Brexit

[Martinghoul]

Are you taking a position for this vote in either EURUSD GBPUSD or EURGBP?

I am taking a few shots short into it expecting at least a 20% haircut on GBPUSD.

I believe polls and the market are always wrong as well. People say everything already priced into GBP, I beg to differ. If this does happen I believe there will be huge shocks to certain areas in global finance.

How are you playing this if you don't mind? Sounds like you are in the remain camp. You long GBPUSD?

Polls aside, I've talked with a lot of folks and observed many conversations on twitter that seem to overwhelmingly favor brexit. I'm going with my observations.

If I'm wrong and there is no brexit, I expect GBPUSD to rally pretty hard.

TBH, I find Brexit difficult to deal with. There are lots of unknowns and the most onerous ones have to do with the mkt's reaction to the event. In cable, for instance, there's so much that's been priced in and the vols have moved so much (for instance, the 1m-3m vol spread in cable is trading at an unprecedented 5+ vols). Furthermore, taking a position in any of these pairs now will expose you to volatility that has nothing to do with Brexit.

So for the moment, until I find a sexy expression that I am happy with, I do nothing.

 

[Humpy]

Neither option looks much good really. It would be a huge upheaval to leave. The lawyers are voting to leave when they spy the juicy mess leaving would make. I remember the days before 1975 joining. There were major industrial problems. Would we go back to that again ? I hope not. So we are stuck with euro-bureaucracy and inefficiency.

 

[Zr1Trader]

Bill Clinton Joins forces in campaign against Brexit

The final nail in the coffin. jk

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...n-forces-in-campaign-against-brexit-2s96qpb60

 

[Zr1Trader]

"EU nations face large fines for refusing refugees under new proposal"

European Union (EU) countries who refuse to take in their allocation of migrants may face fines of up to 250,000 Euros ($287,304) per refugee.

This is a big reason Brexit camp wants out.


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/eu-n...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[Xela]

This is a big reason Brexit camp wants out.

Uuuuuh ... not so much, I think.

Most people in the Brexit camp will be either unaware of this or at least pretty uninterested by it. Most Brexiters have been Brexiters for years (or decades, in many cases), and their reasons remain constant, regardless of the recent refugee crisis. True, some of those concerns may be loosely immigration-related, for some people, but there are also plenty of pro-immigration Brexiters whose primary concerns relate to sovereignty, democracy, judicial legislation and freedom from bureaucratic/eurocratic interventionism.

 

[Zr1Trader]

Uuuuuh ... not so much, I think.

Most people in the Brexit camp will be either unaware of this or at least pretty uninterested by it. Most Brexiters have been Brexiters for years (or decades, in many cases), and their reasons remain constant, regardless of the recent refugee crisis. True, some of those concerns may be loosely immigration-related, for some people, but there are also plenty of pro-immigration Brexiters whose primary concerns relate to sovereignty, democracy, judicial legislation and freedom from bureaucratic/eurocratic interventionism.

"These 6 charts show how immigration will make or break Brexit"


"The number one issue dominating the outcome is immigration. "

http://www.businessinsider.com/barc...ts-and-importance-for-brexit-2016-1?r=UK&IR=T

 

[Xela]

"The number one issue dominating the outcome is immigration. "

That's some media's view, certainly. I think it's somewhat misguided, myself. Most Brexiters I know myself, here, wouldn't agree at all. The issues for them are the ones I referred to above. (There are also many Brexiters who are themselves immigrants.)

 

[Zr1Trader]

That's some media's view, certainly. I think it's somewhat misguided, myself. Most Brexiters I know myself, here, wouldn't agree at all. The issues for them are the ones I referred to above. (There are also many Brexiters who are themselves immigrants.)

The charts were from Barclays research for reference.


Thank you for your sharing your view and experiences on the ground as well.

 

[i am nobody]

I live in Europe and travel all the time between 3 European countries. In all three of them immigration is a big issue. Also dictatorship of the European Parlement is a big issue.
If the UK is smart they leave Europe. The 2 wealthiest countries in Europe are Norway and Switzerland. They both are NOT member of the European Union. So the argument that membership will bring prosperty and more economical growth is bullshit. If not Norway and Switzerland would be economical graveyards.
The European Union was mainly created to dump old politicians that did not get elected anymore and give them a very fat salary and other benefits.

 

[Xela]

the argument that membership will bring prosperty and more economical growth is bullshit.

I agree.

If not Norway and Switzerland would be economical graveyards.

I don't agree with the logic, here. It could easily be possible that Norway and Switzerland are both prosperous and successful for other reasons (oil/gas in one case, and a long history of financial services in the other) that pre-date the formation of the EU. I agree with both your factual premises, but you've shown no evidence of a causal connection between them. Even totally valid conclusions can have counterexamples, too (even steadily successful traders don't win every trade?).

The European Union was mainly created to dump old politicians that did not get elected anymore and give them a very fat salary and other benefits.

I don't think that's why it was created at all. That's part of what it sadly became long after it was originally created for entirely laudable reasons as a "European Economic Community". The British voted to be a part of that, in the 1970's, but never to join what it's now become. Hence, many people see its subversion, rather than its original creation, as the problem.