Buffett's Partner: 'It's Over' for U.S. Economy

America's one party system is broke. If you have not figured out by now that it doesn't matter if a republican or democrat is in office its just a different mask on the same puppet. Clinton, Bush, Obama are all one in the same. I dare you to make a rational argument that America is any different from the Bush era now that Obama is in office. All Obama has done is to follow the status quo. Different name same shit. To keep the masses happy every 4-8 years they dress the pig up as a donkey or an elephant to make you think you had a choice. If we really want change then we need to hold our elected officials at every level accountable. Case and point - the recent confirmation of helicopter Ben. There was a lot of rhetoric about how he handled the crisis. But in the end nobody really made a stink about it and they handed him the keys to continue doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. My dad used to tell me nothing is gonna change until people get sick and tired of being sick and tired. Special interests will continue to dictate our policies until individuals like you and I return our country to a democratic republic made up of we the people.
 
Quote from enochbenjamin:

America's one party system is broke. If you have not figured out by now that it doesn't matter if a republican or democrat is in office its just a different mask on the same puppet. Clinton, Bush, Obama are all one in the same. I dare you to make a rational argument that America is any different from the Bush era now that Obama is in office. All Obama has done is to follow the status quo. Different name same shit. To keep the masses happy every 4-8 years they dress the pig up as a donkey or an elephant to make you think you had a choice. If we really want change then we need to hold our elected officials at every level accountable. Case and point - the recent confirmation of helicopter Ben. There was a lot of rhetoric about how he handled the crisis. But in the end nobody really made a stink about it and they handed him the keys to continue doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. My dad used to tell me nothing is gonna change until people get sick and tired of being sick and tired. Special interests will continue to dictate our policies until individuals like you and I return our country to a democratic republic made up of we the people.
More...

Well said.
 
Quote from enochbenjamin:

America's one party system is broke. If you have not figured out by now that it doesn't matter if a republican or democrat is in office its just a different mask on the same puppet. Clinton, Bush, Obama are all one in the same. I dare you to make a rational argument that America is any different from the Bush era now that Obama is in office. All Obama has done is to follow the status quo. Different name same shit. To keep the masses happy every 4-8 years they dress the pig up as a donkey or an elephant to make you think you had a choice. If we really want change then we need to hold our elected officials at every level accountable. Case and point - the recent confirmation of helicopter Ben. There was a lot of rhetoric about how he handled the crisis. But in the end nobody really made a stink about it and they handed him the keys to continue doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. My dad used to tell me nothing is gonna change until people get sick and tired of being sick and tired. Special interests will continue to dictate our policies until individuals like you and I return our country to a democratic republic made up of we the people.
More...

Right on bud but I would like to add ........we the people with money.

That's the present reality and unlikely to go away anytime soon.
Money is KING in the USA. By the time someone gets elected President he has made so many promises to so many people he can't do much of anything and definately not what he would like to do except coincidentally.
JFK got elected thanks to the Mafia and look what happened to him when he welched on his "obligations"
 
Quote from achilles28:

Well, I think you hit the nail on the head.

Balance the budget and we go headfirst into Depression.

Accumulate endless debt, and soon, foreigners leave Treasuries, and rates explode (deflationary Depression). Or, the FED steps in, monetize and we go down the road of Zimbabwe. That's the Schiff-Rogers bet. I can't see Bernacke actually doing it. Although, I thinks there's even less a chance Bernacke will step-aside and let the bond market tank.

There are only two solutions to avoid a Great Depression (deflationary, or inflationary):

1) Grow out of the debt (post WW2 America)

2) Revolutionary technology on par with electricity, combustion engine, railroad etc - free energy comes to mind.


The other day, I researched the similarities between post WW2 America and present-day, to see if there was reason to hope. I would suggest others do the same.

To recap, post WW2 America grew out of similar debt (~100% of GDP) by virtue of:

1) A huge manufacturing base.
2) Huge foreign demand for US products (Europe and Asia lay in ruin)
3) A balanced Federal Budget
4) High taxes.

Fast forward to present day America.

Jack Taxes? = Depression. Balance the Budget? = Depression. Foreign competition is extremely high. Foreign demand is extremely weak. And America's manufacturing base is now in China.....

Add to that, the Financial, Real Estate and Insurance Sector contributes 25% to GDP. Nearly every group in that sector relies entirely on leverage, ever-increasing asset values and a buoyed economy to remain solvent. 25% of our GDP .. 3.5 Trillion Dollars. A deflationary Depression would cut FIRE by at least half (13% GDP), making Ben all the more likely to go Weimar.

I don't know when America crossed the debt-Rubicon. I've heard 87 tossed around. Either way, we are seriously done. Free energy is possible. I bet the CIA/NSA or DARPA has it. But this is a controlled take-down of Rome.

The most frightening aspect: Europe, Japan, America and Canada are in the same boat. It will be a Global Great Depression.

Some might inflate. Others might deflate. But the Depression will be Global. China is the only lifeboat. They've got the manufacturing base and little debt.

Now, we just watch the sovereign debt contagion sweep across the weaker European territories like the black plague, until it reaches bigger States, and then US Treasury markets. Germany and France are desperate to stem the cracks from becoming a torrent. Either way, it's too late. We're on a collision course. All they can do is push Judgment Day back another few years. If that. I used to think 5 years. Now I think it's around 3, or less.

The best hope for America is a Great Depression today. Unbelievable. Imo, that's why the Pentagon requested 400K troops deployed to "the Homeland". Stave off a wholesale revolt when the "Czars" implement Martial Law, rations, price controls, nationalization of IRA's etc. This is it.
More...
what happens if we all just forgive the debt and start over,even if it was paid, who would get it,the starving masses or ...who? what's the lesser of 2 evils here..i know this is oversimplified..it;s a serious question tho...
 
Debt is a contract. You can not forgive a contract be decree unless we change to a totalitarian system - it would be like seizing private property.

Debt can only be legally forgiven if the creditors agree and forfeit the money they lent out. Which they likely won't.
 
Quote from Misthos:

Exactly. The Deficit hawks don't understand that a) you don't ever need to pay off the debt, you just need to keep it manageable and b) if you balance the budget you will plunge the country into an immediate DEPRESSION. And I would say we would easily exceed the 6% initial launching point/drop in gdp because of the chain reaction of defaults in the public and private sectors. It would be horrific - ATM machines not working, bank runs, etc....

Who wants that?

But here's the problem. Bernanke thinks he can find a middle ground between severe debt deflation and hyperinflation. You can't. There is no middle gorund. Here's why:

To avoid a deflationary collapse/death spiral, you need to print money (monetize) and deficit spend (fiscal stimulus).

BUT...

If you do the two above, eventually you will need to FIRST sop up the excess money that was created by the Fed. This could be done.

But what about the deficit spending - the fiscal stimulus by Congress and the White House? That spending adds to the total national debt, which of course, will add to the annual interest rate payments on that increasing debt. And I'm not even talking about paying down the debt - but just making the interest payments. But here's the problem. If GDP doesn't significantly rise, which would also increase tax revenues, the gov't will be faced with a higher and higher interest payment as a percentage of all tax revenues. Some estimate 35%-50% of all tax revenues within a decade. Then what do you cut? Social Security? Defense? Medicare/aid? Do you further monetize?

The government will not cause a severe depression thru balanced budgets, IMHO. They will deficit spend as long as they can. Ultimately, we will have extreme inflaton. If rates rise, the servicing of the deficit gets even more costly. That's when de facto default occurs. When we need to print just to make the interest payments. That's when it will be obvious that it is all a sham.
More...



How soon people forget... The budget was balanced just around 10 short years ago after almost 20 years of running deficits. Did we go into a depression? No. The opposite happened. The economy took off. The reason this happens is because of efficiency of debt expenditure.

Without the gov't as a prime customer for debt, more lending was done to small businesses, corporations, and individuals. As a wide majority of studies have shown, small businesses and corporations are much more efficient at utilizing debt to grow the economy than the gov't. So, if the budget were balanced and only a fraction of the old 1.6T deficit were lent directly to small businesses and corporations (without trickling through Fed gov't agencies), it would have more positive impact in growing the economy than the full 1.6T deficit.
 
Quote from endsongs:

How soon people forget... The budget was balanced just around 10 short years ago after almost 20 years of running deficits. Did we go into a depression? No. The opposite happened. The economy took off. The reason this happens is because of efficiency of debt expenditure.

Without the gov't as a prime customer for debt, more lending was done to small businesses, corporations, and individuals. As a wide majority of studies have shown, small businesses and corporations are much more efficient at utilizing debt to grow the economy than the gov't. So, if the budget were balanced and only a fraction of the old 1.6T deficit were lent directly to small businesses and corporations (without trickling through Fed gov't agencies), it would have more positive impact in growing the economy than the full 1.6T deficit.
More...

Efficiency of debt expenditure? LOL! The 1990s were a gigantic bubble.

Your gov't prime customer of debt theory only works when the bubble economy is on the upswing. What happens when the private sector debt/money creation collapses as it has? Do you really believe the gov't is hogging up the debt market right now? THERE IS NO PRIVATE DEBT MARKET - IT'S DEAD!!!! IT HAS BEEN NATIONALIZED by commitments and backstops of up to 23 TRILLION DOLLARS!!!

10 yrs ago the private sector was creating wealth - bubble wealth. Also, look into how Clinton "balanced" the budget. You can't compare today with 15 yrs ago.

So you're telling me that if the IF gov't didn't deficit spend 1.6 Trillion, we would be better off? You do realize 1.6 Trillion is a lot of money?
 
Quote from endsongs:

How soon people forget... The budget was balanced just around 10 short years ago after almost 20 years of running deficits. Did we go into a depression? No. The opposite happened. The economy took off. The reason this happens is because of efficiency of debt expenditure.
More...

And the only reason the budget was balanced temporarily was because of the internet bubble. So the economic expansion was built upon multiple bubbles and the people in charge encouraged it. Why stop a good thing, right? I mean even Alan Greenspan said it was impossible to detect bubbles! Well now we are paying the price for such idiotic policies and we will continue to pay the price as a country indefinitely until we realize we need to pay the piper. No politician is ever going to advocate the pain needed to get out of this. So we'll just sit here on our slowly sinking ship and in 10 years this post will probably be just as applicable as it is today.
 
Quote from Misthos:

Efficiency of debt expenditure? LOL! The 1990s were a gigantic bubble.

Your gov't prime customer of debt theory only works when the bubble economy is on the upswing. What happens when the private sector debt/money creation collapses as it has? Do you really believe the gov't is hogging up the debt market right now? THERE IS NO PRIVATE DEBT MARKET - IT'S DEAD!!!! IT HAS BEEN NATIONALIZED by commitments and backstops of up to 23 TRILLION DOLLARS!!!

10 yrs ago the private sector was creating wealth - bubble wealth. Also, look into how Clinton "balanced" the budget. You can't compare today with 15 yrs ago.

So you're telling me that if the IF gov't didn't deficit spend 1.6 Trillion, we would be better off? You do realize 1.6 Trillion is a lot of money?
More...


Yes, America would be better off long term if the budget were balanced now. 150B of the deficit went to pay bankers bonuses. At great portion of the deficit went to states by way of stimulus where it was wasted to keep employees who need to be laid off employed. At least 400B of the deficit is going to unneeded military spending. A recent study showed that at least 250B of defense spending can't even be fully accounted for. I can find other examples but I think you see the point.

Every organism or entity goes through the cycle of birth, emergence, sustainment, decline, and then death. This is true whether the budget is balanced or not. In the decline and death phase, other organisms and entities should take the resources of the dying entity so they can grow. What bailouts and stimulus paid for by debt do is prolong the decline and death phases at the expense of other emerging entities. See Japan for an example of a country where zombie industries are kept on life support by stimulus instead of being allowed to decline.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top