Buffett's Partner: 'It's Over' for U.S. Economy

Quote from WallStWhizKid:

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner in Berkshire Hathaway, warns in a new column that the U.S. economic empire is crumbling before our eyes, thanks to federal debt and poor planning.

In an article penned for Slate.com, Munger uses the form of a parable to explain how Wall Street’s love affair with gambling has destroyed America’s Main Street.

The article leads with this headline: “Basically, It’s Over.”

The Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman describes the economic history of Basicland, which happens to match U.S. history.

Early in its history, debt is unknown except for home mortgages and some consumer loans, and people live within their means. Speculation is discouraged, and commodities markets are small and tightly regulated.

Under this rational system, economic growth skips merrily along at a steady 3 percent, Munger explains.

Taxes are limited and pay for only “essential services” like fire protection, courts, and defense. Most taxes are collected on imports, and government spending matches that tax income. Debt via government bonds is limited.

Then things take a turn for the worse.

“The extreme prosperity of Basicland had created a peculiar outcome: As their affluence and leisure time grew, Basicland's citizens more and more whiled away their time in the excitement of casino gambling,” Munger writes.

Financial services soon grow to account for too big a portion of the economy, Munger says.

“The winnings of the casinos eventually amounted to 25 percent of Basicland's GDP, while 22 percent of all employee earnings in Basicland were paid to persons employed by the casinos, many of whom were engineers needed elsewhere.”

Then, a shock: Imported energy costs rise, and low-cost labor competition from abroad appears, Munger writes.

“Suddenly Basicland had to come up with 30 percent of its GDP every year, in foreign currency, to pay its creditors,” Munger writes.

The U.S. deficit — just the gap between spending and income in one year — is projected to hit $1.6 trillion in 2010. Total debt is project to exceed 100 percent of GDP starting in 2011.

In the parable, Munger strongly suggests that the United States take seriously the campaign of Reagan-era Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who wants the big banks to cease pretending to be banks if they expect the freedom to trade securities on the side.

“He suggested that Basicland should strongly discourage casino gambling, partly through a complete ban on the trading in financial derivatives, and it should encourage former casino employees — and former casino patrons — to produce and sell items that foreigners were willing to buy,” Munger writes.

As the parable ends, none of the politicians listen, and Basicland turned into “Sorrowland,” Munger concludes.

http://moneynews.com/Headline/munge...t/2010/02/22/id/350529?s=al&promo_code=97C7-1
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America over is an exageration.

However he foresees a double dip recession and he wants to buy stocks cheap again (me too).
 
Quote from Misthos:

Get a fucking job huh?

Obviously you are not aware of the unemployment rate. Your argument may have held water in 1996, but not today.

By the way, many people working today in the private sector are working because the US Gov't gives their companies contracts. The US govt spends more on defense than the next ten largest countries combined. I know people that work in the defense industry - how are they different than welfare recipients?

I'll answer that - they have a job, they dress better, but in the end, they cost the US taxpayer more than welfare and unemployment does.

And where does an 85 yr old get a job to pay for health insurance and substitute social security income? Telling an 80 something yr old to get a fucking job is easy to say when you're still practically a fetus.
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I actually am aware of it.

They are different than welfare recipients because they are doing a service for the government. That is how business works. Did you seriously have to ask the difference between government contracts and welfare recipients? One is doing a service in return, one isn't. Very large difference.

My point was focused towards those who perpetually abuse the system and don't want a job, they want handouts. Social security and welfare is supposed to be temporary, which I think is fine. Too often, it is not. You completely failed to see what I was talking about.

Yes, but those are things taxpayers should be paying for. I don't know who your friends work for, but think about it. Engineers? Roads, bridges, etc, etc, etc. Soldiers? Military supplement, etc. All of these benefit the taxpayer. I fail to see how large Medicare and Medicaid payments benefit me when I have insurance. This would lead us into a whole new debate, but I believe the problem can be solved by allowing for medical savings accounts that can be used to purchase insurance.

When a family friend went to the hospital, they billed the insurance company over $30,000. When the insurance happened to be who the hospital had a deal with, cost $3,000. It's a stupid game that the healthcare companies play that isn't necessary and is excessively, to say the least, expensive.

An 85 year old doesn't have a job to pay for health insurance and substitute social security income. Retiring before you have adequate funds to do so is foolish. Fired because of age? Illegal. Unable to work because the 85 year old got injured? Insurance. Insurance won't pay for it? Social security.

As "cruel" as it sounds, it is not society's job to make sure the 85 year-old spent the last 85 years, wherein he had plenty of time, preparing for his retirement. This is a society that (originally) rewarded success and punished failure. Now, it rewards success and rewards failure. This is exactly the mindset change I was talking about.

Not to mention, if they adjusted SS for the criteria that were originally set, retirement age would be 70-75. I suggest reading this:

http://slate.com/id/2113883/

Edit:

According to the US 2010 Federal Budget: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will cost appx. 65% of the largest section of the budget. These are clearly the most expensive taxpayer programs, costing a total of $1.438 trillion dollars- 40.5% of the total budget alone.

Edit 2: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/ce/Fy2010_spending_by_category.jpg



Please do not tell me that welfare is not the most expensive government program.
 
Quote from 700express:

I actually am aware of it.

They are different than welfare recipients because they are doing a service for the government. That is how business works. Did you seriously have to ask the difference between government contracts and welfare recipients? One is doing a service in return, one isn't. Very large difference.

My point was focused towards those who perpetually abuse the system and don't want a job, they want handouts. Social security and welfare is supposed to be temporary, which I think is fine. Too often, it is not. You completely failed to see what I was talking about.

Yes, but those are things taxpayers should be paying for. I don't know who your friends work for, but think about it. Engineers? Roads, bridges, etc, etc, etc. Soldiers? Military supplement, etc. All of these benefit the taxpayer. I fail to see how large Medicare and Medicaid payments benefit me when I have insurance. This would lead us into a whole new debate, but I believe the problem can be solved by allowing for medical savings accounts that can be used to purchase insurance.

When a family friend went to the hospital, they billed the insurance company over $30,000. When the insurance happened to be who the hospital had a deal with, cost $3,000. It's a stupid game that the healthcare companies play that isn't necessary and is excessively, to say the least, expensive.

An 85 year old doesn't have a job to pay for health insurance and substitute social security income. Retiring before you have adequate funds to do so is foolish. Fired because of age? Illegal. Unable to work because the 85 year old got injured? Insurance. Insurance won't pay for it? Social security.

As "cruel" as it sounds, it is not society's job to make sure the 85 year-old spent the last 85 years, wherein he had plenty of time, preparing for his retirement. This is a society that (originally) rewarded success and punished failure. Now, it rewards success and rewards failure. This is exactly the mindset change I was talking about.

Not to mention, if they adjusted SS for the criteria that were originally set, retirement age would be 70-75. I suggest reading this:

http://slate.com/id/2113883/

Edit:

According to the US 2010 Federal Budget: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will cost appx. 65% of the largest section of the budget. These are clearly the most expensive taxpayer programs, costing a total of $1.438 trillion dollars- 40.5% of the total budget alone.

Edit 2: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/ce/Fy2010_spending_by_category.jpg



Please do not tell me that welfare is not the most expensive government program.
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Not all government programs are necessary. Many are bloated and overcharge the government due to the nature of the contracts. I remember Reagan in the 1980s decrying the cadillac driving welfare queen. What did we replace her with? Defense contractors that charge $300 for a toilet seat and $600 for "special" screwdrivers. And what about banker bailouts and subsequent bonuses? That industry is quickly putting the defense industry to shame.

I agree that welfare and to a degree, entitlements are bloated and have been abused. But I don't think they should be scrapped either. It all depends on what kind of society you want ours to be.

Not everyone is from an upper-middle/wealthy class family like you. I know many decent people that play by the rules, work hard, and live simply. Yet still, they will never be able to afford to retire, and won't be able to work until the day they die either.

Do you prefer they die in the streets if they can't find work? I believe that they should be assisted. Your view is easy to have because you're young and probably come from a family of wealth. You'll go to a decent school, and maybe even find a great job. I too was raised by a father that had - still has - a family business and decent investments. I had your views at your age.

Then I started supporting myself. Don't get me wrong - I've done well - but shit, it's not easy. Or at least, it hasn't been easy for me. Then I also got to meet some very decent people that have to work and budget like crazy just to keep from drowning. My views have changed.

I respect the fact that you follow up on Ron Paul, and that you think about what is going on. Keep it up and good luck. By the way, you're right... your generation got screwed, but I think most in your generation don't know about it yet.
 
Quote from BarneyFrank:

the US government is more than 60% of this countries economy, how does a nonproductive entity like the government fund it's business, by taxing everything and anything it can, but is this enough, hell no, so what do they do, of coarse print money, in america the function of printing money has been given to the FED, they print the USDs and the government borrows from them, the idea is that the government is funded through taxes and the printing of money

all the US government has to worry about is protecting the USD, so long as they can protect it on an international level, they can continue to print and prosper, no wonder some 25% of the USDs printed are spent on protecting it, the idea is you print and use a good portion of it to build a war machine, that way you can shove it down people's throat even when they refuse to offer their products or services in exchange for USDs

all that is changing now, there is a rapid shift in the way the world views this country, and not only they have no intention of supporting it, most are in on a plan to dump the USD and leave the US government fully paralyzed, with a run on the dollar, there is nothing this government, nothing no one can do to save at least 50% of america from suffering real hunger

just last year Obama went on a trip kissing the Arab's ass, hoping they can secure their support for the USD, maybe he was able to gain that support, but what about China, what about Russia, they are big players
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You're right - we can only export our inflation for so long. Eventually the other powers may decide that paying for our military via reserve currency transactions and subsequent treasury purchases may not be such a great idea for them. Actually, it's started already - they are divesting, I believe.
 
Quote from Misthos:

1. Not all government programs are necessary. Many are bloated and overcharge the government due to the nature of the contracts. I remember Reagan in the 1980s decrying the cadillac driving welfare queen. What did we replace her with? Defense contractors that charge $300 for a toilet seat and $600 for "special" screwdrivers. And what about banker bailouts and subsequent bonuses? That industry is quickly putting the defense industry to shame.

2. I agree that welfare and to a degree, entitlements are bloated and have been abused. But I don't think they should be scrapped either. It all depends on what kind of society you want ours to be.

3. Not everyone is from an upper-middle/wealthy class family like you. I know many decent people that play by the rules, work hard, and live simply. Yet still, they will never be able to afford to retire, and won't be able to work until the day they die either.

4. Do you prefer they die in the streets if they can't find work? I believe that they should be assisted. Your view is easy to have because you're young and probably come from a family of wealth. You'll go to a decent school, and maybe even find a great job. I too was raised by a father that had - still has - a family business and decent investments. I had your views at your age.

5. Then I started supporting myself. Don't get me wrong - I've done well - but shit, it's not easy. Or at least, it hasn't been easy for me. Then I also got to meet some very decent people that have to work and budget like crazy just to keep from drowning. My views have changed.

6. I respect the fact that you follow up on Ron Paul, and that you think about what is going on. Keep it up and good luck. By the way, you're right... your generation got screwed, but I think most in your generation don't know about it yet.
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I added numbers to your original post to make it easier to reply.

1. Agreed. It bothers me that nothing is actually being done about this.

2. I agree. I'm not saying we should have a virtual anarchy or anything like that. I just see many programs as unnecessary, excessive, and wasteful. If Americans would be truly willing to work towards better solutions, I believe they are there and can be achieved. This is the point I was trying to make in my first post- most Americans simply seem to want whatever makes life easier for them. They would never vote for a program that cuts their welfare, even if they understood the benefits to the country. What happened to, "ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country?"

3. I understand this, and thankfully the school I attend makes an effort to have a very diverse socioeconomic demographic. I understand the system screws people over. However, social security was meant for people who are no longer able to be productive, and truly cannot work anymore for themselves. To me, this seems to be a good system for the country to reward those who have spent their whole life working under its economy. However, health care programs as they stand today are excessive, wasteful, and unnecessary. This article explains much of this very well: http://slate.com/id/2113883/

4 and 5. No, I just think that if a person can still work, they should work. I understand that it might not always be easy, but there are always ways to make it work. Attending community college, working double, etc. Again, I understand how much time and sacrifice this requires, but, and I know I sound heartless here, but nobody said it was going to be easy. As much shit as my generation gets, it's looking like we may just end up having it the hardest.

6. Thank you and let's hope they realize it soon.
 
Amusing little exchange.

Debating a bushbot is like speaking with a retarded rock.

What is a bushbot you ask?

Think Joe the plumber who hasn't paid taxes, is un-employed with no employable skill sets trying to make himself out to be more successful than the failure he really is.

These are the walking lard buckets who have all types of exotic diseases, have no health coverage and they're all sucking off welfare, medicare and massive farm subsidies yet will subject the rest of us with their illiterate shrieks on how Obama and everyone else is "destroying" America. It escapes their demented minuscule brain that their own jesus-freak president they selected for 2 terms is the primary cause of todays mess.

The Romans had the correct methods for dealing with these freaks. Too bad we've become too civilized to subject them to the treatment they really deserve.
 
Quote from fkbsuhites:

Amusing little exchange.

Debating a bushbot is like speaking with a retarded rock.

What is a bushbot you ask?

Think Joe the plumber who hasn't paid taxes, is un-employed with no employable skill sets trying to make himself out to be more successful than the failure he really is.

These are the walking lard buckets who have all types of exotic diseases, have no health coverage and they're all sucking off welfare, medicare and massive farm subsidies yet will subject the rest of us with their illiterate shrieks on how Obama and everyone else is "destroying" America. It escapes their demented minuscule brain that their own jesus-freak president they selected for 2 terms is the primary cause of todays mess.

The Romans had the correct methods for dealing with these freaks. Too bad we've become too civilized to subject them to the treatment they really deserve.
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Please clarify.
 
The most logical outcome.... Government jobs, social spending and deficits continue to INCREASE until the economic system collapses... then nearly all of us will have NOTHING... (THAT BTW, is Obama's "Fundamentally reforming of America") setting the stage for a Socialist Dictator to come to power and run our lives .


____________________________________________________

Wake up....its all ready in motion. It isn't if but when....so prepare....thats all you can do. Not worry about it. Vote for the right canadate in NOV, switch your job if you can, into sectors that will benefit from the collapse, stop overspending and buying toy's one can't afford, stop trying to be a "trader" on margin, just regroup.

The world is not ending and sometimes you have to tear it down...in order to really start from new....only problem is....a Communist like Obama will start socialism.....while a capitalist would rebuild manaufacturing base.
 
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greenspan-US-recovery-rb-1788218485.html?x=0&.v=3

He also said it was important for U.S. policy makers to prevent perceived expectations of inflation that could push up yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities, which would raise mortgage interest rates and prevent a recovery in the housing market.

The 10-year Treasury yield is the "one statistic that I watch every morning and every afternoon," he said..
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Yea. IOW, lie and manipulate data to fool the public and broader market. Good strategy.
 
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