean that you can yell "ALL CLEAR" ...
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Well this is barely a bear. We need a break and run to 1175 in SPOOS by end of year.
 
Today's action certainly threw some cold water on the bulls.

Big gap on Cisco's earnings. Big gaps were running on the way up during the short squeeze countertrend rally and now they're getting sold off. If we break current support levels we'll most likely test June's lows again.
 

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Energy which has been the market leader for 3 plus years could be forming another major top. Rising crude and energy have led the market. The recent softening at least in the near term.. next 6 months should be bearish for the whole market. Rest assured, they will start throwing out the "D" on cnbc again.
 
It's been awhile since the market has paused on its way up but this afternoon the market looked suspiciously as if another intermediate top may be in place.

Earnings have been good and the feds paused but we still haven't had a significant correction for several years now.

A cinderella story of endlessly bullish markets where you just buy the dip forever.

Good Luck
 
I must say I believe a few have been befuddled here as to the recent run so I guess I'm not alone when looking at excerpts from "The Capital Speculator"

August 18, 2006
SUMMER HAZE

In a perfect world, the writing on the economic wall would be clear and concise. But as any student of the dismal science knows, we instead live in an alternative universe where trends are fuzzy, data is suspect, and stuff happens that degrades the value of otherwise reasonable analysis. Welcome, in short, to reality......

.......Back in the real world, however, there's more than a little confusion, but no trader worth his bonus is going to let that get in the way of his day job.

Read the rest here: http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2006/08/summer_haze.html

The market was very oversold and we were ready for a rally. The question going forward is what's next?
 
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