BREXIT

[conduit]

That is exactly the problem. Most nations in Europe have moved on from history. But the WWII issues and anger and resentment especially towards Germany seems to really have left a mark on the British soul. No other nation in all of Europe almost worships its war dead and veterans as much as the UK. It is part unforgiven German aggression, part loss of pride to not play in the tier 1 team anymore, and part historical dislike for "big government". All of which are understandable. But still a country that has thrown the rest of the countries around itself into confusion and turmoil does have a responsibility to now move on and work out the decision it has freely granted to its citizens.

PEACE please

I am from the US but spent a lot of time in the UK when I worked for a US company that had a large UK/Europe operation.

At that time the UK operation was 'in charge' of the multiple European operations and the Europeans were in revolt. They wanted 'freedom from UK domination'. They actually said that. They sent letters to the chairman that upset him. He sent me to Europe to get things under control.

Lotsa luck.

One of the things I did when I was there was to spend a few evenings in a British pub listening to the locals excoriate the Europeans. Amazing.

As I said before, a lot of the anger seemed almost genetic.

All of this business including the formation of the EU, British membership, now with British withdrawal can be seen as an attempt to forge a post WWII union that would be beneficial to all.

A lot of people have been narrow minded and have not understood the goal. I hope that eventually the goal will be reached.

So please. Do not 'get personal', put each other on Ignore etc. You all have valuable viewpoints to share from which we can all benefit.

 

[Martinghoul]

Could it be that you actually hold a certain motivation? You may dislike the European experiment as a whole and you are entitled to such opinion. But I think after the UK has held Europe hostage for so long and after European leaders have made clear to Cameron that there was not more to get in his attempt to gain more concessions, and after the UK has made very clear that the referendum is binding it very much matters that the UK now swiftly moves forward to implement the decision that was made. And it does beg the question of the real rational behind this standstill on the UK's side. Everyone is nervous, this move has far reaching consequences even regarding national security and whether the UK stands read to defend Europe's borders on Europe's own grounds rather than Nato's. The UK claims it is still a full member of the European Union. Would that equally apply if Russia tomorrow invaded a European Member state? Would the UK stand read to participate with own resources? Those are pressing and incredibly important questions that need to be urgently addressed.

I am of course ironic but it begs the question whether the Euro 2016 cups plays a part here or similarly completely self-serving reasons. So, I repeat what keeps the UK from acting now? It more and more appears as if the UK took a bold stance and now the morning-after causes a lot of headaches and regrets. Still the guest has to vacate the hotel room by noon.

Undoubtedly, I have my motives.

Since when has the EU and not NATO been the primary guarantor of security in Europe? The EU's Common Security and Defense Policy, unlike NATO, includes no mutual defense clauses, as far as I am aware. More generally, in all aspects, including defence, UK remains bound by all the applicable the EU treaties until Article 50 is triggered. I am not really sure what's so uncertain about this.

Like I said, what keeps the UK from acting now is irrelevant. What is relevant is that there is no reason whatsoever for any hurry.

And perhaps the reason European architects did not plan in detail for such event was because there was an implicit understanding that nations understand the decisions they made decades ago and that it was utter nonsense to subject such important decision to a referendum where liars and those who falsify truth are allowed to brain wash the gullible. By broad agreement in the UK the issue centered around immigration and the rest was mostly emotional rather than factual. Why then has the UK never really come up with much better solutions and suggestions. After all, to stick with facts, has the UK never even accepted immigrants or refuges in large numbers. The numbers paled in comparison even to the number refugees way smaller nations in Europe accepted. So many emotions in play and so little facts on the table.

Ah, but of course, how could I forget? The "great unwashed" shouldn't ever be allowed to vote, as they're gullible, easily manipulated etc etc. They need their benign father figures to tell them what's best for them, since, otherwise, their little minds can't grasp all the relevant issues, right?

As to broad agreement, I am really not aware of any such. The issue, at least for me, was never about immigration. Furthermore, most exit polls suggest that sovereignty, rather than immigration, was the #1 issue for the "Leave" voters. But of course, what do these benighted people know? They're all closet xenophobes, bigots and racist, anyway.

 

[benwm]

It is part unforgiven German aggression, part loss of pride to not play in the tier 1 team anymore, and part historical dislike for "big government".

Yeah, that's it, hit the nail on the head. Wow, you have a really amazing grasp of the facts. What a great mind you have, picking up on the nuances of the debate as opposed to the sledgehammer approach favoured by Martinghoul and I.

 

[conduit]

which goals have not been planned out and properly implemented?

* Longest peace time in hundreds of years of European history
* Breaking up of former monopolies in the telecom, gas, oil, water, electricity sectors resulting in lower prices and more competition
* A very power anti-monopoly watchdog
* Strong negotiation power in world trade
* Clear and transparent and consistent product labeling
* Improved food safety standards
* Freedom of movement within the EZ
* Freedom of residence and work within the EZ
* Unified financial market directives and regulation
* Support for countries and their living standards that previously struggled (billions of Euros of transfer payments to push up living standards for those who lived in near third world countries; most of the former Eastern Block countries literally had to walk with gummy boots along the main streets each Autumn because of knee deep mud and lack of proper infrastructure)
* The democratization of all former Russian annexations

You seem to clearly have misunderstood the bigger goals of the European Union most of which have been properly implemented. Nothing is perfect and there is big need for change, no question. But all the original goals have been reached and we have to now sit down and think how to re-tool Europe, with or without the UK actually does not matter.

Everybody understands the goal. The problem is that just having noble goals isn't sufficient. A poorly thought out plan to reach that goal can set one back, rather than move one forward.

 

[conduit]

sell the pound. Very simple. Its guaranteed to trade down at least into the high 20 range.

I have to make this about options or we'll be moved.
I hate when they do that.

How about my SPY trade? (SPY thread)
How about an option trade on the British ETF?

Lets make some money from all this wisdom so I can afford a trip to Paris in the fall.

 

[benwm]

The issue, at least for me, was never about immigration. Furthermore, most exit polls suggest that sovereignty, rather than immigration, was the #1 issue for the "Leave" voters. But of course, what do these benighted people know? They're all closet xenophobes, bigots and racist, anyway.

+1

 

[Martinghoul]

Ah, your arguments get more and more confusing. So you want the leaders domestically to resign promptly but you have no qualms about the UK standing pat and holding the rest of Europe and the world hostage. Confused...

Erm, you're aware that we're talking about a country vs an individual here, right? Individuals should never hesitate to take responsibility for their specific failures. David Cameron offers a good example.

 

[oldnemesis]

SELL THE POUND

I can get behind that.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lates...d-continue-drop-vote-071455123--finance.html#

 

[Low Salubrity Thug]

People who are demanding an immediate exit by the UK can take their demands and stick 'em where the sun don't shine.

There is nothing in the Lisbon treaty which mandates the time period for the official invocation of the Article 50. Until the moment that the UK government decides to trigger the process, nothing changes and the UK remains a member of the EU. While I don't want to diminish the struggles that the UK will now face, one sure shouldn't listen to idiots like Alain Juppé, who seemingly just don't get what's going on around them.

Emotions are running high everywhere. Many people in positions of power are behaving like children.

I don't see any point in grinding the rumour mill so I will comment on what I know to be fact, based on conversations I've had with those who ride the Westminster merry-go-round.

The Brexit camp have no plan. None. This was known in political circles long before the vote. They never expected to win. Heading the Leave campaign in this referendum was a profile raising execise for Boris; it was supposed to introduce him to the general population outside London, garner backing from grassroot euroskeptic Tories, and prepare him to challenge for the Tory leadership just prior to the 2020 election.

Did anyone wonder why he didn't appear on TV until 11am on Friday morning? 11am! The country was crying out for him to appear and fill the void left after Cameron resigned, and it took him until 11am. This probably doesn't mean much to those who don't know how Westminster works, but that void was a political eternity and caused panic. The reason? It made it absolutely plain that he didn't have a game plan.

Boris is actually my MP and I spoke with him prior to the 2015 election. I also met him a few times whilst he was mayor of London. You want to know the truth? Boris never wanted to leave the EU. It was well known in Tory circles that Boris was pro EU, right up until he saw an opportunity to further his career by leading the Leave campaign. When Cameron said last month that Boris had 'never been a leaver' he wasn't lying. Those guys have known each other for decades since they were at Oxford University together. British readers will be familiar with this picture from 1987, but perhaps others aren't aware of just how close these two men used to be.

Not sure if this video will be viewable outside the UK but, knowing this, listen to Boris' speech from Friday. You see there a man who never expected to be in this position shitting proverbial bricks.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boris-johnsons-brexit-speech-full-8272948

He's a man whose only front bench experience was short stints as Shadow Minister for the Arts and Shadow Minister for Higher Education. These are very minor roles. He has no real experience on the international stage (apart from PR stunts as London mayor). And he is now in a position where he will be expected to handle the biggest political trauma on the European continent in decades. He is a man out of his depth who knows he must start to unwind Britain's position.

Look at the language he used in his column in the Telegraph yesterday:

- “still have access to the single market”

- “I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be.”

- “EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU."

- “British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market."

Read between the lines in what Boris is saying. He's very likely to be the next Prime Minister and he's preparing the nation already for the fact that Britain's withdrawal from the EU will be in name only. We will exit, but most the existing structures will remain in place.

The politicians on the continent are talking the hard line, because they have to discourage any repeat of this referendum in other countries. They have to be seen to punish Britain. However, after the initial outrage from Juncker and his supporters, the tone from European politicians is starting to soften already.

Merkel has said regarding the government invoking Article 50: “if the [UK] government needs a reasonable amount of time to do that, we respect that.” and that there is "no need to be particularly nasty in any way in the negotiations".

Lubomir Zaoralek, the Czech foreign minister, has come out this morning and blamed Juncker for the result of the referendum: "In my opinion, he [Juncker] is not the right person for that position. We have to ask who is responsible for the result of the referendum in Britain"

The pieces are already being put in place for sacrificial lambs to be slaughtered, and the changes to be made to the EU which will allow Britain to 'leave' whilst at the same time keeping the pieces vital to the economic survival of Britain and the EU in place.

I'll leave you to join the dots as to what's happening behind closed doors...and it involves a hell of a lot of backtracking on the British side. British officials in Brussels will be sitting down with their European counterparts. These will be people who know each other well, have probably dined together on many occasions. Whilst informal talks have been ruled out by the respective governments, these people will be discussing 'the options'.

 

[benwm]

SELL THE POUND

I can get behind that.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lates...d-continue-drop-vote-071455123--finance.html#

This part was interesting:-

"EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wrote in an internal memo circulated to the executive's staff that according to regulations, they are "union officials" and work for Europe.

He wrote: "You left your national 'hats' at the door when you joined this institution and that door is not closing on you now."

The memo was distributed to Commission personnel after the results of Thursday's British referendum on EU membership became known. It was obtained by The Associated Press on Monday."