Bull Trapping Part II or Sell the Bounce

[duard]

News that may affect the market.

These could contribute to a drop in an already shaky market.

Hezbollah Rocket Barrage Kills 8 in Haifa

JULY 16, 2006

Lebanese guerillas fired a relentless barrage of rockets into the northern Israeli city of Haifa during morning rush hour Sunday, killing eight people at a train station and wounding seven others in a dramatic escalation of a five-day-old conflict that has shattered Mideast peace.

N.Korea Rejects U.N.'s Limited Sanctions

JULY 16, 2006

North Korea on Sunday rejected a U.N. Security Council resolution sanctioning the communist nation for recent missile tests and warned the measure was a prelude to a renewed Korean War.

 

[duard]

Quote from duard:

Selling and more selling.... we are heading for a test of the 6/14/06 low do we break and if so how far?

Are we there yet?

Wake me up when we're down 20% from peak to trough.

 

[duard]

Well we tested the low of 6/14/06 today and had a healthy bounce. Now the question remains how far up do we travel before we test again and break.

No man's land is our current range. Above or below would be the easier trade for swingage.

 

[duard]

Definition of a bull trap....

See today's chart.

We'll see what lies ahead. You make the call.

 

[duard]

Quote from duard:

Above or below would be the easier trade for swingage.

Well the trade a few days ago above the "range" shelled out big dough. Then the bull trap down threw down some more coin. Now the Sif's played catch up this am with the Transports. With a substantial move out of the way so early it's easy to take the money and the rest of the day off.

Good Luck

 

[duard]

New Bull or just "Bull?"

We shall see.

Spanked tech today. Swing traded equities for a change. Many issues were in the accumulation zone. But honestly this looks a bear market rally.

 

[duard]

Singing "Dueling Programs" to the tune of "Dueling Banjos"


YEEE HAAAA!!!!

 

[stock_trad3r]

As the nasdaq moves higher today more and more shorts are getting burried.

I am very confident this time the bounce we have seen this week will last and there wont be a correction again.

If you went short last week, cover today to minimize the pain becasue there are still 3 more trading days left this week and the nasdaq and dow will probably tack on another 1-3% of gains.

There is no bad news or anyting to make the markets go much lower. JMHO.

Dont sweat over the TA too much. When stocks go down like we have seen in the past 2.5 months you just buy dammit and then when the markets recover you make lots of money.

 

[craneman]

Just a sucker rally as we are in a bear market IMO. Monday's pop did not have the volume behind it. Today was too weak to be considered a follow through day.

 

[duard]

Quote from craneman:

Just a sucker rally as we are in a bear market IMO. Monday's pop did not have the volume behind it. Today was too weak to be considered a follow through day.

Sure seems that way.

A few thoughts:

Predators attack weakness. That is to say the thin side of the market is always at risk of breech. After the second big day up off of an oversold market today we broke up but tentatively. As buyers retreat and the vultures and wolves start circling as soon as enough weakness appears BAMM next leg down. Happens in all timeframes. But I like the weekly and hourly timeframes best. Today the 5 minute chart showed two moves up and 2 down with slight dominance of the buyers over sellers.

If we breakdown given the weekly chart is in a downtrend then the move will quickly gain momentum.

Thanks for your comments, always appreciated.