Brazil stocks

m22au said:
No, shorting SID at $1.447 was a good idea, and it was also a good idea to short the stock at Friday's close of $0.97. It's down over 10% since then to $0.87.

Maybe it's possible that some traders have different timeframes, risk/return profiles and strategies to you.

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Because it is "virtual", you imagine you can handle a 60% decrease of your position before a +70%. Well, try to short now SID with real money, and see if you are enough strong.
Or maybe just be patient, and short after a pullback (whatever your timeframe).

CM
 
Chris Mac said:
Because it is "virtual", you imagine you can handle a 60% decrease of your position before a +70%. Well, try to short now SID with real money, and see if you are enough strong.
Or maybe just be patient, and short after a pullback (whatever your timeframe).

CM
More...

Incorrect. I know I can handle a 60% decrease in a position because I've done it before with other stocks.

As for "just be patient" - it's entirely possible that SID never gets back to $0.97 again. As mentioned in my previous post, it's possible that some traders have different timeframes, risk/return profiles and strategies to you. So the idea of "just be patient" is not relevant if one can handle a 60% decrease in a position - particularly if SID never returns to $0.97 again.

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m22au said:
Incorrect. I know I can handle a 60% decrease in a position because I've done it before with other stocks.

As for "just be patient" - it's entirely possible that SID never gets back to $0.97 again. As mentioned in my previous post, it's possible that some traders have different timeframes, risk/return profiles and strategies to you. So the idea of "just be patient" is not relevant if one can handle a 60% decrease in a position - particularly if SID never returns to $0.97 again.

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yes we don't have same risk/return, for sure.
I prefer low risk high return trades rather than the contrary.
Why do you want to keep a 60% adverse position rather than getting out fast and coming back later with a better price? Because you got zero money management.
You gamble, you don't trade.

And by the way, SID could return fast to 0.97, 1.5, even 2 dollars.
Why? Because every excess prepares next excess.

CM
 
Chris Mac said:
Why do you want to keep a 60% adverse position rather than getting out fast and coming back later with a better price?
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Because there is no guarantee of a stock trading at a better price in the future.

If a trader is confident that a hypothetical stock is going to fall by over 90%, then they may be happy to sell a partial or whole position now, rather than wait for a higher price, especially if that higher price never comes.

"The thing about shorts is that you often know the endgame entirely. ... Gravity tends to work. But you don’t know when.The whole thing is seductive because the profits are guaranteed if you can hold the position. This can be very hard because a stock can go up five times before it collapses."

https://www.google.com.au/#q=The+wh...tock+can+go+up+five+times+before+it+collapses.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...858186385?nk=10ca62159041a10aa5e077ee40e7da78

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m22au said:
Because there is no guarantee of a stock trading at a better price in the future.

If a trader is confident that a hypothetical stock is going to fall by over 90%, then they may be happy to sell a partial or whole position now, rather than wait for a higher price, especially if that higher price never comes.

"The thing about shorts is that you often know the endgame entirely. ... Gravity tends to work. But you don’t know when.The whole thing is seductive because the profits are guaranteed if you can hold the position. This can be very hard because a stock can go up five times before it collapses."

https://www.google.com.au/#q=The+wh...tock+can+go+up+five+times+before+it+collapses.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...858186385?nk=10ca62159041a10aa5e077ee40e7da78

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m22au, again you think about macro and fundamentals and forget about market action and money management.

For example, you love to short SID, right? Good short below USD 0.97 ?
Sadly, stock is already at 1.26.
A "little" +81% rebound from the lows.

sid us 3.gif


Lot of people got broke with good short ideas but bad implementation.
Again, timing is KEY.

CM
 
Chris Mac said:
m22au, again you think about macro and fundamentals and forget about market action and money management.

For example, you love to short SID, right? Good short below USD 0.97 ?
Sadly, stock is already at 1.26.
A "little" +81% rebound from the lows.

View attachment 156802

Lot of people got broke with good short ideas but bad implementation.
Again, timing is KEY.

CM
More...

I'm not sure if you read the article I posted above which profiled John Hempton.
(Did you read the article?)

He has similar views to mine - no need to worry about short-term gyrations if appropriate position sizing is used.

Again I'll quote Hempton, as it seems you may have missed it:

"The thing about shorts is that you often know the endgame entirely. ... Gravity tends to work. But you don’t know when.The whole thing is seductive because the profits are guaranteed if you can hold the position. This can be very hard because a stock can go up five times before it collapses."

and

"To offset that timing risk, we want to have a small stake in hundreds of shorts."

SID could very well go bankrupt. There is no need to worry about a bounce from 0.97 to 1.31 today if it's going much lower than 0.97.

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