Breaking news: Niederhoffer still in business after market correction!
- Thread starter just21
- Start date
Quote from OddTrader:
Now I understand that none of us should openly discuss or comment any public figures, particularly the President.
Hey, you're entitled to discuss who you want. And I'm entitled to point out that bashing the greats tends to be an activity indulged in by LOSERS.
Let's see those predictions and track records roll in...
wow 3 posts and already so sharp!
ok i'll be nice 2 u because it's not difficult to see where you belong matey: market calls (predictions) are made for suckers, and that may include the 'predictor' himself if he actually believes in his own delusions... which seems to be the case of your idol but thats not even the point
ok i'll be nice 2 u because it's not difficult to see where you belong matey: market calls (predictions) are made for suckers, and that may include the 'predictor' himself if he actually believes in his own delusions... which seems to be the case of your idol but thats not even the point
Another First Poster ... hmmm
Well, you are 'again' missing the point man.
The whole argument here has been around the fact that he (you) tried to manipulate his (your) own image (as seen by himself only) of market savvy by fiddling endlessly with a very public market call gone the wrong way.
VN is a very analytical guy. He preaches counting above all. He bashes the suits for what they are. And yet, completely out of character, he commits two sins in a row, firstly he makes a bold market prediction with 100% certainty, no room for error. When it goes wrong, he then joins the scammers and loosers camp and tries to fudge the past. WOW. His ego is greater than himself, but unfortunately he transformed a very popular and respectable web place for informed minds into a cheap web log/scratch paper. What a shame!
I would have loved to see a follow up article discussing the perils of misapplied statistics or something like it. A simple admission of error and move on attitude would have shown a great trader's mind.
Unfortunately, some people cannot do that and let their emotions rule the moment. Then, when history cannot be changed for real the huge blow outs follow. Oh dear, I think I've might seen that happen before.
Anyway, leave predictions for Vegas and loosers, here we should be dealing with expectancy values instead.
Happy trading.
Well, you are 'again' missing the point man.
The whole argument here has been around the fact that he (you) tried to manipulate his (your) own image (as seen by himself only) of market savvy by fiddling endlessly with a very public market call gone the wrong way.
VN is a very analytical guy. He preaches counting above all. He bashes the suits for what they are. And yet, completely out of character, he commits two sins in a row, firstly he makes a bold market prediction with 100% certainty, no room for error. When it goes wrong, he then joins the scammers and loosers camp and tries to fudge the past. WOW. His ego is greater than himself, but unfortunately he transformed a very popular and respectable web place for informed minds into a cheap web log/scratch paper. What a shame!
I would have loved to see a follow up article discussing the perils of misapplied statistics or something like it. A simple admission of error and move on attitude would have shown a great trader's mind.
Unfortunately, some people cannot do that and let their emotions rule the moment. Then, when history cannot be changed for real the huge blow outs follow. Oh dear, I think I've might seen that happen before.
Anyway, leave predictions for Vegas and loosers, here we should be dealing with expectancy values instead.
Happy trading.
I'm just curious about my theory, that it's LOSERS who are bashing Niederhoffer because they're JEALOUS. But for this we'd need to see the trading results of his detractors. Care to be the first?
Predictions for suckers?
How, pray, do you intend to make money in markets if you don't have some idea of where a market is going, and the odds of it going there? That is what a prediction is. Now one may choose to make them using experience, science, gut, whatever. But without some kind of edge you're going to lose.
So let me see now:
a) You're bashing a great.
b) You don't believe in predictions.
c) You don't want us to know your track record.
a+b+c = loser!
Back to Vic's methods...that is if you guys can stop cocking your legs on each other for a bit.
Why in the hell is Vic down 28% when the SP was down 3%? His latest interview mentioned that they were short term trading - 1 to 5 days. Could this be true? I always thought he was primarily a put seller as his performance in Matador was consistent with that modus operandi. However, past drops were somewhat explainable by the holding (short) of a cheap option that suddenly got expensive in the expiring week. In April 05, the 1165P was $1 with 4 days to go. It settled at $22. Vic was down about 15% for the month, rolled out and got it all back the next month... so I guess he was holding some 1165P's or the like.
Matador's description mentions a futures component, which could serve to smooth things, or not. It just seems like after all the guy has been through, that he would have honed his methods to the point where an underperformance of this magnitude would not be plausible.
You can run 30- 40% a year without a really significant underperformance, several firms do it while primarily shorting gamma.
Why in the hell is Vic down 28% when the SP was down 3%? His latest interview mentioned that they were short term trading - 1 to 5 days. Could this be true? I always thought he was primarily a put seller as his performance in Matador was consistent with that modus operandi. However, past drops were somewhat explainable by the holding (short) of a cheap option that suddenly got expensive in the expiring week. In April 05, the 1165P was $1 with 4 days to go. It settled at $22. Vic was down about 15% for the month, rolled out and got it all back the next month... so I guess he was holding some 1165P's or the like.
Matador's description mentions a futures component, which could serve to smooth things, or not. It just seems like after all the guy has been through, that he would have honed his methods to the point where an underperformance of this magnitude would not be plausible.
You can run 30- 40% a year without a really significant underperformance, several firms do it while primarily shorting gamma.
ktm,
Your post highights why I always tell people & potential invetsors...forget abut the track record..yeah I said it..forget about the track record. Instead:
1. Focus on understanding the trader's strategy AND
2. Be sure you have full confidence in the trader's integrity, otherwise no. 1 above becomes moot.
Your post highights why I always tell people & potential invetsors...forget abut the track record..yeah I said it..forget about the track record. Instead:
1. Focus on understanding the trader's strategy AND
2. Be sure you have full confidence in the trader's integrity, otherwise no. 1 above becomes moot.
so this is your whole complaint? that the wording on his site was changed slightly? (most likely by counsel, since anyone who manages money has to be careful.. but i'm sure you understand having to deal with counsel all day long, you're a big time fund manager, right?). the meaning is clear in both passages.
this is the best critique you can come up with?
again, since you didn't reply before: what's your site's url? what kind of content do you offer free to to public?