BTC $500k, ETH $42k, ChainLink $1,400

[s0mmi]

There's roughly zero chance that crypto hits $100 trillion, or anywhere near it. That's about equal to the entire world's stock market cap, and ten times the value of all gold ever mined.

A more reasonable high estimate for a major speculative peak would be something like $6T to $10T, or 3x-5x current levels.

Read my previous posts for more info. Crypto market caps are not the same as stock market.

MetCalfes law:

Value of Network = Number of users (Squared)


$100 billion valuation in Crypto does not mean the same as $100 billion valuation in stock market. Crypto market cap is an illusion.

If you add 10x the users in Crypto, you get 100x price increase. It goes parabolic on a linear chart.

 

[s0mmi]

According to the data I'm seeing, less than 10 million addresses have more than 0.01 BTC. Nobody knows how much of that is artificially inflated, since a single person can have an unlimited number of addresses.
https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Even that isn't "adoption", it's almost entirely speculation = looking to sell to the greater fool. Pretty much nobody buys or sells goods/services directly in BTC because it doesn't work well as a currency.


Using your metric, less than 1 million BTC addresses hold amounts that aren't tiny.

Raoul Pal explains a lot, worth a listen. one of the best interviews of recent:

 

[s0mmi]

It's very sophisticated Ponzi scheme but well what isn't Ponzi scheme? Fiat money or stock market? Crypto is the space of redistribution of wealth but well if it works, why not? Take it just a space of competition, beauty contest as Keynes said.

one of the most shocking things i learned in crypto was that the Stock Market, Housing Market, every single market in the world is a 'glorified ponzi scheme'

if everybody comes to sell at once, it goes to zero. if Jeff Bezos sells Amazon at once, it dumps to zero. same as Elon Musk with Tesla.

every single asset, if everyone rushes out.. collapses. the game is all about figuring out who can convince and "meme" people to buying it long term

all that matters is the ratio of new users vs. existing users ..

 

[s0mmi]

You're going to underwrite my losses when BTC hits $20K? If no, then STFU with this absurd shit.

nobody said you had to go all in. if you allocate 5% of your portfolio and you lose it, you've lost -5%

but if Bitcoin is $1.0M by 2030, your 5% turns into 100% gain on your portfolio

are you new to investing ?

 

[destriero]

nobody said you had to go all in. if you allocate 5% of your portfolio and you lose it, you've lost -5%

but if Bitcoin is $1.0M by 2030, your 5% turns into 100% gain on your portfolio

are you new to investing ?

Yeah, incel. I've been here a week.

 

[s0mmi]

I put 10% of my pretax split evenly into BTC and ETH each month, but I despise these hyperbolic piker threads.

do you know what the Ethereum ICO price was?

it was 31.5c

ethereum today is up 11,428x in just 5.5yrs .. but now Im saying it can go another 11x and you've lost your mind

 

[s0mmi]

If BTC hits $500K the US has become Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe, but not bc of $500K BTC. Ppl need to stop thinking of it as an FX cross.

When Bitcoin hits $500k it gets the same market cap as Gold

Gold = Analog store of value (good to hold across time, but cant send through space across continents)

Bitcoin = Digital store of value (good to hold across both time & space. can send to anyone, anywhere, in 10minutes. near zero cost compared to Gold shipments)

it doesnt mean there is hyperinflation anywhere, it just means the world prefers allocating some fiat currency to Bitcoin for long-term store of value


at Bitcoin "hyperinflation" levels we will probably be in the realms of $5M to $10M+

 

[s0mmi]

For me, it's not about the impact on USD, it's about what the Government wants people to do with their money.

Spend it
Save it in a bank
Invest in stocks, bonds, property
Stuff dollar bills under the mattress
Buy gold
Buy crypto

BTC going from $47k ($0.75tn) to $1m ($16tn) would mean an awful lot of money going where the Government doesn't want it to go.

It is Game Theory playing out

sure, a few governments will not want the money to go there, but the smart 2nd world and 3rd world countries will buy into Bitcoin themselves and put it on their treasury (they probably already are, secretly, not to alert anyone)

at this point, its like the internet. all governments HATED the internet at the start, they dont want their dirty secrets to be aired to the world. but if you reject the internet you are North Korea and left behind in the dark ages

those who embrace it first, are going to win. those who are too late to the party will have a deep price to pay

 

[s0mmi]

I wonder how many remember that Bitcoin was powerful even when it was seen as an illegal thing, and mostly traded in anonymous exchanges like btc-e, or overpriced p2p sites like localbitcoin.


During those times as a clandestine, it went from nothing to 600$ a piece.

Today, it's taxed, it has derivatives and you can find it in many serious investor's portfolio.

If one government will shut it down, another one will welcome it with open arms.

I am all in favour of crypto and long.

My only fear, as I fear governments like the plague, is if the biggest whale, was some country like China or Russia, and used it a destabilising weapon against plenty of western investor by removing the rug under our feet during the perfect storm.

Max Keiser has this theory as you suggested; where China & Russia are accumulating Gold + Bitcoin , because they plan to destabilise the U.S. Dollar

Im not sure if they will do it , they both love power & control themselves

it is an interesting game playing out. one thing is for sure , Bitcoin keeps pumping and if you have no exposure Long, then you are missing out and join Bond holders in becoming the biggest losers of the decade

 

[s0mmi]

In the grand scheme of things, El Salvador is irrelevant. It's just a tiny poor country in Central America.

Trillions, really? BTC is by far the biggest, and that's only 0.75 trillion.

I get it. You want BTC to go to the moon. I'm just saying Uncle Sam might have other ideas.

3 years ago, Bitcoin was called a massive Scam . people said it would never go above $20k again. i came very late to the game, Q4 of 2018. JP Morgan called it a scam, governments called it a scam, everyone declared it dead.

and now 950 days onwards; a Country has adopted it as legal tender, Elon Musk put $1 billion into it, and its growing exponentially in users even today