Brexit

Brexit

  • Stay in EU

    Votes: 14 26.4%

  • Leave EU

    Votes: 39 73.6%
  • Total voters
    53
Latest polling.
brexitjune6.jpg
 
Seems like the whole world is forming free trade zones and I don't understand why that cannot be done if UK leaves. OK, I get it, we should argue it is better for Canada to join the US as the 52nd state.

Of course I am kidding
 
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Trump is visiting the UK the day after the EU referendum result. If the UK votes to leave the EU, is there any possibility that he dangles the carrot of a US-UK trade deal on the table? He'll want to differentiate himself from Obama who said an EU out vote would result in the UK being at the back of the queue for trade deals with the US.

An EU out vote would also lead to the possibility of Boris Johnson replacing Cameron as PM, someone who Trump would likely feel more comfortable dealing with given Trump's stance on immigration, etc.
 
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The following is a summary of an interesting paper by Iain Mansfield called "A Blueprint for Britain: Openness not Isolation", which makes a case for how the UK should proceed in the event of Brexit.
Source: http://www.iea.org.uk/in-the-media/press-release/iain-mansfield-named-winner-of-€100000-iea-brexit-prize

The paper argues that the single highest economic priority in the event of a ‘no’ vote would be to ensure the maintenance of zero tariffs on trade between the UK and the EU in all areas apart from agriculture. It also strongly makes the case for the importance of an exit from the Single Market. Staying in would mean retaining almost all of the most onerous and controversial aspects of EU membership.

To compensate for reduced access to the Single Market, a post-EU UK should:
  • Negotiate membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), though remaining outside the European Economic Area. The precise degree of closeness should be somewhere between the positions of Switzerland and Turkey.
  • Pursue free trade agreements with major trading nations such as China and the USA.
  • Deepen its engagement with organisations such as the G8, G20 and OECD.
  • Cultivate bilateral strategic relationships with traditional allies such as Australia, Canada and France.
  • Forge new relationships with emerging powers in Asia and Latin America.
  • Establish a formal ‘EU out-group’ of European countries outside the EU but with close trading arrangements, to allow these countries to speak with a stronger voice in discussions with the EU.
Key recommendations:
  • Regulation. A tailored approach to regulation would undoubtedly produce better results than the one-size-fits-all approach necessitated by EU membership.
  • Specific regulations to repeal due to their damage to the UK economy include: The Working Time Directive, several agricultural regulations such as EU bans on pesticides, binding renewable energy targets, and health and safety laws imposed on businesses and SMEs operating purely domestically. All of these push up costs for both UK businesses and consumers.
  • Judicial. The government should establish and resource a cross-party commission to reassert the supremacy of UK law and British courts.
  • Inward Investment. The government, by engaging business organisations, should conduct a strong and sustained outwards campaign to communicate the reality of terms of exit. Measures such as tax breaks and supply-side incentives should also be introduced to help preserve the UK’s position as the number one inward investment destination in Europe.
  • Economic incentives include: A reduction in the rate of corporation tax to 15% over 5 years; the creation of special economic zones in poorer regions of the UK with incentives for investors such as National Insurance holidays and tax breaks; and a rise in the Research and Development tax credit for new investors by 25% over the standard rates for two years to encourage investment and job creation.
  • Reducing the deficit. As a net contributor to the EU, after reallocating funds the UK would enjoy a £10bn surplus. This should be used to pay down the deficit, but some must be spent on increasing the UK’s administrative capacity in areas that have previously been the competence of the EU.
Full paper here:
http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/files/Brexit Entry 170_final_bio_web.pdf
 
Watched all three television "debates" this week on UK mainstream television between the respective Remain and Leave campaigns. The first two debates earlier in the week were quite even, with PM Cameron doing a reasonable job of defending the Remain side argument. However, last night's discussion was a clear victory for the Leave side, in my opinion. They pretty much crushed all of the arguments for the UK staying in the EU.

Of course, ask someone else and they'll give a different perspective, but that was my interpretation. Will be an interesting couple of weeks as the two sides ramp up the arguments and personal attacks.
 
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benwm said:
Watched all three television "debates" this week on UK mainstream television between the respective Remain and Leave campaigns. The first two debates earlier in the week were quite even, with PM Cameron doing a reasonable job of defending the Remain side argument. However, last night's discussion was a clear victory for the Leave side, in my opinion. They pretty much crushed all of the arguments for the UK staying in the EU.

Of course, ask someone else and they'll give a different perspective, but that was my interpretation. Will be an interesting couple of weeks as the two sides ramp up the arguments and personal attacks.
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Thanks for input. I looked over a bunch of online twitter polls after the debates and many are 70%+ for leave .
 
Zr1Trader said:
Thanks for input. I looked over a bunch of online twitter polls after the debates and many are 70%+ for leave .
More...

I was surprised how weak the Remain side arguments were last night, which eventually morphed into a series of fruitless personal attacks on Boris Johnson as the show progressed. It was water off the back of Boris Johnson, he was impressive, as were the two other members of the Leave side debate team.

Gun to the head, I think a Leave result is more likely now, whereas I thought the opposite before the debate. Bookies are still siding with the Remain side, but I think they've got it wrong. I guess there'll be a few more twists and turns, and expect more foreign political leaders to threaten brexiteers over next couple of weeks...something which I suspect will have the opposite effect to what they're intending. Carrot would work better than stick in this situation, but I don't think the EU really took the UK exit possibility seriously before when the polls were favouring the Remain side. It might be too late for them now.

Donald Trump could really shake things up if he offered the UK an immediate trade deal if they left the EU. That would be amusing, and would really p**s off Hilary and the EU, where's he's not very popular, to say the least. The EU (and many so called experts with vested interests) want to peddle the idea that the UK won't survive outside the EU, even though Switzerland and Norway seem to manage fine. A curious fact is that the Isle of Man is already outside of the EU, despite being part of the British Isles.o_O

If the UK votes to leave I have no doubt that others will follow, possibly starting with Netherlands or Greece. Doubt the EU is flexible enough to offer the UK a carrot to stay in at this late stage...if they did, I think they could still persuade UK voters to stay, since the result is possibly still in the hands of the "undecided" voters.

But in my opinion, momentum is really with the Leave side now.
 
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